2023-12-20 19:54:00
The trade balance suffered, in November, a contraction of US$615 million powered by a collapse in the level of exportswhich fell and 31.6% on a year-on-year basis. In this way, it was reached tenth month with red numbers.
During the eleventh month of the year, and as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC)the Argentine commercial exchange was US$10,359 million dollarsrepresenting 53% imports and 47% exports.
However, the negative trade balance It is explained not only by a drop in imports, by 4.8% year-on-yearpositioning itself at US$5,487 million, but, above all, in a deep drop in exports, of US$4,872 millionthe lowest point in the last 12 months.
As detailed in the document, this, which took place in the last month of Alberto Fernández’s government, and in the run-up to the inauguration of Javier Milei, occurred mainly as a result of of a deep decline in sales to main trading partnerswith emphasis, above all, on those who are part of the BRICSthe group that had accepted Argentina’s request to enter but that, following the change of government, was removed by Diana Mondino and the team Freedom Advances.
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With respect to China, exports fell by 63.5%. Same situation took place with India and Brazil, although at levels of 46.3% and 22.4%, respectively. According to the European Union, for its part, the decrease was 55.9%. The United States, for its part, was not the exception either, with a drop of 7.1%.
According to INDEC, So far in 2023 the trade deficit is US$8,000 millionconsidering the US$61,464 million of exports, 25.3% lower than the sum of the first eleven months of 2022, and the US$69,464 of imports, also in the red compared to last year, although in 9.2%.
What will happen to the trade balance in 2024?
With the end of the drought and the arrival of El Niño, among other factors, the Milei government there would be a tailwind in 2024 with a trade balance which would reach a positive balance of US$ 25,000 millionaccording to a report from the Mediterranean Foundation.
This way, The current account surplus would reach US$9 billion, while the Central Bank’s reserves would have an increase around US$ 12,000 millionbecause part of the dollars that will enter the country will be allocated to different sectors that will demand foreign currency.
They assure that the salary should increase more than 100% due to Milei’s measures: “If not, 2001 is going to be a pain”
It should be noted that the positive trade balance would not only be due to the agro-export sector, following the drought, but also to a greater boost to the energy and tourism sectors.
Meanwhile, the balance of the energy balance would go from a deficit of US$4.7 billion to a surplus of US$3.3 billionwhich would imply an improvement of US$ 8,000 million compared to 2023.
“This would decompress the great lack of dollars. However, the payment of interest must be considered,” he said, in dialogue with Channel Ethe specialist in strategic economic development, Marcelo Elizondo.
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