Financial Impact of Ukraine EU Membership: Expert Estimates and Analysis

2023-12-11 06:27:20

If Ukraine were to join the EU, up to 17 percent of the alliance’s common budget would flow into the country.

The German Economic Institute (IW) estimates the financial impact of full membership on the EU’s current multi-year budget at around 130 to 190 billion euros, according to a report published today. The EU’s multi-year common budget amounts to around 1.1 trillion euros from 2021 to 2027.

The exact amount depends on what assumptions are made regarding agricultural land and population for Ukraine, the report says. In its calculations, the institute assumes 70 to 90 billion euros in agricultural subsidies for the country.

50 to 90 billion euros would go to cohesion policy. These funds are intended to help structurally weak regions grow in order to compensate for economic and social differences in the European regions.

Unanimous decision required

“Given this volume, the EU should be prepared to reform,” the experts continue. Only in this way can the political decision to bind Ukraine more closely to itself with the prospect of accession be credible.

This applies to both the institutional and the fiscal level, i.e. regarding the budget. One suggestion: limiting cohesion spending to the poorer member states.

At the beginning of November, the EU Commission recommended starting accession negotiations with Ukraine. Before the first round of talks, however, the country will have to complete the reforms it has begun. Whether the talks will begin must be decided unanimously by the EU states.

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