Extreme onset of winter in the USA at Christmas

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Michael Salmi

| 7 days ago

As we enter the Christmas thaw, the US is heading for a record-breaking onset of winter!

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A significant reduction, including a partly stormy westerly wind and heavy rain, is in store for the Christmas holidays. The prognosis is different in the USA: There, a marked onset of winter is in the starting blocks, which will ensure icy conditions on the Christmas weekend of all days – even as far as the coast of the Gulf of Mexico!

Animation of the temperature at 850 hPa (regarding 1300 m) from Thursday to Saturday - ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET
Animation of the temperature at 850 hPa (regarding 1300 m altitude) from Thursday to Saturday – ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET

Snow is of course also in sight, although by American standards the amounts will usually be limited. By Christmas, however, the north-east of the United States in particular (apart from the Atlantic coast) will be wrapped in wintry white. Larger amounts of 30-60 cm are only found in exposed locations on the Great Lakes and regionally in Canada.

3-day new snow total in cm up to Christmas - ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET
3-day fresh snow total in cm up to Christmas – ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET

The cold is coming

The drop in temperature, on the other hand, is much more striking. Light to moderate freezes are in sight for the Christmas weekend even along the south coast of Texas to Florida. For comparison: New Orleans, in the state of Louisiana, lies on the Gulf of Mexico at regarding the same latitude as Cairo. Lows and highs between -20 and -30 degrees are common in the central and northern United States. A quite striking event for this extreme region of the world, but the records are still a bit away and are usually -30 to -50 degrees.

Animation of minimum temperatures from Thursday to Saturday - ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET
Animation of minimum temperatures from Thursday to Saturday – ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET

Icy wind

The cold snap will also be accompanied by a stormy north wind. The perceived temperature will therefore be significantly lower due to the icy wind. The so-called “wind chill index” is now the standard measure to determine such a perceived temperature in degrees Celsius. In the north of the USA, wind chill values ​​between -40 and -45 degrees are even in sight, but even from Texas to the Atlantic coast it will not be exactly comfortable at Christmas with values ​​well below 0 degrees.

Animation of Wind Chill Index from Thursday to Saturday - ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET
Animation of Wind Chill Index from Thursday to Saturday – ECMWF IFS model, UBIMET

Last but not least: The graphics below give a good estimate of the drop in temperature in selected major cities in the USA. Temperatures will drop between 20 and 30 degrees in just 24 hours. For Chicago and Denver, such values ​​are still a long way from winter records (Chicago -33 degrees, Denver -32 degrees), only New Orleans might set a new cold record on Christmas Day (previous absolute cold record is -6 degrees).

Chicago, Illinois 2m temperature forecast for the coming days and seasonal normals - ECMWF Ensemble, UBIMET
Chicago, Illinois 2m temperature forecast for the coming days and seasonal normals – ECMWF Ensemble, UBIMET
Forecast of the 2m temperature in New Orleans (Louisiana) in the coming days and normal values ​​for the season - ECMWF Ensemble, UBIMET
Forecast of 2m temperature in New Orleans, Louisiana in the coming days and normal values ​​for the season – ECMWF Ensemble, UBIMET
Denver, Colorado 2m temperature forecast for the coming days and seasonal normals - ECMWF Ensemble, UBIMET
Denver, Colorado 2m temperature forecast for the coming days and seasonal normals – ECMWF Ensemble, UBIMET

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