column
The 39th at Tokyo Racecourse on the 20thFebruary Stakes(GI, Da 1600m) will be held. In addition to Cafe Pharoah, who challenges consecutive championships as a defending champion, T M South Dan, who won the Negishi Stakes in the outpost, and Suave Aramis, who won the Tokai Stakes, a wide variety of members such as Red Le Zele and Sodashi White Horse will run.
Here, we will read the development from the good running conditions of February Stakes and the assumed members, and will be a hint for betting tickets.Dangerous popular horseAsRed le zeleI want to take up.
■ First GI title won in “Kanazawa”
First of all, the previous run of Red le ZeleJBC SprintTo analyze.
Starting from the large outer frame, horse racing proceeded near 6th Sotonome along the way. He cut into the inside from the front to secure a position and advanced from around the 3rd corner. When he opened the front from the 4th corner, he accelerated at a stretch and ran through the deep dirt along the ratch in the first place.
Despite the track bias of outward growth, in addition to extending the last leg from the innermost part, including the track record of running well in 2nd place at Dubai Golden Shaheen (Madan GI) held last year, ” It can be evaluated as “a GI horse that maintains the highest speed ability in the domestic dirt world and can use the last leg steadily regardless of the number.” Also, in addition to running well in 4th place in February Stakes last year, it is natural that expectations for a good run will increase this time when jockey Yuga Kawada, who knows all regarding the horse, will continue to ride.
However, in February Stakes in recent years, in addition to the fact that horses in the previous run region have not been able to win, horses weighing less than 500 kg in the past 10 years are[2-4-1-55]which is a percentage of the number of runners. As the unsuccessful results show, Red le Zele, whose “horse rating” is inferior in the Tokyo Dirt in the midwinter, which requires power, remains a little worried.
■ Power Baba shown by the messenger “Yamame”
Next, let’s analyze the performance by horse weight in February Stakes over the past 10 years.
Of the 30 horses that ran well in the betting ticket, 23 were all large horses with a horse weight of 500 kg or more, and only 7 horses weighing less than 500 kg were involved in the betting ticket. Last year’s 2nd Air Spinel, 20th champion Mozu Ascot, 19th 3rd Kafuji Take, Nonkono Yume who showed 2 better runs, 15th 2nd incantation, 12th 2nd Silk Fortune is applicable, but all of these 6 horses had a good run history within 3rd place in the dirt prize of 1600m or more.
In addition, the debut races of Air Spinel, Mozu Ascot, Incantation, and Silk Fortune are all turf races. It would have been a riding ground suitable for turf horses that did not require. However, this year’s Tokyo Dirt Baba has become more powerful than usual due to the effects of spraying antifreeze agents and the rain last weekend, making it easier to watch and requiring more power. There is.
Yamame, who became the driving force behind the refund of more than 14 million trifecta in the final race last Saturday, also had the experience of winning overwhelmingly at the Monbetsu Racetrack, where power is required at the bad horse race, and the current Tokyo Dirt Baba that needs power It would have been possible to match and produce a high dividend.
In other words, compared to Baba at the time when he made a good fight in 4th place in February Stakes last year, this year’s Baba is a condition that requires more power, so it is necessary to determine the suitability for Baba. As mentioned above, horses weighing less than 500 kg have a record of[2-4-1-55]which is not as good as the number of runners, and in addition, it is a year with a different Rote from last year. When it comes to the first prize in the Central Horse Racing, it is expected that the pace of the road will be confusing and the person will go forward, and even if he stretches his legs from a good position, he will reach the bulletin board.
■ “Horse rank” and “sustainability” necessary for good running
Next, the good running pattern of February Stakes will be analyzed from the ranking on the 3rd floor.
・1st place[2-5-3-2]16.7% win rate, 58.3% streak rate, 83.8% return win rate
・2nd place[1-1-1-6]11.1% win rate, 22.2% streak rate, 33.3% return win rate
・3rd place[3-0-4-4]27.3% win rate, 27.3% streak rate, 63.6% return win rate
・4th and 5th place[4-3-1-19]14.8% win rate, 25.9% streak rate, 29.6% return rate
・6th place～【0-1-1-97】 0.0% win rate, 1.0% streak rate, 2.0% return win rate
In this way, the “fastest horse to climb” has achieved good results with a double win rate of over 80%, last year’s 2nd Air Spinel, 2020 3rd Sunrise Nova, 19th 2nd Gold Dream, 18th 1st Nonkono Yume, 2017 He has been involved in betting tickets for 6 consecutive years with 3rd place Kafuji Take and 2nd place Nonkono Yume in 2016.
Red le Zele went up in February Stakes last year to finish 4th in 2nd place, and went up in Tokyo Hai (Oi JpnII) 2 runs before to reach 3rd place with the fastest end leg. Although I can use the last leg stably for the first place and the short run with the leg, it is the last leg at a short distance such as up to 1400 m. Last year, by going through Negishi Stakes, I kept my last leg behind and pushed to 4th place once morest a relaxed pace, but this year it will be a Rote via a sprint grade race in Kanazawa, which is a small turn. You may be confused by the slow pace.
In addition, although Lord Kanaloa’s pieces at the Tokyo Dirt held this time have won two wins, the double win rate is only 16.7%, which is a slump, and in addition to this year’s heavy prizes such as Danon Scorpion and Red Galan last week. The current situation where horses in the same stables are not able to keep up with the flow, such as betraying popularity and running around, will also be a negative factor. Considering the delicacy of betting tickets from the above concerns, Red le Zele is evaluated as “erased”.
In “Part 2”, I will introduce the favorite to replace Red le Zele, and the conclusion including 4 Anomas.
Sentence, Kouki Nishitate (SPREAD editorial department)
