Climate Change and Extreme Weather: The Impact of Storm Boris
Researchers from the World Weather Attribution initiative warn: Due to climate change, extreme weather events such as the storm “Boris” will occur twice as often in the future as they have done so far.
Never has a summer been warmer than in 2024, wrote the EU climate change service Copernicus at the beginning of September. Shortly thereafter, storm “Boris” caused torrential rain that persisted for several days.
The storm produced the heaviest rainfall ever recorded in Central Europe, resulting in severe flooding across Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Romania. At least 24 people lost their lives, and thousands were displaced from their homes.
Analysis of the Attribution Researchers: Climate Change is to Blame
For the last decade, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative has been studying the impact of climate change on extreme weather events, including storms, extreme rainfall, heat waves, and droughts. Recently, a team of 24 WWA scientists from several European countries and the USA focused on storm “Boris”.
Their findings reveal that human-induced climate change, which has already elevated global temperatures by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era, has doubled the likelihood of extreme weather occurrences and increased rainfall by about seven percent.
The researchers caution that their estimate of increased precipitation is conservative and may be higher. Storm “Boris” may no longer be classified as a “once-in-a-century event” that occurs only every 100 to 300 years. Polish climatologist Bogdan H. Chojnicki states:
The floods of 1997 and 2002 in Central Europe were also labeled once-in-a-century events, but with a global temperature increase from 0.5 to 1.3 degrees Celsius, we have seen them reoccur.
Cause Investigation: How Did This Heavy Rain Come About?
In an exceptionally warm summer, the Mediterranean region recorded historically high temperatures, leading to significant evaporation. Consequently, the air over the sea became warmer and capable of absorbing more moisture than usual.
A collision between the warm, moist air from Southern Europe and cold polar air moving over the Alps resulted in a Vb low, which ultimately caused the extreme rainfall affecting a vast area.
Without Protective Measures, Things Would Have Been Worse
Despite the unprecedented nature of the rainfall, the death toll was lower than during previous severe weather events. Currently, reports indicate that 24 individuals have died. In contrast, the 2002 floods brought about 232 fatalities across several countries, underscoring the effectiveness of precautionary measures.
WWA scientists attribute the reduced casualties to decades of investment in predictive forecasts and early warning systems. Improved emergency management across Europe allowed warnings to reach residents ahead of time, leading to proactive measures like reservoir management and enhanced flood defenses.
Adjust Development Plans to Save Lives
Maja Vahlberg, a member of the research group, emphasizes that these floods demonstrate the escalating costs of climate change. The EU has pledged ten billion euros for emergency repairs, which accentuates the need for preemptive planning. Countries must integrate climate considerations into land use to prepare for unprecedented flooding.
To enhance safety, urban development in flood-prone areas should be minimized, expansive floodplains should be established, and additional early warning systems should be created.
Even More Frequent Extreme Events Expected
The WWA researchers predict that a warming of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, expected by the 2050s, will result in even more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
They estimate that by this time, at least an additional five percent more rainfall will occur, and extreme rainfall may become fifty percent more common than it is today—again, a conservative prediction.
Limiting Climate Change
There is unequivocal evidence that anthropogenic climate change will lead to intensified rainfall in various global regions. The scientists involved in the WWA study call for urgent action to mitigate climate change.
Joyce Kimutai from Imperial College London advocates for a transition away from fossil fuels, stating that unless renewable energy replaces oil, gas, and coal, severe storms like “Boris” will bring more considerable and damaging rainfall.
Friederike Otto, also from Imperial College London, criticizes European politicians for rolling back climate commitments. She warns that climate change poses a severe threat, especially to marginalized communities and stresses the benefits of addressing it, including job creation, decreased energy costs, healthier urban environments, and reduced flood risks.
