In recent statements, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Pedro Francke, has listed the measures that it would prioritize in 2022, such as promotion to private investment, the solution of mining conflicts and the execution of the Budget 2022 for closing gaps.
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Likewise, he has reviewed the macroeconomic and fiscal results of 2021, highlighting that the new growth projection for 2021 (13%) is one of the strongest in the region and responds to the measures taken to reactivate the economy.
Is it necessary to affirm this? In the following note, we review the comments made by the minister on the progress of the economy in 2021, which are also part of a recent opinion column published in this newspaper.
“We closed last year with 80% of the target population vaccinated with two doses and a GDP growth of 13%. These are results that substantially exceed the projections that independent observers made a few months ago “
True
The projections of the areas of economic studies and the BCR regarding him PBI from 2021 they were adjusted up in the fourth quarter of the year. The BBVA, for example, it adjusted from 9% (July projection) to 12.2% (October projection). The BCR adjusted up its 11.9% from September to 13.3% in December. Scotiabank’s economic studies area adjusted its projection from 9% in the middle of the year to 12.3% in the third quarter.
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The same Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) in the previous administration projected a growth of 10% for this year; the additional 3% is an exceptional achievement that deserves to be highlighted. It is not only the expected rebound following a year of pandemic, it is also a product of the measures taken to reactivate the economy
It’s not exact
The Report of MEF Macroeconomic Projections Update, which dates from the management of the former portfolio owner, Waldo Mendoza, projected 10% growth in 2021.
However, more than the measures to reactivate the economy, analysts warn that these results are due to the absence of a third wave in 2021. This is stated in the report of the BBVA: “[…] Third wave It did not materialize, which has allowed an increase in capacity in shopping centers and restaurants; it also favored the mobilization of people. In addition, liquidity measures (withdrawal of funds from AFP and CTS) continued to support family spending “.
In turn, in October, the economic studies area of Scotiabank warned of an upward bias in its projection of 12.3% for 2021 due to the dynamics of some sectors. “Within the Services sector, the flexibility of immobilization and social distancing measures -in a context of significant reduction of Covid19 cases and progress in the vaccination process- allowed a greater flow of customers to restaurants”.
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“All of this, while in parallel we reduced the fiscal deficit from 8.9% to less than 2.8%, which among the main economies in the region is the lowest. These are the hard data “
It’s not exact
Although the reduction of the fiscal deficit was achieved, this is largely due to the inflow of extraordinary resources resulting from the voluntary payment of tax debts carried out by large mining companies such as green Hill Y Buenaventura.
In recent interviewCarlos Oliva, former economy minister, commented on this reduction in 2021: “When you see the final figure, you see a very positive drop. That is good. But that is an illusion, it is what I hold. We are not looking at the structural issues. We are not recognizing that part of that 3 point drop is due to extraordinary income. Either for the payment of debts of a couple of mining companies, or for international prices. Economic growth has been stronger than expected “, He said.
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