In the Baroque decor of the Mariinsky Palace, the official residence of the Ukrainian President on the banks of the Dnieper, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to receive European leaders who have come to show him their solidarity. The latest, Tuesday, February 22, Estonian President Alar Karis. “We are with you, we will continue to support you in any way possible”said the former rector of the University of Tartu, alongside his Ukrainian counterpart.
→ READ. Ukraine crisis: the West in search of the right level of sanctions
A few hours earlier, in an address to the nation, Volodymyr Zelensky had called on Western countries to support “clear and effective”. “It is very important now, did he let go, to see who is our true friend and partner, and who will continue to “scare” the Russian Federation with words. »
“Proportionate” penalties
Western capitals condemn the “violation of international law” and adopt measures; but, at this stage, it is not about the sanctions ” massive promised in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. The Élysée evokes sanctions “proportionate”, “targeted in relation to President Putin’s announcements concerning the Donbass”. The Kremlin, by its decision to recognize the independence of the separatist republics, has nevertheless inflicted a snub on the French president. His attempt to find a way out of the crisis by organizing a summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, followed by a meeting extended to Europeans on the security of the continent, failed.
→ READ. Ukraine: by recognizing the Donbass, Putin challenges the West
Volodymyr Zelensky, elected in 2019 on a peace platform, has turned into an unlikely warlord. The former comedian had promised to sit down with Vladimir Putin and reach an agreement with Russia. He would put an end to an unpopular war in the Donbass. The plan didn’t work.
Vladimir Putin’s initiative puts an end to the Minsk agreements and the hope of a political settlement. And Moscow points to the “regime” in Kiev as the source of all evil. The speech of the Russian president, Monday February 21, was only a long charge (forty-five minutes) against the very existence of Ukraine, “entirely created by Bolshevik and communist Russia”.
International support assured but…
In public, international support for Ukraine seems assured. The Ukrainian president received a standing ovation last weekend at the Munich security conference. Washington, London and Vilnius delivered anti-tank missiles and other defensive weapons to Kiev. Americans and Europeans display their firmness on the right of any sovereign country to the free choice of its alliances and the rejection of the imperial model of spheres of influence. The European Parliament recently approved new financial support amounting to €1.2 billion.
“Western countries are beginning to realize the civilizational stakes in this conflict”believes Antoine Arjakovsky, co-director of the Department of Political Research and Religionsat the Collège des Bernardins.Behind the scenes, however, the United States and many of its allies would see Ukraine backtracking on its aspiration to NATO membership as a pragmatic solution to the current dangerous standoff with Vladimir Putin.
No good options
“Volodymyr Zelensky has no good options”, says Olga Rudenko, editor-in-chief of The Kyiv Independent. “Any concession to Russia, especially on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, would likely bring hundreds of thousands to the streets, threatening it with the fate of Viktor Yanukovych, the president overthrown by a revolution in 2014. And any decisive action against Russia risks giving the Kremlin a pretext for a murderous invasion. »
→ REPORT. In Mariupol, the anxiety of a city marked by war
In the event of a Russian military operation aimed at installing a pro-Russian government in Kiev, Ukraine could cease to exist as an independent entity, following the model applied in Belarus. Some analysts predict, in this hypothesis, a Ukrainian insurrection against Russian domination. On Tuesday, February 22, a senior Ukrainian diplomat called on Ukraine’s Western allies “the promise of his future membership” and of “provide him with more weapons”.
“To have any hope against Russian occupying forces, an insurgency should be supplied and supported by neighboring countries”points out, skeptical, Robert Kagan, researcher at the Brookings Institution and columnist at the Washington Post. “If Poland or the Baltics did it, Russia could come after them. It is wishful thinking to imagine that this conflict ends with Ukraine. »
→ READ. The invasion of Ukraine, a risky scenario for Putin
Whatever the scenario, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov expects “difficult ordeals”. “There will be losses, he said. We are going to have to go through pain, overcome fear and despair. But we will definitely win. We are on our land. »
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A few chronological markers
► 2014
March 16 to 17: With the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the EU responds with economic sanctions.
April 7: the separatists proclaim the Republic of Donetsk.
September 5: Representatives of Ukraine, Russia, Donetsk and Lugansk regions sign the Minsk Protocol to end the war.
December 23: The Ukrainian Parliament votes in favor of joining NATO.
► 2015
January 24: Separatist forces bombard Mariupol.
From February 5 to 25: “Minsk 2” provides for the recognition of a certain autonomy for Donetsk and Lugansk.
August 10: Clashes in the Mariupol region.
► 2019 :
May 20: Volodymyr Zelensky elected to the Ukrainian presidency, concludes a gas agreement with Moscow.
► 2020
June 12: NATO recognizes Ukraine as a partner.
► 2021 :
1is December 30: Moscow asks Washington for written guarantees on NATO’s non-extension to the east and mobilizes its soldiers in eastern Ukraine.
► 2022 :
February 21: Putin recognizes the independence of pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.