6 hours ago|Source: ČT24, NBC, CNN
No hurricane has ever hit the Gulf of Mexico this late in the fall. This is due to the exceptionally warm water in the ocean, which gives the tropical storm exceptional strength. And destruction. American Florida is preparing for the arrival of Hurricane Milton not long after the rampage of the destructive storm Helene.
“It’s just an unbelievable, unbelievable, unbelievable hurricane. In ten hours, its pressure dropped by 50 millibars,” Hurricane Milton Florida meteorologist John Morales told NBC6. Then his voice broke and the scientist shook. “I’m sorry. It’s just horrible,” Morales said after taking a short break during the broadcast. A number of other experts also have a similar assessment of the storm, which will hit the US mainland with full force on Wednesday.
In recent weeks, forecasts from the spring, which expected an active hurricane season, are starting to come true. Not even by the total number of hurricanes and tropical storms yet, but rather by the occurrence of strong ones. By the time Hurricane Helene disappeared over the United States, Hurricane Isaac formed over the Atlantic, which luckily did not cause much damage, followed by the powerful Hurricane Kirk. As a post-tropical low, it is now heading towards Europe and will partly affect the weather in our country on Thursday. Far from populated areas over the mid-Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie formed and is already weakening.
However, Hurricane Milton experienced a significantly more dramatic development. A tropical storm formed over the record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on October 5th, which, thanks to favorable conditions, developed into a hurricane a day later. It underwent a literally explosive development in the following hours and on Monday afternoon it strengthened to the fifth, i.e. the strongest, level.
Hurricane Milton’s forecast path this week
The hurricane reached its maximum development shortly after midnight our time, when the pressure in the center of Milton dropped to 897 hPa, which is an extremely low value. For comparison, the lowest ever pressure value measured on our planet was 870 hPa in supertyphoon Tip in October 1979, and in the Czech Republic 967.2 hPa in Čáslav on February 26, 1989.
Since the night hours, the hurricane has weakened slightly, because it has undergone a cycle of collapse of the original wall of the eye of the hurricane (it is a massive cumulus cloud around the eye, which looks like a huge amphitheater) and the formation of a new wall of the eye. The air pressure thus temporarily increased to about 925 hPa and the wind speed decreased to about 250 kilometers per hour, but with gusts of over 300 kilometers per hour.
The weakening of the wind may not be an advantage
This weakening is, on the other hand, associated with a significant expansion of the strong wind field. And during the following hours, a slight strengthening can be expected again. However, before coming over land, due to less favorable conditions in the atmosphere, mainly due to greater wind shear (difference in wind direction and speed at different altitudes), a slight weakening of Milton should occur. Nevertheless, when it comes over the Florida mainland, it will be an extremely dangerous hurricane.
By Thursday morning ET, when it is expected to hit the west coast of the peninsula in the Tampa Bay region, it is likely to be a Category 3 hurricane with near-center winds below 120 miles per hour or above 150 miles per hour, with gusts up to 150 miles per hour. For comparison, the strongest gusts in the Czech Republic were hurricane Kyrill on Sněžka in January 2007, at 216 kilometers per hour, while in lowlands comparable to Florida, the strongest gusts were around 140 kilometers per hour. It’s good to remember that damage caused by wind increases quadratically with its speed, so double the speed means quadruple the damage.
At the same time, Milton’s wind field will increase significantly before arriving in Florida, about twice as much as it is now, when it reaches a speed of over 118 kilometers per hour within less than 50 kilometers from the center of the hurricane. Once it makes landfall, Milton will begin to weaken significantly, given the high speed of its advance, crossing the peninsula in about twelve hours, but it will remain a hurricane and then weaken to a tropical storm over the Atlantic. Tornadoes can also occur, which are often associated with hurricanes.
The threat is not only wind, but also water
In addition to the damaging winds, the coastal areas of West Florida will be inundated by the high seas. In the Tampa Bay region, swells could reach 3 to 4.5 meters. It will be the most in the area south of the center of the hurricane, with high waves accompanying the high seas. Of course, it also depends on the timing of the tides, respectively the ebb and flow of the sea.
Expected rainfall for Hurricane Milton (10 inches = 254 millimeters)
Another risk will be heavy rain, with 150 to 300 millimeters falling during the entire episode, locally up to around 450 millimeters. For comparison – 450 millimeters will fall in the driest regions of the Czech Republic for the whole year, on the other hand, during this year’s September floods, such totals were recorded in the Jeseníky region. The most rain should be in central and northern Florida, where there is the greatest risk of flash flooding and inundation of low-lying areas, especially in urban flat areas.
Hurricanes like Milton have been the most destructive
Milton has the potential to become one of the most destructive hurricanes in West-Central Florida history. In this context, we can recall that three of the most destructive ones recorded in the Atlantic were former hurricanes of the fourth or fifth degree, which weakened during the twelve hours before hitting the land – Milton is likely to expect a similar development scenario.
Expected maximum sea level rise associated with Hurricane Milton (10 feet means approximately 3 meters)
Meteorologically, Milton will go down in history as the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico so late in the year. Until now, the record with a similar wind speed was held by Rita, who achieved it about a fortnight earlier (September 22, 2005). Furthermore, the path of its progress is very unusual – it is the only Atlantic hurricane of the strongest category, which moves southeast to east.
Milton is also only the second Category 5 hurricane to form over the Gulf of Mexico since 1966, the first being Michael six years ago. And only three hurricanes have reached lower air pressure at their center than Milton: Wilma in 2005 (882 hPa), Gilbert in 1988 (888 hPa) and Rita also in 2005 (895 hPa). The speed of intensification was also extraordinary, surpassing expectations and forecasts – within twelve hours the air pressure dropped by 63 hPa, which was associated with an increase in wind speed of up to 110 kilometers per hour. The next hours to days of Milton’s life can be expected to rewrite yet more chapters in the meteorological history of hurricanes in this part of the world.
The connection to climate change is obvious
And based on a quick attribution analysis by Climate Central, one significant link to climate change can be pointed to. The occurrence of record high sea water temperatures in the part of the Gulf of Mexico above which Milton formed is 400 to 800 times more likely due to human activity. And it is this record-warm water that is the essential source of energy for hurricane development. This confirms the previously reported conclusions that climate change means more frequent occurrence of very strong tropical cyclones.
