Key points from the article:
- EUR/USD : Important support at 1.0500 might lead to a rebound
- Can the Fed be even more aggressive?
|
Bias |
Résistance |
Support |
Remark |
|
|
Neutral |
97,3 |
91,5 |
||
|
Neutral |
9,7457 |
0,697 |
||
|
Neutral |
1,5055 |
1,4318 |
||
|
Neutral |
1,0402 |
1,009 |
||
|
Neutral |
0,854 |
0,8203 |
Bearish Slant in Resistance |
|
|
Neutral |
140 |
134,1 |
MME34 en support |
|
|
Bearish |
1,0934 |
1,05 |
Oversold |
|
|
Neutral |
170 |
159,05 |
Intermediate resistance 164.30 |
|
|
Bearish |
1,33 |
1,225 |
||
|
Bearish |
0,7219 |
0,638 |
Oversold |
|
|
Bullish |
0,99 |
0,8457 |
Surachat |
|
|
Neutral |
1,289 |
1,2975 |
||
|
Bullish |
135 |
126,95 |
Surachat |
Can the Fed be even more aggressive?
The US Dollar held up once morest a basket of currencies yesterday as investors gauged how much of the Federal Reserve’s expected decision to raise rates tonight was already priced in.
The dollar index hit a 20-year high last week as the US central bank is expected to be more aggressive than its peers in tightening policy, with inflation hitting its fastest pace fast in 40 years.
But investors are also wondering if most of the Fed’s actions are already priced in and if the dollar’s rise should come to a halt. Operators might buy the rumor and sell the fact.
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and announce plans to shrink its balance sheet by $9 trillion when it wraps up its two-day meeting tonight.
Fed funds futures traders expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to rise to 2.89% by the end of the year, from 0.33% currently.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments following the meeting will be scrutinized for any further indications on whether the central bank will continue to raise rates to combat rising prices, even if the economy weakens.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings hit a record high in March as labor shortages persist, suggesting employers may continue to raise wages and help keep inflation at an uncomfortable level.
The main US economic release this week will be the government’s April jobs report, released on Friday.
Le Australian dollars rebounded following the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its bank rate by 25 basis points to 0.35%, the first hike in more than a decade, and announced further measures to come as part of its massive pandemic stimulus package.
Le japanese yen held just above a 20-year low once morest the dollar, hit on Thursday, when the Bank of Japan reinforced its commitment to maintaining ultra-low interest rates by promising to buy daily quantities unlimited amounts of bonds to defend its return objective.
The Japanese currency held above the psychological level of 130.00 following hitting 131.26 on Thursday, its lowest level since April 2002.
EUR/USD: The important support at 1.0500 might trigger a rebound
The euro remains close to its support at 1.0500 ahead of the Fed. Concerns regarding inflation, growth and energy insecurity due to sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have driven the euro down 14% once morest the dollar over the past three months.
The European Central Bank may have to raise interest rates as early as July to prevent high inflation from taking hold, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told German newspaper Handelsblatt yesterday.
The trend is bearish below the 13 and 34 period moving averages.
However, the Euro stabilized above the March 2017 low at 1.0470. The RSI is in the oversold zone and the price gap with the moving averages is significant, which suggests a rebound towards 1.0760, former support soon joined by the MM34, which might act as resistance.
In the event of a break of 1.0500, the next support is at the January 2017 low at 1.0340.
Evolution of the euro once morest the dollar in daily data:
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