2023-10-28 16:07:45
The Los Angeles Rams‘ fantasy outlook revolves around a backfield committee while the Dallas Cowboys‘ fantasy preview asks if Tony Pollard is still the elite fantasy football option we assumed he would be.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -6.5
Total: 45
Rams implied points: 19.3
Cowboys implied points: 25.8
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford: Given the excitement around Puka Nacua and the return of Cooper Kupp, it’s easy not to be aware that Stafford has one – count’em: one – game with multiple touchdown passes this season. And that’s not even the oddest Stafford split:
Weeks 1-4 (without Kupp): 307.3 passing yards per game
Weeks 5-7 (with Kupp): 226.3
Other than lacking yardage through the air, touchdown equity, or rushing upside, Stafford is a viable fantasy option. He’s easily outside of my top 15 QBs this week and joins Mayfield in that “two viable pass catchers, no personal value” tier at the position.
Dak Prescott: Recency bias is a helluva drug.
The last time we saw Prescott was on prime time (Week 6: MNF at LAC), and he showed out. He was fantasy’s top quarterback for the week with 272 passing yards and a touchdown on top of 10 fantasy points scored with his legs. He played a great game and got Dallas the win.
MORE: Will Dak Prescott Keep Running?
That doesn’t matter this week. The Rams are an above-average defense in preventing yards through the air, and the rushing production isn’t something near sustainable – Prescott had 4.5 points on the ground through five weeks to open this season.
Week 6 was Prescott’s first top-15 finishes of the season, and I think you’d be lucky if he made it back-to-back performances at that level.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams: Last weekend, Williams (ankle) was placed on injured reserve and will thus be out for the next three games (four weeks due to the Week 10 bye). That means he can return to action in Week 12 once morest the Cardinals and hopefully round into form for the fantasy playoffs.
For forward-thinking managers, the Rams do get the Giants on extended rest during the fantasy Super Bowl (Week 17). If Williams’ manager is in win-now mode and interested in selling off Los Angeles’ bell cow, you’d be well served to listen.
Darrell Henderson: Last weekend, the Rams activated Henderson and elected to feature him (39-29 snap edge over Royce Freeman) in his 2023 debut. With little heads up that he would be dressed, let alone relied upon, Henderson was given 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) once morest the Steelers. He rewarded bold fantasy managers with a RB15 finish.
Of course, this matchup is a little bit tougher. Instead of getting the sixth-worst per-carry run defense, this week, Henderson faces a rested Cowboys defense that has missed the second-fewest tackles per game this season.
Expecting a repeat performance (66 yards and a touchdown) is a bit optimistic, but he does profile as the lead in this backfield. That means 15-18 touches, a role that is good enough to land him as a solid Flex play in my Week 8 rankings.
Royce Freeman: It was Freeman, not Henderson, who led this team in rushing last week, and he looked good in the process. He picked up at least four yards on eight of his 12 carries and was on the field for Los Angeles’ final drive as they tried to level the score.
Henderson started last week with a hefty workload. I have a hard time thinking that isn’t the case this week as well. Freeman’s secondary role isn’t one I am targeting in this matchup (outside of my top 35 at the position), but he very much deserves to remain rostered. He might emerge as a viable option next week once morest the Packers when bye weeks kick back in.
Zach Evans: Zip. Zero. Evans wasn’t on the field for an offensive snap in Week 7, a week that started with him profiling as the starter. Life comes at you fast.
There’s no reason to keep Evans rostered in fantasy leagues. Given the hoops they went through to beef up their backfield last week, I’m not sure why the Rams roster him.
Tony Pollard: Dallas’ bell cow has been disappointing of late; there’s just no two ways regarding it. He doesn’t have a top-10 finish since his RB5 finish in Week 1 once morest the Giants. Forget a top-10 performance; he hasn’t found the end zone since that game.
He saved you in Week 6 with a late 60-yard reception, and his pace for 71 receptions is impressive, but being under 4.0 yards per carry is a problem. We expected explosive plays on a regular basis this season, but he hasn’t had a run gaining more than 16 yards in October.
MORE: Should You Trade Tony Pollard?
On the plus side, he has accounted for 76.6% of Dallas’ RB touches. He’s run into a stacked back on 17.7% of his carries, and that’s proven to be a tough way to make a living. His role and single-play upside keep him in the must-start territory, and the hope is that with Prescott trending up, defenses will change how they approach this offense.
I remain in on Pollard and would very much look to acquire his services now that we are past the bye.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Coup: The Game 3 Blues?
After consecutive 15+ point games to open his season, Kupp fell flat last week with as many drops as catches on his way to a disappointing 3.4-point performance. In his third game last season, following a pair of 25+ point contests, Kupp gave you just 6.4 points once morest the Cardinals.
