If the numbers hold up, Meloni, as leader of the party with the most votes, will lead the future government – the 68th in the history of the republic – as Italy’s first female prime minister. “We can govern with these numbers,” said FdI MP Fabio Rampelli, welcoming the exit polls. The alliance of FdI, the right-wing conservative Forza Italia led by ex-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and the right-wing populist Lega led by Matteo Salvini was the clear favorite in the vote.
However, Meloni’s alliance partners slipped significantly in the voters’ favour: According to the projections, Salvini’s Lega has to be content with around 8.5 percent. In 2018 it was still around 17 percent. There is also a whopping minus of around eight percent for Forza Italia (2018: around 14 percent). Despite his own party’s weak result, Salvini nonetheless welcomed the clear lead of the centre-right coalition and tweeted “We’re ahead, thanks!”.
Letta’s PD dropped below 20 percent
The left and center parties did not take a united front once morest the right in the election campaign. The Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, PD), led by Meloni’s direct challenger Enrico Letta, achieved around 19 percent according to the extrapolation. In this case, the electoral alliance of Letta’s Social Democrats with left-wing parties and the Greens came to 25.5 to 29.5 percent, according to exit polls.
The Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement, M5S) party, led by ex-Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, received 16.5 percent of the vote. The Five Star Movement, which ruled Italy for four years and was the single party with the most votes in the last election, was pleased with its surprising third place despite heavy losses. “We were declared dead, but we are the third strongest party in the country,” commented Michele Gubitosa, vice-president of the Five Stars. The populist party founded by comedian Beppe Grille has won votes, especially in the poorer south of the country, with the promise to continue funding a minimum income scheme introduced in 2019.
The center alliance of the parties Azione (action) and Italia Viva (Italy lives) of ex-minister Carlo Calenda and ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi achieved 6.5 to 8.5 percent according to exit polls.
“Writing History”
The FdI were the only significant opposition to the multi-party government led by Prime Minister Mario Draghi and overthrown in June. In the last parliamentary election in 2018, they came to just around four percent. The party represents nationalist, EU-critical and sometimes racist positions and has its roots directly in the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement (Movimento Sociale Italiano, MSI), which was founded following the death of Benito Mussolini. In the logo of the party, which was founded in 2012, there is also a flame that commemorates the fascist dictator who took power in Italy exactly 100 years ago with his March on Rome.
The emerging winner of the election, Meloni, did not turn up in the morning as initially planned, but only came to vote towards the end of the election. “Today you can help make history. Today we’re making history together,” the 45-year-old tweeted earlier, posting a photo of her holding the Italian flag. Some of the top candidates had already cast their votes early in the morning, including Salvini in Milan, Letta in Rome and Renzi in Florence. A little later, accompanied by great media hype, Berlusconi followed in Milan.
There have been three governments in Italy since the general elections in March 2018. According to plan, a new parliament should not be elected until the beginning of 2023. Former ECB chief Draghi was appointed to head the government in early 2021. The Five Star Movement voted no confidence in Draghi on a proposed law in July, following which he resigned. However, Draghi will remain in office until a new government is sworn in – which can take several weeks.
Historically low voter turnout
More than 51 million Italians were called to the autumn’s first parliamentary election in post-war Italy. The option to vote by post was only available to the almost 4.9 million Italians abroad. According to the Interior Ministry, voter turnout was only around 64 percent. This significantly undercut the previous lowest voter turnout from 2018 (73.76 percent).
Despite the historically low turnout, queues formed outside some polling stations on Sunday, prompting some outrage. This was also due to the fact that one strip had to be carefully torn off from the two completed ballot papers – one each for the House of Representatives and one for the Senate – before they went into the ballot box. This additional procedure to combat voter fraud delayed the process.
Slimmed Parliament
For the first time, a constitutional reform approved by referendum in 2020 will be implemented with the early parliamentary elections – specifically, the new parliament now has significantly fewer seats: Only 400 instead of 630 seats were available for the Chamber of Deputies and 200 instead of 315 seats in the Senate. The voting system was known as “Rosatellum” and was much discussed in the run-up to the election. It is a complex mixed system, with regarding a third of the seats being allocated by first-past-the-post system and the remainder by proportional representation.
Congratulations from AfD, Le Pens RN and Vox
Congratulations for Meloni came from the German right-wing party AfD, from Rassemblement National (RN) from France and the Polish PiS. “We’re celebrating with Italy!” Wrote AfD member of parliament Beatrix von Storch on Twitter. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on Twitter “Congratulations @Giogia Meloni”. French MEP Jordan Bardella from Marine Le Pens RN wrote on Twitter that the Italians had given European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “a lesson in humility”.
The Spanish Vox, which had supported Meloni in the election campaign, also welcomed the election result. Congratulations for right-wing populist Meloni also came from Balazs Orban, political adviser to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. “We congratulate Giorgia Meloni, Matteo Salvini, Silvio Berlusconi on today’s elections! In these difficult times, more than ever, we need friends who share a common vision and approach to Europe’s challenges.”
