Around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers in just over 20 tanks and armored personnel carriers crossed the border into Russia in the morning hours of 6 August and made their way around 10 kilometers into the Kursk region.
The invasion force was supported by heavy artillery fire and a swarm of drones. Thousands of civilians have fled the area, where fighting has since continued.
Russia confirms that fighting is ongoing and has sent military reinforcements to the area, while there have been few comments from the Ukrainian side.
The American think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which is partly funded by the US arms industry, claims to have geolocated images showing Ukrainian forces 35 kilometers inside Russia.
Surprising
The Ukrainians’ decision to send forces into the territory of the world’s largest nuclear power apparently came as a surprise to both the leadership in the Kremlin and Ukraine’s Western allies.
– We will contact the Ukrainian military to find out more about their intentions, it read first comment from the White House.
However, both the US and the EU quickly emphasized that Ukraine has their full support.
Asks questions
However, military experts question what Ukraine can achieve by sending ground forces into Russian territory.
– This is probably an operation that has both a military and a political purpose, says former chief of defense Sverre Diesen. He is now chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI).
– Militarily, it could be an attempt to reverse the development in Donbas and force the Russians to transfer forces from there to the Kursk region, he tells NTB.
But Ukraine has not yet succeeded in that.
Weird device
– Not yet as far as I have been able to register, but it is a bit early to determine before you see whether this will ease the pressure on other front sections, he says.
The Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region are not large in a military context either, Diesen states.
– It is claimed to be elements of four brigades. If so, it’s a very complex and somewhat odd device. But here there is probably a lot of uncertainty that you shouldn’t put too much emphasis on, he says.
Will be demanding
By sending such a force into Russia, Ukraine also risks being weakened on other front sections.
– One can ask how rational this operation is. From a purely military point of view, the Ukrainians cannot count on conquering significant parts of the Kursk region. It is therefore in the nature of the matter that it is time-limited, says Diesen.
– At one point or another they will have to end it, and the question then is how it can be done without it appearing as a defeat. It can be demanding, he says.
Turning point?
Former professor of military strategy at the Stockholm Defense University, Joakim Paasikivi, believes that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region could be a turning point in the war.
– This is a completely new dynamic. It may well turn out to be a new front, he adds news agency TT.
The attack is reminiscent of Ukraine’s offensive when they recaptured the Kharkiv area in autumn 2022, he believes.
– What they have succeeded in is to surprise and create new movement in the war by advancing and taking rather large areas. At the same time, important Russian supply lines and railway lines are cut off, says Paasikivi.
It will create difficulties for the Russian forces’ offensive in the Kharkiv region, he believes.
Insignificant
Diesen cannot see that the areas the Ukrainian forces have occupied in the Kursk region are of greater strategic importance.
– One can speculate whether the Ukrainians have an ambition to hold on to this rather insignificant area in order to use it as a bargaining chip to get back a similar area that the Russians hold. But I have no particular faith in that, he says.
The Ukrainian forces are also very vulnerable to attacks from the air if they try to hold onto this area, Diesen believes.
– So I mostly believe that this attack primarily has a political and psychological purpose, he says.
Embarrassing for Putin
– It is a very embarrassing matter for President Vladimir Putin. It puts him in a difficult situation, and it obviously also has a positive psychological effect on the Ukrainian population that this way brings the war to the Russians, says Diesen.
Putin has described the attack as “a major provocation” and warns against an escalation of the war.
– It is conceivable that the Russian reaction could damage the willingness of certain Western governments to support Ukraine. That cannot be ignored, says Diesen.
But the Russian arguments about the danger of escalation have a fundamental flaw, he believes.
– Where would the Russians get forces to escalate the conflict from? It is an empty threat in my opinion, says Diesen.
Western tanks?
If the Ukrainian invasion force in the Kursk region has used weapons and military equipment they have received from the West, including Leopard tanks from Norway, he believes that this is unproblematic.
– Both Germany and other EU countries have said that this is happening in accordance with international law, that should also be Norway’s position, says Diesen.
Incidentally, one of history’s largest armored battles took place in the Kursk region in 1943 when Nazi Germany moved into the area with over 2,500 tanks and nearly 800,000 soldiers.
The Red Army won, and the Battle of Kursk marked the beginning of the end for Adolf Hitler’s dream of defeating the Soviet Union.
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2024-08-11 16:12:58