Nobody is perfect. After that dud last season, Kupp cleared 19 points in each of his next two games, one of which was once morest Dallas (seven catches for 125 yards and a touchdown). Nothing has changed over the past week for me — Kupp is a top-five fantasy receiver who should be counted on with the utmost confidence.
Puka Nacua: Last week was just another jaw-dropping performance from the rookie. Frankly, it has become the status quo. His eight-catch, 154-yard performance once morest Pittsburgh included a catch-of-the-year candidate and continued excellence in terms of earning targets. He leads the league in route wins through Week 7.
He has cleared 115 receiving yards in the majority of games and finds new ways to impress every week. In a year where standout WR2s are having their fair share of problems (Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle come to mind), Nacua seems to be inevitable.
I understand that Kupp had a down week and that Nacua was held in check the week prior, but this duo is shaping up to be the one fantasy managers can most count on – both are top-15 plays for me this week. I don’t see that changing any time soon.
Tutu Atwell: He gets credit for the 31-yard TD last week, but are we sure that was even intended for him? Per the Week 8 Cheat Sheet, he ranked fourth on this team in route participation last week (65.6%) and has just four catches (eight targets) in the three games since Kupp returned.
I’m not sure he needs to remain rostered, but with three scores in his past five games, my guess is that your league mates will think higher of him than I do. If you can pair Atwell with another player for a minor upgrade, I would.
Could you pull off Atwell and Adam Thielen for an underachieving star like Chris Olave? Maybe Atwell and Alvin Kamara might land you Tony Pollard? I’d consider testing the waters – he’s not going to rank inside of my top 45 for the foreseeable future.
CeeDee Lamb: He checks all the spreadsheet boxes. The route win rate. The ability to separate. Take avoidance. All of it. And yet, he doesn’t have a weekly finish better than WR10 this season and has as many finishes outside of the top 30 as he does inside the top 20.
With more catches than any teammate has catches and more 20+ yard receptions than all other Cowboys combined, his alpha role isn’t in question. A.J. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase are similarly dominant receivers – they both cleared 125 yards when up once morest these Rams.
Lamb is a WR1 for me this week, and I remain bullish on him. The Cowboys are going to have to score in bunches during the fantasy postseason, and Lamb holds the key to them being able to do that.
Week 14 vs. Eagles
Week 15 at Bills
Week 16 at Dolphins
Week 17 vs. Lions
Brandin Cooks: He scored before the bye, and that resulted in easily his best performance of the season (WR19 – his first top-60 finish of the season). If you want to stash him and speculate that he is the clear-cut WR2 in this offense, fine. But you’re not starting him this week, and I don’t see that changing any time soon.
Michael Gallup: His 10 targets in the Week 6 win was encouraging. Or maybe it was discouraging. It took 10 looks for him to score 3.9 fantasy points, and that’s … inefficient. He has seen 28 targets over his past four games, but until he does something, those looks are empty calories.
He’s a slight underdog if you’re betting on who will be the WR2 in Dallas moving forward, and, to be honest, I’m not at all confident that winning that competition would result in consistent fantasy value.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee: Five catches for 45 yards.
No, that’s not the stat line from Higbee last week. That’s his total production since Kupp returned. Total. He has more name recognition than the names next to him on your waiver wire, but until name recognition puts fantasy points on the scoreboard, I’m not all that interested.
You can do much better than Higbee this week and moving forward – I don’t care how deep your league is.
Jake Ferguson: I was as guilty as anyone in boosting Ferguson up the ranks following an encouraging first four games this season (25 targets and a touchdown). I clearly forgot that it is illegal for non-elite tight ends to string productive outings together; that’s on me.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
In his past two games, Fergalicious has totaled four catches and 43 yards. Such is life at the TE position. I still have him ranked at the top of the streamer tier, but if Gallup/Cooks are going to develop into legitimate threats, Ferguson might well fade off our radar before Halloween.
Should You Start Darrell Henderson or Alexander Mattison?
Henderson’s role should be trending up with a full work week, while the gap between Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers is shrinking.
Both of these backs carry some risk, but I do lean toward Henderson following his impressive season debut (66 yards and a TD once morest the Steelers) over Mattison, who has been starting all year, and yet, is still searching for his first 20-yard rush and his first rushing score.
Should You Start Jake Ferguson or Dalton Schultz?
I think both of these tight ends are the second option in their respective passing games, so give me the offense that is built around the aerial attack. If it’s up to Dallas, they will pound Pollard and call it a day, a luxury the Houston Texans don’t have.
Dalton Schultz has scored in three straight games, and I believe he holds the edge in both scoring equity and target volume in this head-to-head matchup.
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