First election after five bad years for the British

Not since Boris Johnson changed the electoral law and held new elections just before Christmas 2019 to force through the Brexit deal with the EU have British voters had the opportunity to use their right to vote to express their opinion about the government.

Meanwhile, Liz Truss managed to be prime minister for 49 days in autumn 2022, shorter than anyone else in the office’s roughly 300-year history. Her so-called mini-budget had disastrous financial consequences and paved the way for her to be replaced by Rishi Sunak. Today’s Prime Minister is the first Hindu and the first person of color to head a British government.

Power shift

Everything suggests that Sunak will have to give up after the election, and that 14 years of conservative rule are thus over. The polls have long been bad for Sunak and the Tories. And although there was little prospect of that changing in the coming months, it came as a surprise to most when, on a rainy May day, he announced that elections would be held in July. Most people thought he would be late until the fall.

When representatives from 650 individual constituencies are to be elected to fill up the British House of Commons, it is Labor under Keir Starmer who is the main contender. Unless something unexpected happens, Sir Keir – a 61-year-old lawyer who has been knighted – will be the country’s next prime minister.

In addition to voters moving to the left in large numbers – although not as far to the left as Starmer’s predecessor Jeremy Corbyn was – Sunak is also being pressured from the right. Right-wing populist, troublemaker and former Brexit general Nigel Farage lures disaffected conservative voters to his Reform UK party with a message of “British values”, immigration cuts and skepticism about Europe.

Difficult for smaller parties

Even those who go further to the right than the Conservatives can end up benefiting Labour. The British electoral system means that the candidate who gets the most votes in a constituency wins the mandate – regardless of whether they get more than or less than 50 percent. Thus, one less vote for the Tories today will be an advantage for Starmer and his people, even if the vote does not go to them.

The system makes it very difficult to challenge the two largest parties. While voters concentrated in a few constituencies can secure individual mandates, voters distributed across the country can prove to be of little value.

Nigel Farage knows this very well. Among other things, he has led the UK Independence Party, which in 2015 received 12.6 per cent support – an eighth of all votes – but only one mandate. It did not go to Farage, who after seven attempts has never been elected to Parliament.

Northern Irish refusal and Scottish secession

When all constituencies have been counted and the mandates distributed, it is time to form a government. That mission goes to the largest party, and their leader becomes prime minister. In order to form a government, you basically need a majority in the House of Commons. In practice, this means just under 325 seats, as the Irish Republicans in Sinn Féin do not show up. They won seven seats in the last election, but refuse to take the parliamentary oath of allegiance to the British monarch.

Both minority government and coalition are virtually unknown in Britain. When the Liberal Democrats ruled together with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015, it was the country’s only coalition government since the Second World War.

A third party that has consolidated its position and enjoys high support in a limited area is the Scottish nationalist party SNP. Leader John Swinney has said he will start new negotiations on secession from the UK if the party secures a majority of Scottish seats. Last time they got 48 out of 56 mandates.

Crises and discontent

Dissatisfaction with the Conservatives runs deep and is due to a number of negative factors. They came to power shortly after the global financial crisis and had to deal with its aftermath, with mounting debt and economic austerity.

During the pandemic, the government partied while the people had to stay at home and avoid contact with others. Many are also disappointed by the result of the EU announcement almost five years ago. And in the wake of the Ukraine war, the government has not been able to get inflation under control.

Sunak and his people are under fire for skyrocketing living costs, a crisis in the public health system, migrants arriving in flimsy boats across the English Channel – and plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – train trouble and sewage polluting rivers and beaches.

The winner gets a difficult job

The many problems are also reflected in the election’s main issues: economy, immigration, health and the environment.

There is hardly any simple recipe for how Britain can be led out of all the crises, but after today’s election we at least know who will get the demanding job in the years to come.