2024-10-20 18:48:00
2024 was a highly electoral year, with its backlashes, reversals, joys and disappointments. But to fully understand the sequence, it is better to place it in context.
It’s a habit that we suggest, particularly for its benefits in terms of mental health. As the election approaches, don’t take political statements too seriously. A period of caution to be extended to the days following the counting of the ballot boxes. Because tradition dictates that hot reactions prevail and that the parties talk nonsense: the losers won – in any case they did not experience failure – and the winners lost, or not by a long shot. Note that we are hardly caricatures.
In order to see things clearly, nothing beats the charms of hindsight and long-term perspectives. What trends do each person’s scores reflect? L’Echo zooms out in the company of Pascal Delwit, political scientist at ULB. Glory and decline of the French-speaking parties, here we go!
In the beginning, there are Catholics and socialists
We are in 1919, the first election where universal… male suffrage applies. “During the interwar period, two families dominated,” points out Pascal Delwit. “The social-Christian and the socialist.” Each weighing 35% to 40% in the Belgian landscape. If we put on Walloon glasses, it is the POB socialists who have the upper hand (between 45% and 55%), with Christian Democrats running between 30% and 36%. The third thief, the liberals, look better than in Flanders, between 15% and 20%. Add to that the communists who weigh (up to 21.5% in 1946).
“After the Second World War, we remained in this pattern.” With liberals at a slightly lower level and communists declining.
1965, first big change
The situation changed in 1965, which saw these famous blocks suffer a joint defeatwhile the liberals were on the rise and Walloon parties joined the party, which merged in 1968 within the Walloon Rally (RW). In Wallonia – demographics oblige, we will keep these glasses by default – the PS dropped ten points at once, going from 46.4% to 35.2%.
What happened? “Between 1945 and 1958, the school war and the royal question were highly polarizing.” But there you go. The school pact was signed in 1959, the confessional divide ran out of steam and socio-economic and linguistic themes take over. The turning point between the 1950s and 1960s saw the Liberal Party begin its transformation, abandoning its anticlerical posture to better embrace the socio-economic.
From 1965 to 1981, divergent dynamics
For the PS, this could seem like a lost paradise. That of stability, the socialists oscillating between 34.4% and 37.3%. Unlike social Christians, who declined until 1971 before rebounding better (26.9% in 1978).
As for the Liberals, they are having difficulty consolidating the victory of 1965. The 70s were not fun, below the 20% mark. Its rather Belgian positioning plays tricks on it, underlines Pascal Delwit, in this decade crossed by extensive debates on the structure of the State. “They are confronted with the Walloon Rallywhich, with 20.9% of the votes, became the second Walloon party in 1971, only to decline from 1977.”
“When they reach a peak, the liberals can occasionally get ahead of the socialists in Wallonia.”
After 1981, things shake
In Belgium, federalism was launched and the dawn of the 1980s saw the birth of the Flemish and Walloon regions. Even if a certain community tension remains, the socio-economic is coming back to the forefront. The RW collapses and disappears. Disappearance again: the Belgian Communist Party lost its deputies in 1985 and continued to unravel thereafter.
Socioeconomic we told you: the liberals are rebounding. Signed, between 1981 and 1999, results of between 19.8% and 24.7%. The 21st century is proving more turbulent for the blues. It fluctuates dry. The excellent vintages (28.5% in 2003, 31.1% in 2007 or 28.2% in 2024) rub shoulders with the harshest (19.8% in 1991 or 20.5% in 2019), without forgetting the average vintages. (25.8% in 2014). “When they reach a peak, the liberals can occasionally get ahead of the socialists in Wallonia,” notes the political scientist.
For socialists, it’s the end of stability. From 1981 to 2010, they were involved in Russian setups. This climbs to the exceptional result of 1987 (43.9%) only to plummet to 1999 (29.2%). And so on. Enough to propel us until 2010, the last peak (37.7%). Since then, the PS has had one series of disappointments. Achieving its worst score in 2019 (26.1%), shattering this record in 2024 (22%). Despite their boasting, the Reds are in free fall.
