This weekend the winter will be over in some parts of Austria, on Saturday the first snow will fall, especially in Lower Austria, for example in the Waldviertel. So far the weather has been easy on the wallet. The cold gave Austria a wide berth in autumn, many heating systems only had to be left on the back burner or in the well-insulated new building some were even turned off until now. After the warmest October in the history of measurements, November has so far been regarding three degrees too mild.
An extremely cold winter is also unlikely. The current seasonal forecast by the EU’s Copernicus climate change service is relatively clear for December, January and February. This calculation compares seasonal forecasts from multiple data centers, including those from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK’s Met Office.
Mild but with caveats
In large parts of Europe, including Austria, the temperatures are said to be 0.5 to one degree above the average for the period 1993 to 2016. The winter is calculated to be even milder in Scandinavia, the Baltic States and Russia. The accuracy of these long-term forecasts is limited, unlike the normal weather forecast for the next few days, but the direction is clear.
Since the values are a three-month average, the forecast does not rule out longer cold spells and heavier snowfall even in the lowlands. After all, a lot can happen in three months. Seasonal forecasts reflect climatic trends over a larger area and for a longer period of time and do not forecast individual events for a specific location.
The problem with the microclimate
In addition, Austria, with its special topography through the Alps, has a special position compared to countries with a uniform landscape, such as Germany and Poland. Especially in winter, the Alps mean that some valleys and basins can decouple from the general weather and develop their microclimate.
Cold air is heavier than warm air and collects at the lowest points, and these are the valleys and basins. It doesn’t take much more than a blanket of snow and a few clear nights, then cold poles like Radstadt (Salzburg), Defereggen (East Tyrol) and Zeltweg (Styria) regularly have minus 15 degrees, while outside the Alps, for example in Linz , Bregenz and Vienna, can be frost-free.
The direction of flow is crucial
How cold or mild a winter will be in Central Europe is determined by the prevailing direction of air flow. Due to the Gulf Stream, the “heat pump and heating”, it is much milder in Europe than in comparable latitudes in North America and Russia.
The seas around Europe, from the Baltic and North Seas to the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, are currently up to four degrees warmer than normal in mid-November. The seas also play an important role in the seasonal forecasts, the models calculate water temperatures and water currents in order to estimate the long-term energy exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere.
However, if the air comes directly from Russia to Austria, i.e. with an easterly flow, there are always cold waves and permafrost even in the lowlands. The cold air on Friday in eastern Austria is such a case, although not too severe. Russia has a continental climate and cools down quickly in autumn as the sun weakens. The cold in Russia is already starting to form, in Siberia it has been measured below minus 20, sometimes even below minus 30 degrees for days.
Winters are becoming increasingly mild
However, a mild winter would not be a real surprise, just a logical consequence – keyword climate crisis. Of all the seasons, winter has warmed up the most in Austria. The last winters in the lowlands were already more than three degrees warmer than in the 1960s. The warmest winter so far was 2006/2007, followed by 2019/2020. In contrast, the winter of 1962/1963 was particularly cold, when Lake Constance, Attersee and Traunsee froze over completely for the last time. In that winter, there was continuous snow in Innsbruck and Graz from mid-November to mid-March.
Surprises are still possible
50 percent of the average energy consumption of a household in Austria is used for heating. A mild winter helps to save energy, and the goal of “Mission 11” issued by the federal government can be more easily achieved. Energy consumption is supposed to drop by eleven percent. There are many indications that winter 2022/23 will be mild, but surprises are still possible.
Even in a relatively mild winter, it can snow a lot, at least regionally. In winter two years ago, East Tyrol and Upper Carinthia were almost completely covered in snow. Last year the Klagenfurt Basin had snow and permafrost for a long time. For this year, the Copernicus climate change service of the EU calculates a comparatively dry western Europe from France to Germany, but an above-average humid Mediterranean area. Some of this precipitation in the south will probably find its way to Austria with one or the other low point in Italy.
