2023-10-31 00:41:00
The rains of recent days attributed to the phenomenon known as “The boy” in the core region stimulated expectations of a good sowing ahead of the agricultural campaign 2024 which, according to private estimates, promises to be better than the current one, crossed by a historic drought.
Consulted by PERFIL, the market analyst Guido D’Angelo explained that 90% of the central area of the coarse crop “accumulated more than 30 millimeters between October 20 and 24″, a fact celebrated by agricultural producers.
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“Although they arrived late to add some points to the wheat yield, they are decisive in stopping the decline in yields. In addition, soybean planting has been unblocked. It is estimated a planting area of 5.1 million hectares in the core region, 11% more than the previous campaign,” stated the economist.
In this sense, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) indicates that the areas that benefited most from the rainfall were Santa Fe, the south of Córdoba and the northwest of Buenos Aires, which received between 40 y 100 mm.
At the same time, the Rosario entity pointed out that the weather situation of the last few days “has allowed accumulate records so far in October that reach, and They even exceed the statistical average“of the tenth month of the year.
“The continuity and recurrence of rainfall throughout the month seems to indicate that finally the positive influence of El Niñovery present in the extreme northeast of the country for two months, is beginning to reach the heart of the Pampas region,” adds the BCR report.
In the same line, the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) noted the positive effects of “El Niño” by highlighting that in several locations in Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and north of Buenos Aires, rainfall exceeded 80 mm.
For the director of the Natural Resources Research Center (CIRN) of INTA, Pablo Mercurithe fallen water and what is expected in the coming weeks “are a sign of change in the water scarcity situation with which the sector coexisted for the last almost 4 agricultural campaigns.”
From his perspective, “the occurrence of more frequent events and their regional coverage during the spring are the beginning of a more optimistic trajectory in the behavior of rainfall.” And that is why “it would be expected that during the campaign continue the supply of water for fine cropsmany already at the beginning of reproductive stages, and for the continuity of the sowing of long-cycle soybean and corn crops.”
The perspectives of the 2024 campaign
According to D’Angelo, following the catastrophic campaign of the current year, with a loss estimated at USD 25,000 million by the Ministry of Economy, it is expected “a productive recovery” by 2024.
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In numbers, the specialist anticipated a growth of 70% year-on-year of the grain harvest, with a volume of 136.6 million tons.
However, the expert explained that this amount is closer to the campaigns prior to the drought and is a recovery and not exponential growththe productive level. “If the rebound is so high, it is because the drought that occurred this year was that strong,” she assessed.
Regarding the adverse weather conditions that the field faced throughout 2023, the impact on exports was strongly felt as 33 million tons less of grains, oils and by-products so far.
From Fundación Capital, they predicted that with quantities recovering and prices falling, agricultural exports are projected for USD 32.6 billion by 2024an improvement of USD 13.18 billion compared to this year.
“He soy complex It will present sales of USD 20,400 million, being USD 2,840 million for soybeans, USD 12,010 million for pellets and USD 5,550 million for oil. Meanwhile, corn will exhibit exports for USD 9,165 million and wheat for USD 3,050 million,” the consulting firm predicted.
However, the company founded by the economist Martin Redrado warned that the scenario “is not without risks and it will be necessary to monitor the climatic context that might affect the final volume of the harvest.”
Complaints from the agricultural sector due to lack of fuel
The lack of fuel throughout the country affected the beginning of planting and both Argentine Rural Society (SRA) as the Argentine Rural Confederations (CRA) expressed their concern regarding the shortage of a central input for the sector, which would require 1,651 million liters of diesel this year.
“Faced with the start of sowing and taking into account that The field consumes 1 of every 3 liters of diesel sold in Argentina, “It is essential to once once more have a regularized market in availability and price,” he indicated. Ezequiel de Freijochief economist of the Institute of Economic Studies and International Negotiations (IEEyNI) of the SRA.
For its part, the CRA warned that “The lack of fuel in all provinces is causing delays in agricultural work, seriously affecting the start of this new campaign“.
Furthermore, they expressed that The situation of need drives price abuse, with the subsequent appearance of quotas and values above normal. “It happens thate producers are forced to pay high prices in the black market for fuelwhich undoubtedly adds production costs and reduces profitability margins,” they denounced.
MFN / ED
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