Ecolo and PTB join the dance
Newcomers are rushing into the arena. Starting with Ecolo, which started timidly in 1977, but settled around 6%-7% in the ’80s. Then the mechanics we know set in motion: in fairly short cycles, the greens alternate between summits and ravines. Cardboard in 1999 (18.3%); reduced in 2003 (7.5%), 2014 (8.2%) and 2024 (6.9%); honorable scores (between 12.3% and 13.5%) in 1991, 2007 or 2010.
Another player who has become essential, the PTBwhich has been at the polls since 1974 in Flanders, under the name TPO-Amada, in other words “All power to the workers”. Result? Between 0.5% and 1%. Change of name in 1979, then of strategy. Paid, since this starts to move around 2009-2010. Before becoming significant in 2014: 5.5% in Wallonia. Takeoff in 2019 (13.8%) then decline in 2024 (11.6%).
For the sake of precision, a parenthesis on (the late) radical right. At the extreme, the National Front recorded two performances, in 1995 (5.5%) and in the 2003-2007 sequence (5.6%). As for the Popular Party, it peaked in 2014, at 4.5%.
“The main idea of the PRL-FDF federation was to become essential in Brussels.”
And Brussels in all this?
So let’s take off these Walloon glasses and look at the electoral destinies of Brussels, which have their own dynamics. The proof is with the FDF, renamed DéFI in 2015, which took its first steps in 1964. The electoral breakthrough took place in 1970; in 1976, the FDF was propelled as the first party in the capital. “The results are spectacular, analyzes Pascal Delwit, especially in the south-east.”
It remains that glory is fleeting; the first signs of running out of steam were visible in 1981, leading to a decline in 1985 and 1987. The FDF becomes an “archipelago party”, combining areas of strength and weak presence outside. From 1992 to 2011, the FDF formed an alliance with the PRL, all of which transformed into MR in 2002. The divorce was finalized in 2011, against the backdrop of the 6th state reform. The rest is known. The archipelago is holding on, thanks to the three musketeers of the time: Bernard Clerfayt, Didier Gosuin and Olivier Maingain. The areas of strength disappear, or are victims of erosion. In 2024, it’s the double berezina; DéFI’s vital prognosis is engaged. On this subject, the aborted marriage with Les Engagés will go down in history as a missed opportunity.
About marriage of convenience. “The main idea of the PRL-FDF federation was to become essential in Brussels,” says Pascal Delwit. Banco! In 1995, the team exceeded the PS. Better: in 1999, the PS lost the minister-presidency! Except that afterwards, the Liberals are relegated to the opposition from 2004 to 2024. What does it matter if the Liberals double the PS again in 2009; the MR will have to wait until 2024 to win the prize.
In Brussels, the PS really ran two different campaigns.”
Weakened in the ’80s, “the PS found color again with Charles Picqué and the evolution of Brussels sociology”. There are ups and downs, until the double in 2024 when the MR overwhelms it on all levels. Even if the PS is putting up resistance, the backlash in its bastions is partially offset by a small surge in the southeast. Northwest versus southeast. “The PS led two different campaigns,” notes Pascal Delwit.
For good reason, the PTB is on its heels. PTB which exploded in 2019 and 2024, even if its presence is not uniform. The fact remains that the Marxist party, now worried, did not succeed in repeating, in October, its success of June. “Housing, cars, Gaza or demands of the Muslim community: this positioning of the PTB, but also of the PS, has its limits, believes Pascal Delwit. Each party has limits. And you will always find someone who goes further than you.” That someone, in 2024, is Team Fouad Ahidar. “PTB and PS have a stone in their shoe. It remains to be seen whether this phenomenon will last. In the meantime, the Brussels divide is strengthening.” The canal, more frontier than ever.
Let’s not forget Ecolo which, over time, has lastingly asserted itself as a city partyeven if its presence is weaker in the popular communes. The cruel streak of 2024 does not prevent honorable scores in October: between 18% and 23% in Auderghem, Etterbeek, Forest, Saint-Gilles or Woluwe-Saint-Pierre, plus a first place at 28.45% in Ixelles.
Let’s finish with Les Engagés. “In 1999, we could wonder about their future disappearance.” This was without counting on the Joëlle Milquet effect, which will have faded with her. What about the Prévot effect in 2024? “The Engagés have bounced back, but that has nothing to do with Wallonia!” The party’s path, also in an archipelago situation, is far from being clear-cut.
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