Fear of new mass emigration from Venezuela after the election

Since Maduro became president over eleven years ago, 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country, according to the UN. The main reason is economic misery, which is due to a mixture of economic mismanagement, sanctions and political unrest.

The fact that the former union leader once again ran away with the victory has caused unrest in the entire region. Countries such as Chile and Colombia are now preparing for a new mass emigration.

Maduro’s victory is disputed, neither the opposition nor Western countries have confidence in the official results, and the UN has criticized the country for a lack of transparency in the election. Among those who thought that the time had finally come for a change of power, the disappointment is great.

– There were millions of Venezuelans who expected a political change, and who are now frustrated, says Jesus Seguias, head of the poll institute Datincorp.

– Now they are trapped in uncertainty and have to decide whether they want to leave the country and do the same as relatives who have already left, he tells the AP news agency.

Hard fight for work

There is also great concern in countries such as Peru and Colombia, the two Latin American countries that have received the most immigrants from Venezuela.

– Everyone is worried because more immigrants are coming, says Diana Yarange, a seamstress at the largest outdoor clothing market in Peru.

She is frustrated by yet another morning with few customers, which she believes is primarily due to the competition with Venezuelans, who, according to a local trade union, now make up 20 percent of the 100,000 sellers at the market.

– It will be a battle for jobs for us, she says.

Border control tightened

The great dissatisfaction among millions of street vendors has become something that the governments of both Peru, Chile and Brazil have to deal with. In recent days, all three countries have tightened border controls for newcomers after violent protests broke out in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas.

– It is not that there will be a wave of immigration now. What can happen is that it can increase and become more extensive, says Chile’s Minister of the Interior Carolina Tohá. – We have to prepare, she adds.

Over the past five years, the country has welcomed hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans. Recently, the Department of the Interior announced that it will use thermal cameras to track immigrants without valid entry papers at the border. Last year, the government deployed armed forces at the border with Bolivia and Peru to control the many people trying to cross the border in the Andes. Now they are considering sending reinforcements to the area.

Fewer get tourist visas

Skepticism of immigrants has increased in Chile, where an angry mob set fire to a tent camp for Venezuelan migrants in 2021. The same has happened in Peru and Ecuador, where it has now become much more difficult for Venezuelans to obtain tourist visas. But according to experts, this has only led to more illegal immigration.

– The immigrants will come anyway. Trying to stop it by closing borders and not giving migrants safe ways to seek asylum increases vulnerability, human trafficking, dangers and deaths, says Cristián Doña-Reveco, a Chilean sociologist at the University of Nebraska.

Organized criminal groups, such as Venezuela’s largest gang, Tren de Aragua, are taking advantage of the situation. Desperate Venezuelan migrants are easy to fool. The gang has now established itself in Chile, one of Latin America’s richest and safest countries, which has caused great concern among the inhabitants.

The number of murders almost doubled from 2021 to 2022. In response to the grim development, the country’s leftist President Gabriel Boric has strengthened the police budget and tightened immigration policy.

Proposal for prison

It has also created more xenophobia among most Chileans. In a survey conducted by the polling institute Cadem in April 2023, 77 percent of respondents said immigration is undesirable. Five years earlier, the proportion was 31 per cent. In a survey conducted at the beginning of August, after the elections in Venezuela, 61 percent said they were negative about Venezuelan asylum seekers.

– Chile was a peaceful country, and crime was insignificant, not so bloody, says José Parra, a 73-year-old pensioner. He points out that the country is now experiencing more murders, kidnappings and extortion.

– That is why people have become so xenophobic, he says.

Immigration policy has become an important topic before Chile elects a new president next year. There are many proposals, but one involves creating an EU-inspired quota system, so that the asylum seekers are distributed among all countries in Latin America.

Another proposal has been to punish migrants without a visa with a year and a half in prison, but the first led to a heated debate in the National Assembly.

Trace grandparent stream

Colombia is the country that until now has been most friendly towards Venezuelans. About 2 million have received temporary protection. This means that they can go to school, work and receive emergency medical treatment for ten years.

But here, too, goodwill has begun to wane, and it is highly uncertain whether the scheme will be continued.

Ronald Rodríguez of the Rosario University in Bogotá points out that the government lacks the resources to deal with a new wave of immigration, which will probably consist of parents and grandparents of highly educated Venezuelans who have already settled in Bogotá, Santiago and Lima.

The opposition in Venezuela hoped to lure them back if they won the election, but now the opposite may happen.

– People have already got their elderly relatives across the border so that they can be together in the next few months until the presidential inauguration. But if the situation does not improve, it will be a permanent current, says Rodriguez.