Extreme natural events caused by climate change will change the way our food is grown Business

Last year was declared extreme due to the heat, the number of natural phenomena and uneven rainfall. This year we again observed an unusually warm and changeable April.

One of the areas most dependent on natural resources and weather conditions (at the same time – on climate change) is agriculture. What climate changes and related effects are observed in Lithuania and what impact does it have on agriculture? The increasing average temperature, the softening of the cold period of the year, the lengthening of the growing season – it seems that these are factors that can positively affect agriculture in Lithuania.

Watermelons, grapes, new grain crops are already grown in Lithuania. As the growing season gets longer, it becomes possible to have two crops per season or grow a larger crop. On the other hand, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, the risk of frost remains high, water resources and soil quality are changing.

So, are the effects of climate change really only positive and will it be easy to take advantage of new opportunities? What real consequences and related risks can the changing climate bring to Lithuanian farms? What is the impact of agriculture itself on the climate and how can this impact be reduced?

Watermelons, grapes, new grain crops are already grown in Lithuania.

In Lithuania, the average annual temperature has increased in Lithuania compared to the 20th century. the beginning, the average annual temperature rose by 0.7-0.9 °C and there was a strong increase in summer warm days. In the cold period of the year, the number of days with negative temperatures decreases. An increasing amount of liquid precipitation in the cold period, a decrease in snow cover, and frequent spring droughts are also observed. All these indicators show that Lithuania is not ahead of global trends – the climate is changing in our country as well.

In the general context of Europe, Lithuania falls at the intersection of two biogeographical regions: continental and northern. It has been observed that these regions are shifting towards the North as the climate changes. This means that the conditions of the northern region are becoming less and less typical of Lithuania and the climatic conditions typical of the continental region are arriving. This change is likely to accelerate in the coming decades. Thus, we have an interesting and unique situation where some climate phenomena remain stable and some change.

Although these changes seem slow and insignificant, related phenomena are already noticeable: more frequent extreme weather conditions, earlier flowering of plants, longer growing season of plants, spread of new plants, animals, insects, soil erosion. Agriculture is an area that is very strongly affected by these changes and, undoubtedly, farms will have to adapt.

The solution – new plant cultures?

Recently, we have been hearing more and more stories that watermelons are grown in Lithuania, grape varieties brought from southern countries, and new cereal varieties are grown. However, practice shows that integrating new plant cultures is not so easy. For example, watermelon growers in Lithuania complain that bees “can’t see” watermelon and melon blossoms, so the growers had to pollinate the plants manually.

“Scientists have noticed that native pollinator species prefer the flowers of native plants, so exotic flowers such as watermelons, which are not native to our environment, are simply passed over. This behavior can be explained by coevolution – both insects and plants evolved simultaneously, interacting with each other over a long period of time. Thus, pollinators are adapted to pollinate local plants, just as local plants are adapted to be pollinated by local pollinators,” says Eglė Vičiuvienė, environmental protection specialist of the non-governmental organization Baltic Environment Forum.

Plants have adapted to our climate, environment, diseases, insects over the centuries. In addition, even if the average annual air temperature is increasing in our country, the climate in our country does not become like that of southern countries and it is very changeable. Nature will change, so will agriculture.

However, this adaptation is not quick and raises many questions and challenges. “What effect will new plant species have on the natural environment, on other cultivated plants?” What diseases and insects will come with them? Will you be able to defend yourself from the common diseases in our region? New things need to be tried carefully, after carefully assessing the possible consequences,” says farmer Valentinas Genys.

Frosts can seriously damage the quality of the harvest

Although the average annual air temperature in Lithuania is increasing, the situation will not be the same as in the southern countries. “Yes, over time our climate becomes similar to some parts of Hungary or Ukraine, but there are other factors in our region that are important. Although Lithuania is not a completely northern country, we are relatively close to Northern latitudes. Therefore, we will continue to have early spring frosts still possible and late fall frosts still possible.

Especially spring frosts are dangerous, because they can strongly affect the development of plants and thus affect the quality of the harvest,” says climatologist Assoc. Dr. Justas Kazys. For example, in 2023, a record-breaking and long natural frost during the flowering period of plants caused a lot of damage to agriculture. The mutual insurance fund also shows that frost is becoming a big problem

Nature will change, so will agriculture.

experience: “Recent years have been characterized by large temperature fluctuations at the end of April, increasing the risk of frost.” This is a very important thing in our region. Because of the cold, everything can be quickly and severely damaged.” – says Martynas Rusteika, head of the Lithuanian branch of the farmers’ mutual insurance fund “Vereinigte Hagel”.

Only insurance protects against extreme events?

Due to climate change, extreme events are happening more and more frequently in Lithuania. Moreover, these phenomena are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. “Frequent weather extremes are probably one of the most important features of climate change affecting agriculture. Dry periods and heat waves alternated with summer storms, which travel with all the accompanying phenomena – thunder, hail, squalls, heavy rains. Such phenomena are becoming stronger, more frequent and increasingly difficult to predict.

