The economy is returning to a long-term growth trajectory as the post-COVID-19 boom is over. Recent stock market movements have shown that the VN-Index’s downtrend is coming to an end. VinaCapital expects Vietnam’s economy and stock market to return to its true potential this year.
In the recently published analysis “Towards 2023”, Mr. Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist According to VinaCapital, Vietnam’s GDP growth is likely to decelerate from 8% in 2022 to 6% in 2023, partly because the slowing global economy will affect Vietnam’s manufacturing and export sectors. Male.
However, China’s reopening will likely boost Vietnam’s GDP growth by 2% through growth in foreign tourism. At the same time, growth is also supported by the Government’s promotion of public investment when aiming to increase spending on infrastructure from regarding 4% of GDP in 2022 to 7% of GDP (equivalent to regarding US$30 billion). ) in 2023.
In the long term, VinaCapital believes that FDI inflows will continue to flow into Vietnam; urbanization and demographics will help drive the continued growth of Vietnam’s emerging middle class and domestic consumption… will be the key drivers of economic growth.
[Kinh tế Việt Nam 2023: Biến nguy thành cơ, tranh thủ vận hội mới]
Besides, VinaCapital Vietnam’s macroeconomic is expected to remain stable this year. The value of VND has depreciated by 3% in 2022, while currencies in emerging markets have depreciated by 7%. In 2023, VinaCapital believes that the value of VND will increase by 2-3%.
In terms of inflation, Vietnam’s CPI averages 3% in 2022, much lower than in the world’s frontier/emerging markets. VinaCapital forecasts that this index of Vietnam will increase to 4% in 2023, largely due to the reopening of China which is likely to put pressure on food and energy prices in Vietnam.
For stock marketAccording to Mr. Michael Kokalari, the declining phase of the VN-Index is ending and the market has a consensus on the expectation that the VN-Index will increase by more than 20% with the recovery mainly due to the improvement in both markets. Domestic and international factors have put pressure on the market last year.
In particular, global inflationary pressures are now easing. This means that the aggressive rate hikes by central banks that crippled developed and emerging equity markets last year may soon be over.
Domestically, the Government will take steps to ease liquidity issues currently affecting the Vietnamese corporate bond market. This will lead to the resumption of the ability to refinance the maturing debts of Vietnamese companies.
“The return of confidence to the Vietnamese stock market will be a lengthy process, but the market’s attractive valuations and solid earnings growth prospects perhaps explain why foreign investors are buying Vietnamese stocks were worth $1.1 billion in the last two months of 2022. They are also net buyers in the Vietnamese market for the whole of 2022, the first time since 2019,” the expert assessed. .
With the investment theme in 2023, VinaCapital highly appreciates domestic consumption, infrastructure and FDI investment. At the same time, adding low interest rate beneficiaries and consolidation are two new themes for this year.
H.Chung
