2024-11-17 07:13:00
A week before the Styrian state elections, pollsters and experts are expecting a clear election victory for the FPÖ on November 24th. Apart from that, the picture is a bit unclear. What this all means for the federal coalition.
Experts agree that the FPÖ will be able to continue its current high in Styria. The – very few – recent surveys show the Freedom Party at between 30 (Hajek) and 33 percent (Lazarsfeld). “In view of the situation in the federal government and also what was shown in the National Council election, it would be surprising if the FPÖ were intercepted” and not Erste, said political consultant Thomas Hofer to the APA – with reference to the Styria result the FPÖ in the National Council election on September 29th. At that time, the Freedom Party in the Green Mark achieved a result of 32.19 percent with an increase of 13.73 percentage points.
Pollster Peter Hajek pointed to the two surveys he conducted (in May and October): in May the FPÖ got 29 percent and in October 30 percent. This means that the Blues were very stable in these two surveys, while the other parties “did a lot”: While the ÖVP was at 22 percent in May, it reached 26 percent in October. The SPÖ was at 21 percent in May and 24 percent in the most recent Hajek survey.
“We see a lot of movement,” says the demoscope. In addition, according to the data, there are around 20 percent of undecided voters in the market. For comparison: In the National Council election this was only ten percent in Hajek’s surveys. “We have a very uncertain data situation. This results from the fact that there are few measuring points, few surveys that you can use as a guide – both your own and those of your colleagues. That makes the picture so soft,” emphasized the expert. “We don’t have enough measurement data overall, so you have to be careful,” said Hofer.
What is not certain for the experts is that after the vote next Sunday there will be a majority between black and red. For Hajek this is “relatively uncertain”, Hofer and Bachmayer see this as a crucial question. The electoral law in Styria suits the larger parties, emphasized Hofer, as basic mandates there are “cheaper” than in the federal government. Nevertheless, we have to wait and see.
If a situation arises in which the ÖVP and SPÖ also need a third partner in Styria (as in the federal government), “then that would be even better,” said Hofer. What will also be crucial is how far the FPÖ is ahead of the others in the event of first place.
The experts do not see a state governor bonus for ÖVP boss Christopher Drexler – unlike what was the case with Vorarlberg’s state governor Markus Wallner (ÖVP) in the Vorarlberg election on October 13th. In addition, the ÖVP’s drop rate is quite high: in 2019 it reached 36.05 percent. Therefore, a relatively large loss can be expected for the ÖVP, said Hofer. Surveys see the ÖVP at between 26 and 27 percent in the most recent surveys.
The current situation in the federal government with the FPÖ not being tasked with forming a government would also benefit the Freedom Party in Styria, said Hofer. Drexler had already “wisely” called for the FPÖ to be entrusted with the task of forming a government, because the latter knew that the current situation “continues to be grist for the FPÖ’s mill.”
SPÖ lead candidate Anton Lang tried to distance himself from the federal SPÖ, but that was “difficult,” said Hofer. The crucial question for the Social Democrats will be how they will fare in relation to the ÖVP after the election. Surveys put the Reds at between 22 and 24 percent, which would be roughly the result from 2019 (23.02). The “monkey on the wall” is the National Council election results in the country (18.59 percent). “But we assume that the result won’t be that bad,” said Hajek.
The pollster said that the KPÖ, which is traditionally strong in Styria, especially in Graz, will also play a role in the SPÖ’s performance. The return of the KPÖ and NEOS, which are each at six percent in the polls, seems quite certain: “In the constituency of Graz and the surrounding area they have to make a basic mandate, but five to six percent can be assumed,” said Hajek. The polls are predicting significant losses for the Greens compared to their record result from 2019 (12.08).
In any case, the FPÖ’s expected victory will have “repercussions on the federal government,” said Hofer, “nervousness is increasing,” and the uncertainty among the SPÖ and ÖVP will be “increased once again.” But he doesn’t think anything will change regarding the coalition negotiations.
OGM boss Bachmayer sees it somewhat differently: If the coalition negotiators in the federal government do not announce at least a fundamental breakthrough before the election in Styria, it will become increasingly difficult with the expected victory of the FPÖ and the probably poor performance of the ÖVP and SPÖ.
“The message should be: We’ve basically made it, but at Christmas or right after Christmas we’ll have a new government. That might have stopped the head-rolling process that I foresee based on the Styrian election results,” Bachmayer also has a wobble of the federal party leaders of the ÖVP and SPÖ is possible if the negotiations drag on and the state election results turn out as expected. This applies even more if, after the election in Styria – as in the federal government – a two-party coalition is only possible with the FPÖ and the ÖVP and SPÖ need a third partner together.
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How might the increased indecision among voters affect the coalition dynamics after the elections?
**Interview with Political Expert Thomas Hofer on the Upcoming Styrian State Elections**
**Editor:** Good morning, Thomas. Thank you for joining us today just one week before the Styrian state elections. Polls are indicating a strong performance from the Freedom Party (FPÖ) on November 24th. What are the latest predictions?
**Thomas Hofer:** Good morning! Yes, it appears that the FPÖ is in a strong position, with recent survey results showing their support fluctuating between 30% and 33%. Given their prior success in the National Council elections, it would indeed be surprising if they were to lose ground in Styria.
**Editor:** So, we see the FPÖ stable in its polling. What about the other parties? How are they faring?
**Thomas Hofer:** The ÖVP has shown some improvement, rising from 22% in May to around 26% in October, while the SPÖ has also gained, moving from 21% to 24%. However, there’s a considerable amount of indecision among voters—approximately 20% remain undecided. This uncertainty complicates the overall picture since we don’t have many reliable data points.
**Editor:** You mentioned the uncertainty impacting the results. What does this mean for potential coalitions post-election?
**Thomas Hofer:** That’s the critical question. If neither the ÖVP nor the SPÖ can achieve a clear majority on their own, they may need to seek a third partner, similar to the current federal government. The electoral laws favor larger parties, so it’s essential to see how significant the FPÖ’s lead will be after the votes are counted.
**Editor:** Do you think ÖVP leader Christopher Drexler will benefit from being the sitting governor in this election?
**Thomas Hofer:** I do not expect a state governor bonus for Drexler, especially considering the ÖVP’s decline since 2019. Their support has dropped significantly, and they are currently projected to secure between 26% and 27%.
**Editor:** And what implications does the federal political climate have on the upcoming elections?
**Thomas Hofer:** The current situation plays into the hands of the FPÖ in Styria. The government dynamics are such that the FPÖ’s non-involvement in federal governance makes them appear untainted and appealing to voters. Drexler’s call for the FPÖ to form the government in Styria indicates his awareness of this advantage.
**Editor:** how is the SPÖ’s campaigning going? Are they maintaining momentum separate from the national party’s challenges?
**Thomas Hofer:** SPÖ candidate Anton Lang is attempting to distance himself from the national SPÖ, but that’s a tough sell. The party needs to perform better than the national results, as they’re currently projected to achieve around 22% to 24%. The outcome will determine their path forward in Styria.
**Editor:** Thank you, Thomas, for your insights on the upcoming elections. It certainly seems like a pivotal moment for Styrian politics in particular and for the national landscape overall.
**Thomas Hofer:** Thank you for having me. It will definitely be interesting to see how it all unfolds!
