The institute, which is known for its regular reports on armaments developments, shows a dangerous mixture of environmental and security crises in the new publication. It harbors complex risks for world peace. According to the researchers, who insist on better international cooperation, decision-makers are not prepared for this “new age of risks”.
Sweden’s former Foreign Minister and EU Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström wrote in the report’s foreword: “The mixture is toxic, pervasive and harmful. And institutions with the power to find solutions are waking up far too slowly.”
Drought triggers a chain reaction
The link between the two challenges is well known, but the Environment of Peace report highlights its complexity and scope, said SIPRI Director Dan Smith. Humanity is only just beginning to understand what impact the “darkening” security situation combined with the climate crisis is having on global peace.
Examples include the persistent drought and other climatic changes in Somalia, which – combined with poverty, a lack of emergency preparedness and weak governance – would have driven the population straight into the arms of the Islamist terrorist group al-Shabab. Drought is also leading to more violent conflicts over farmland and water in the Sahel. In Central America, the effects of climate change on crops would lead to larger refugee movements towards the USA.
Ecologically threatened countries most at risk
Statistically speaking, those countries are most at risk where the ecological threat is greatest, according to the report presented at the ninth Stockholm Forum on Peace and Development. They therefore need special support. “Finance peace and not risks” such as subsidizing fossil fuels or deforestation is one recommendation.
In addition, better international cooperation is essential to better manage the risks of the current “toxic geopolitical landscape”. “Amid the escalating global crises, no government can ensure the well-being of its citizens without international cooperation,” said Helen Clark, ex-Prime Minister of New Zealand and member of the Advisory Board for the SIPRI report.
Prepare for the unexpected
The Stockholm Peace Institute also recommends “Expect the unexpected”. The pandemic has shown that preparation for new, unexpected crises is important and can limit damage. Take South Korea as an example, which got off better in the coronavirus crisis because of its past experience with epidemics. Forward-looking policies are just as important as short-term actions.
“Many environmental experts argue that we are at a crucial juncture: we can let the environmental crisis run its course, or we can recognize the problem now and do something regarding it,” Smith said. “The bad news is that this extremely important moment comes at a time when international politics is in a terrible state.”
