– As long as she does not make any major mistakes and manages to be a good representative of an anti-Trump coalition, which has proven to resonate with the majority of American voters, then she should have a good chance, says US expert Hilde Restad to NTB.
Restad is an associate professor at Oslo Nye Høyskole and author of the book “The American Paradox”. She believes the Democrats are in a strengthened position after Biden resigned.
– With the Joe Biden that everyone watched at the debate, if that is the comparison, then I would say the Democrats’ chances are strengthened, she says.
USA expert and associate professor Sofie Høgestøl at the University of Oslo also believes that Harris may have a chance to win. She believes that the election is now more open than in the past.
– This gives a new impetus to an election campaign that many Americans did not want. Poll after poll has shown a record high number of Americans who have been dissatisfied with both candidates, she tells NTB.
– Now this suddenly becomes something completely different.
The Democrats’ dream scenario
But before talking about Harris’s chances of winning, one must talk about whether she will actually be the Democrats’ presidential candidate. Biden immediately pointed to her when he withdrew as a presidential candidate on Sunday. Since then, the list of Democrats showing their support for Harris has grown ever longer.
– The dream scenario for the Democrats was that Biden would retire early and that everyone would gather around one candidate. That is what will give them the best chance of winning the election. So far, it looks like that is what is about to happen, says Hilde Restad.
USA expert and professor Hilmar Mjelde at Høgskulen på Vestlandet believes Harris will be a candidate. He also believes that the party has enough time to build up her candidacy during the next 100 days leading up to the election in November.
– There is more than enough time. She is the most established alternative and takes over important parts of Biden’s campaign apparatus. If you have a candidate with the right message at the right time, the organizational aspect is secondary. We saw that with Trump in 2016 and Bill Clinton in 1992, says Mjelde to NTB.
Will give the impression of an orderly process
While Harris has already received both record-high donations from important contributors and support from many quarters in the party, there are some who have so far remained silent. Both Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi are highlighted as key party leaders who have so far not shown support for Harris.
But that must not necessarily be interpreted as distrust of Harris, according to the experts.
– Obama has been restrained before and is probably aware that it should not look like he is crowning someone and putting a lid on what should, after all, be a democratically controlled party election, says Høgestøl.
– It could also be that they are aware that it must look like there has been an OK process here. How do you build Harris as the most impactful candidate possible? It may not be by crowning her within 24 hours after Biden resigned, says Høgestøl.
– I do not interpret it as a lack of support for Harris. They are in a way the council of elders in the party and will probably let the process play out as much as possible by itself in the future. They got what they wanted, which was Biden’s resignation, says Mjelde.
Tricky limbo situation for Harris
Høgestøl believes it could be a challenge for the Democrats if it looks like Harris gets the candidacy right in her lap without having to work for it, that she gets it too easily.
– She said yesterday that she wants to earn a nomination, says Høgestøl, who believes Harris must now appear humble and avoid appearing arrogant.
Formally, the Democrats’ presidential candidate will be chosen at the national meeting that starts on 19 August. Until then, Harris will be in a tricky situation, Restad points out.
– On the one hand, it is important for her to start the election campaign once and for all to make up for what was lost. At the same time, she is not the official candidate, so she will be in a limbo position until it is completely clear, says Restad.
– But she already has an established election campaign programme, which she will continue to attend.
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2024-07-23 23:34:49