At the same time, they cause a lot of losses,” says climatologist Assoc. Dr. Justas Kazys. Since Lithuania falls at the intersection between the northern and continental regions, more frequent extreme events from both regions are recorded here. The northern region of Europe is characterized by more frequent heavy rains and an increased risk of winter storms, while the continental region is characterized by increasing heat extremes.

The Ministry of Environment and the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service (LHMT) announce that in 2023 In Lithuania, there were extremes due to fixed all types of drought (in forests, agrometeorological and hydrological), floods and rainfall unevenness: deficit in the first half of the year, excess rainfall in the second half of the year. As a result of extreme hydrometeorological events, the European continent suffered about 13.4 billion euros last year. EUR losses, even 81 percent. their related to floods.

Extreme natural phenomena can destroy crops, damage crops, and damage the structure of the earth. In Lithuania, there are more and more cases when rains and wind destroy crops in a short period of time.

For example, it is estimated that in 2017 heavy rains in summer and autumn in Lithuania damaged almost a third of the cereal areas. in 2020 were extremely difficult for farmers – a layer of heavy wet snow fell in the spring, and a strong storm destroyed everything in the summer, in some places even half of the crops were planted. in 2021 on St. John’s Day, a storm with hail broke through, which damaged large areas of vegetables, laid down winter and summer crops, rapeseed. Last year there were also storms, an emergency situation was declared in Joniškis district.

Extreme natural phenomena can destroy crops, damage crops, and damage the structure of the earth.

There is no way to avoid extreme events and protect yourself from adverse effects. And stronger events can completely destroy the harvest and even lead to the bankruptcy of the farm.

Therefore, probably the only way to reduce losses is crop insurance. Martynas Rusteika, head of the Lithuanian branch of the Vereinigte Hagel agricultural mutual insurance fund, says: “The last five years have been characterized by the fact that it is difficult to predict which risks will be the most relevant, so farmers seek to insure themselves against all risks. We have also recently seen an increase in insurance volumes – the insured areas have increased 2.5 times in the last four years.” Insurance companies offer insurance against various extreme natural phenomena caused by climate change – hail, storm and rain, natural drought, frost and long-term rain.

Due to the damage caused by extreme hydrometeorological phenomena, farmers are saved not only by mutual insurance funds, but also by the state. Farmers can apply to the municipality where their farm is located and provide the necessary information together with supporting documents to seek state support for the damage suffered due to various natural meteorological phenomena that caused the death of plants.

“However, insurance alone is not enough, it is necessary to look systematically – appropriate policies must be implemented at the European and national level, the principles of sustainability must be pursued, and farmers must be interested in taking care of their resources. We all have to look through the concept of a sustainable environment and unite our efforts together,” adds M. Rusteika.

How to get out of the vicious circle? The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say that if climate change is not stopped, its effects will be catastrophic. in 2022 according to data, the transport (30%) and energy (29%) sectors emitted the most greenhouse gases (GHG) in Lithuania. In third place is agriculture (21%). Global trends are similar.

Thus, agriculture has a really significant impact on climate change and therefore has an extremely high potential to reduce this impact. In order to overcome the challenges posed by climate change, it is necessary not only to adapt, but also to take action to mitigate the impact of agriculture on climate change.

“Although it is important to invest in technologies that enable the efficient implementation of sustainable solutions and the use of low-GHG methods, it is not enough. A compromise must be sought. It is important to expand the diversity of farms and increase the number of organic farms. Use soil-friendly solutions. Biodiversity and its preservation is an equally important aspect,” says climatologist Assoc. Dr. Justas Kazys

There are already a number of good examples in Lithuania where farmers apply sustainable farming practices in order to contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. For example, they practice no-till farming, crop rotation, grow intermediate crops, and aim to increase the area of ​​perennial meadows.

It is also no news to farmers that it is important to apply innovative technologies for manure management, to use less mineral fertilizers and account for them, to use more organic fertilizers, to change the composition of animal feed in order to reduce the release of methane and nitrous oxide. It is no less important to reduce the use of pesticides and herbicides, to seek to use scientifically based safe alternative methods to protect crops from pests and diseases. Food products

shortening the supply chain and getting closer to consumers can help create more added value and reduce the negative impact of transportation.

Valentinas Genys, an agronomist with practical and scientific experience in agriculture and a member of the Lithuanian Association of Organic Farms, says: “We cannot continue to behave as we have until now and expect a different result. Our thinking must change, otherwise we are cutting the branch we are sitting on. By indiscriminately fertilizing the soil with synthetic fertilizers and plowing it, we are killing its life and such soil will soon turn into a sandy desert.

Instead, we need to minimize the use of synthetic nitrogen and take measures to restore the biodiversity of the soil, with all the life that belongs to it – microorganisms, fungi. Only then will we get a return from nature and be able to farm successfully.”

This article is the first of the three-part article series “Climate change impact on Lithuanian agriculture”.