After an early invasion marked by miscalculations, Russian military strategy in Ukraine is increasingly difficult to understand for experts in the armed forces.
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“At the tactical level, the Russians are making an operational advance which is going well, analyzes Simon Leduc, a former military intelligence officer. At the strategic level, what will it lead to? I don’t understand,” he continued.
According to him, the Russian army is in the process of cutting off Ukrainians’ access to the Black Sea, in particular by bombarding the city of Odessa. This would benefit Russia from the point of view of its naval forces while dealing a severe economic and strategic blow to Ukraine.
But Mr. Leduc is having a hard time seeing any benefit from the Russian invasion now.
“Even if they succeed in making a change of government, their gain is zero with the economic damage of the sanctions.”
A fuzzy plan B
The same feeling with Pierre St-Cyr, retired colonel and former Canadian defense attaché in Russia and Ukraine, who believes that the failure of the rapid operation that Russia was hoping to accomplish is creating huge problems.
This operation was described as a “disaster”, by American intelligence, marked by shortages of food and fuel, the abandonment of armed vehicles, the loss of planes and the death of soldiers, American intelligence.
“The Russians are currently mired in their way of doing things, believes Mr. St-Cyr. The time they take becomes an issue for them because every day the risk of information regarding the war reaching the Russian population increases and it can become a problem inside the country.
In recent days, the bombardments have intensified in several cities, including Karkhiv. According to Mr. St-Cyr, this is primarily intended to undermine the morale of the Ukrainians who had been underestimated and thus try to force the government of Ukraine to make concessions during the negotiations being held today.
“Normally, they should have returned with ease and taken over the country in a few days, says retired military doctor Marc Dauphin. ‘is dangerous.”
Very difficult to take Kyiv
On the ground, the options for taking Kyiv and overthrowing the government have also become more complex, according to Mr. St-Cyr.
“They have the option of going into Kyiv and crushing everything in front of them. But it would ignite the powder even more because there are historical monuments and places protected by UNESCO.
“The other option would be to encircle Kyiv, but by doing that they are embarking on a very long schedule.”
Because sending troops to fight in the City with buildings still standing might be catastrophic for the Russian army.
“I have friends in Kyiv and they have their AK47s in the living room. The Russian who returns, he sees nothing but buildings and can be shot by anyone behind his curtain. An urban guerrilla context is very difficult for an invader.”
Zelensky’s life in danger?
At the start of the invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the Russians wanted to assassinate him and his family. However, Pierre St-Cyr believes that the monster popularity that the head of state has won in a few days on the international scene will force the Russians to keep him alive if they manage to get their hands on him.
“It would probably be captured and they would use it to make a monster trial to justify their actions or to use it as a bargaining chip to get what they want.”