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Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto, the two contenders for the presidency
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Whichever of the two remaining candidates wins Finland’s presidential election on Sunday, the country’s new head of foreign and security policy will be a pro-European cosmopolitan and a strong supporter of Ukraine.
He will take over from incumbent Sauli Niinisto, who is stepping down, in a new era for the country within NATO following it broke with decades of non-alignment to join the Western defense alliance in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The President of Finland works closely with the government and represents the country at NATO meetings, while also acting as Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish Defense Forces.
Former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb of the National Coalition Party narrowly won the first round of voting on January 28 and leads former foreign minister, center-left liberal Pekka Haavisto, by 6-8 percentage points in opinion polls.
“Both are typically urban candidates and have a strong international profile,” said the head of Finland’s Center for Parliamentary Studies, Marku Jokisipila.
Alexander Stubb leads in the presidential election, Finland will vote in a runoff
Jokisipila said the center-right Stubb is the clear favorite based on current support in opinion polls, which show that regarding a third of the electorate supports left-wing and green political parties, while the rest are more or less conservative-leaning.
If Haavisto, who is running for president for the third time, achieves a surprise victory, he will become Finland’s first openly gay president. However, his sexual orientation remains a factor for voters, with recent polls showing that one in three see the fact that he has a male partner as a reason not to support him.
Deeper cooperation with NATO
During the campaign, Stubb deviated from his previous European federalism to appeal to a wider audience while remaining “internationally oriented” and in favor of deeper cooperation with NATO, said political scientist Johanna Vuorelma of the University of Helsinki.
While Green Party member Haavisto said he would stick to current Finnish law, which unequivocally bans nuclear weapons on Finnish territory, Stubb would allow their transport but not their storage in Finland.
“Stubb is ready to go deeper into all cores of NATO,” said Jokisipila of the Center for Parliamentary Studies.
He pointed out that Stubb also supports the idea of having permanent NATO troops in the country, unlike Haavisto, who said he saw no need.
The intrigue in Finland’s presidential race got tangled up in the week of the vote
The question of the limits of Finland’s role in NATO has been in the spotlight since the country signed a defense cooperation agreement with the US in December, giving the US military unhindered access to 15 facilities and areas in Finland where it can also stores military equipment and ammunition.
Finland shares a 1,340km border with Russia, which has opposed the defense pact. Moscow called it a “clear threat to us” and said it would not “leave unanswered the build-up of NATO’s military potential on our border”.
Supporters of nationalist Finland Party candidate Jussi Hala-aho, eliminated in the first round following receiving 19 percent of the vote, may be alienated by the international orientation of the two remaining candidates, Vuorelma said.
“This might mean that many supporters of the Finland Party will abstain from voting, partly in protest and some because both candidates are so similar that the result does not really matter to them,” she said.
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