The risk hangs in the balance for Russia. By focusing too much on maintaining its sphere of influence in Ukraine and Georgia, it might lose what remains of its ascendancy in Sweden and Finland, just a stone’s throw from St. Petersburg.
→ ANALYSIS. Vladimir Putin tests Westerners in Geneva
That’s the whole paradox: the Kremlin, which makes the non-enlargement of NATO a sine qua non for withdrawing its troops from the eastern periphery of Ukraine, might definitively tip Helsinki and Stockholm into the Atlantic Alliance. . These two countries have followed a policy of non-alignment since the Cold War, even if their accession to the European Union in 1995 clearly linked them to the Western camp.
Cold
For his wishes, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö warned, in the event of an armed attack. “Finland’s room for maneuver and freedom also include the possibility of military alignment and of asking for NATO membership”, he warned. Prime Minister Sanna Marin did the same during her New Year speech: “Finland retains the possibility of applying for NATO membership”, and D’“Intensify European cooperation in the field of security and defense”.
In Finland as in Sweden, public opinion is still attached to the principle of neutrality. But in ten years in Sweden, Nato supporters have gone from 17% to 46%. A development that prompted Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson to recall the red line not to be crossed, Friday, January 7. “In Sweden, it is we who decide our foreign policy and (of our policy) security, and with whom we choose to cooperate. “
Finland, which shares 1,300 kilometers of border with Russia, maintained regular contacts with Moscow. But that relationship ended in December, since Kiev was threatened with a potential invasion. These links have, however, proved useful in the past for mediating. “The experience of managing relations between East and West makes it a European country par excellence, capable of providing its neighbors with very useful diplomacy”, underlines Markku Jokisipilä, historian and political scientist at the University of Turku.
A force of mediation in suspense
It was in Helsinki that the agreements between the United States, Russia and Europe were signed in 1975 to record the non-use of force and the inviolability of borders. It was once more in Helsinki, on July 16, 2018, that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump organized their first bilateral summit. The Finnish capital also proposed to be the scene of the Biden-Poutin meeting last June, before the choice fell on Geneva. But now the ties are broken.
→ ANALYSIS. NATO warns Moscow vis-à-vis Ukraine
The Kremlin does not take the subject lightly. Russian threats vis-à-vis the two Scandinavian countries are barely muffled. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, promises “An adequate response from the Russian side”, if the neutrality of Finland and Sweden is called into question, with “Serious military and political consequences”.
Finland, a former Russian province until 1917, might hardly switch to NATO without joining forces with Sweden. But Stockholm is less prepared than Helsinki to start this movement. In 2020, the Finnish Parliament adopted a «Otan option» which allows accelerated membership of NATO. Since December, there has been a parliamentary majority in Sweden to follow the same path, despite the reluctance of the government which remains decision-making. The activation of such a measure would not necessarily be synonymous with imminent membership. To join NATO, Finland and Sweden will still have to receive the green light from each current member of the alliance.
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