2023-10-22 18:57:00
In a science fiction novel called “Ministry for the Future,” Kim Stanley Robinson sketches the possibility that a government overwhelmed by global warming would make a disproportionate decision: inflate the ozone layer with aerosols. In order to face a climatic catastrophe, the Indian government then begins to try to cool the planet by dumping tons of aerosols into the stratosphere day following day.
Thus, chemical particles gradually spread throughout the earth, reflecting sunlight back into space and acting as a planetary umbrella. The bet is successful, the planet is cooling.
This method, belonging to the field of solar geoengineering, really exists and goes once morest international law. More than 440 scientists signed an open letter in January to call for an agreement not to use this geoengineering. In question ? These methods might have unpredictable effects and risk distracting attention from reducing CO2 emissions, as the BBC points out.
But would it be possible to implement this method, install this “planetary parasol” using aerosols? According to many scientists, the approach deserves to be supported and considered as an emergency measure. But the overwhelming majority of the scientific community fears this eventuality and the terrible consequences that might result. “The more I read regarding this topic, the more I am convinced that this technology has extraordinary potential for harm and destruction, and I don’t think I would ever support or recommend it personally,” said Andreas Malm, associate professor of human ecology at Lund University in Sweden, on the BBC.
This method would temporarily cool the planet, providing a small window of time to think regarding a solution to counter CO2 emissions and other challenges posed by global warming. But its side effects might in the long term make it worse rather than better. A 2022 UN report pointed to gaps in modeling the impact of solar geoengineering. According to this report, this method would not prevent rising CO2 concentrations from acidifying the oceans.
According to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the book “Under A White Sky: The Nature of the Future,” humanity continually faces unforeseen disasters as it attempts to control nature. “There may be a point where the benefits of solar geoengineering are necessary, but history suggests that it would be naive to hope that formidable consequences will not result,” she believes.
An additional difficulty in implementing this method would be international consensus. How to legislate such an approach? Inequalities would also be an obstacle to the implementation of solar geoengineering, particularly in countries in the South where access to this technology would be more complicated. There would also be a risk of uneven distribution of impacts, not knowing who will be hit hardest by the consequences of solar geoengineering.
For the scientific community, the conclusion is unanimous: it is an option, but let’s not consider it.
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