2024-02-16 22:19:00
Double blow for Volodymyr Zelensky. Traveling this Friday to Berlin then Paris, the Ukrainian president did not return empty-handed by signing bilateral security agreements which establish long-term aid from Germany and France to Ukraine, with a ten billion in military support promised for 2024. Including three billion euros in additional aid this year for France, according to Emmanuel Macron. On the German side, the signed document contains additional and immediate military aid amounting to 1.1 billion euros, which is a tranche of the seven billion in support already announced by Germany for 2024.
This support comes after that of the United Kingdom in January while aid of 60 billion euros is blocked in the United States. They also intervene at a time when the Ukrainian forces are in difficulty. In the east of the country, Avdiïvka is the epicenter of “ fierce fights » and now threatens to fall after months of Russian assaults.
Global support
In his text concluded for “ a duration of ten years » et « until Ukraine joins NATO » as France hopes, the latter plans “ global support » and in particular a strengthening of cooperation in the field of artillery. Olaf Scholz and Volodymyr Zelensky also signed a security agreement described as “ historical » by the German Chancellor who assured his determination to support Ukraine “ as long as necessary against the Russian aggressor ».
« Two years after the start of this terrible war, today we send a very clear message to the Russian president: we will not relax our support for Ukraine “, warned the German leader. As the war against Russia enters its third year, “a new phase is opening,” declared Emmanuel Macron alongside Volodymyr Zelensky.
The “Kremlin regime » a “crossed several thresholds ” in terms of disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks, he added, referring to a ” desire for aggression » against the « European democracies “. Moscow must also “without delay give explanations » on fears of deployment “nuclear weapons in space », indicated the French head of state.
Ce « hardening » is recalled “in the most tragic of ways » by the announcement of the death in prison of Alexeï Navalny, number one opponent of Vladimir Putin, which has overshadowed the Ukrainian leader’s European tour. This death which further exacerbates tensions with the West, “says the weakness of the Kremlin and the fear of any opponent », Estimated the French president. Earlier in Berlin, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Vladimir Putin should “ to be held accountable for his crimes ».
France and Germany also plan to support Ukraine after the war so that it can equip itself with a modern army capable of repelling possible future attacks from Russia. On the front, Russian troops are on the offensive, in large numbers, when the Ukrainian army lacks men, weapons and ammunition. And the possible return to power at the end of the year of Donald Trump, who threatened to no longer support certain Allies against Russia if they did not pay more within NATO, is also raising concerns.
During the last summit of the Atlantic Alliance in Vilnius in July 2023, the member countries of the organization, led by the United States and Germany, disappointed the expectations of Ukraine – and many Eastern European countries – by not setting a timetable for the country’s accession. The G7 powers had therefore decided to negotiate bilateral partnerships with kyiv. Twenty-five other states have joined this initiative, such as Poland. Concretely, these security agreements may concern the granting of military equipment, interoperable with that of NATO, the training of Ukrainian forces and the strengthening of Ukraine’s defense industry. Volodymyr Zelensky will continue his mini diplomatic tour on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), the annual meeting of the geopolitical elite in southern Germany, which runs until Sunday.
NATO is not a short-term option for Zelynsky
These bilateral agreements could signal that Ukraine, and several European countries, are increasingly worried about Donald Trump’s victory and his possible decision to withdraw from NATO », Estimates Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center, a specialized think tank in New York. Even assuming that it weathers storms, NATO is not a short-term option for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The integration of kyiv arouses as much unanimity among Ukrainian opinion as it raises debates within the ranks of the alliance, notes Ivan Klyszcz, of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), in Estonia.
Ukrainian efforts to enter the European Union must overcome the same cardinal obstacle as for NATO: the lack of unanimity of member countries. Rather than waiting for them to agree on a common project, Ukraine is trying to convince them one by one. This process of bilateral agreements with Ukraine was decided by the G7 in July 2023 and is taking shape today. But its effectiveness remains to be demonstrated, in the light of arms deliveries and concrete actions.
Until now carried by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom, military aid to Ukraine, which has gradually become more sophisticated since the Russian invasion in February 2022, is now weakening due to the difficulties Americans to release a new envelope. As of January 15, the European Union and NATO countries had already committed 107.5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, according to data published Friday by the German research institute Kiel Institute, which lists the weapons promised and delivered to Ukraine since the invasion.
The European Union and its members have promised 49.7 billion euros, the United States 42.2 billion. But European promises are spread over several years, while those of the United States have all already been delivered or allocated to specific weapons and equipment. The Twenty-Seven delivered or allocated only 35.2 billion euros in military aid, less than the United States.
By country, the United States is followed by Germany (17.7 billion, of which 9.4 billion already allocated), the United Kingdom (9.1 billion, of which 4.8) and Denmark (8.4 billion , including 4.5).
But the United States, the main supplier of military aid to Ukraine, has cut off the tap, the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden trying in vain for months to pass a new envelope, blocked by the reluctance of elected officials Republicans in the middle of the presidential campaign.
« It is highly uncertain whether the United States will send additional military aid in 2024 », Estimates the Kiel Institute. And experts fear that the hypothesis of a return to power by Republican Donald Trump in 2025 will spell the end of American aid to Ukraine.
“Europe will have to at least double its current military aid in the event that there is no additional aid from the United States “, warns Christoph Trebesch, who heads the Kiel Institute team responsible for monitoring commitments in favor of Ukraine.
To date, the European Union has “not not even spent 1% of its 2021 GDP to support Ukraine », he adds.
The EU releases 50 billion euros
But Europe is struggling to put together a united front. If European leaders agreed at the beginning of February on new financial aid of 50 billion euros over four years (33 billion in loans and 17 billion in donations), this envelope has long been blocked by the reluctance of the Prime Minister Hungarian Viktor Orban.
In Slovakia, the arrival in power of a new majority was accompanied by tensions, the new Prime Minister Robert Fico having blocked at the beginning of November, as promised during his campaign, a major delivery of arms planned by the previous executive. .
Poland has been one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters since the Russian invasion, but relations between the two countries have been undermined by tensions amid accusations of unfair competition in the agricultural sector in particular.
Pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk has nevertheless insisted on his support for Ukraine since his return to power in December.
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