Despite early predictions, the RN might only secure third place in the French parliamentary elections, according to figures released by TF1 and France 2 following the polls closed. The left-wing alliance, Nouveau Front populaire, is projected to win between 172 and 215 seats out of 577, while Macron’s forces are expected to secure between 150 and 180 seats and the RN and its allies between 120 and 152 seats. As a result, none of the three blocs will hold an absolute majority, setting the stage for a period of political instability in France.
Following the initial forecasts, the left-green electoral alliance has asserted its claim to form a government. “The New Popular Front is ready to govern,” declared Jean-Luc Melenchon, the former leader of the left-wing populist party La France insoumise (LFI), in Paris. He demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. Supporters of the left-wing alliance chanted, “We have won,” while Socialist leader Olivier Faure expressed opposition to any potential “coalition” with the government camp.
Bardella: RN will “strengthen” work in opposition
In an initial response, Jordan Bardella, the leader of RN, announced an “intensified” opposition strategy. He claimed that France had been “thrown into the hands of the extreme left” following his party’s defeat in the elections.
The projected outcome came as a surprise. After the first round of voting a week prior, forecasters had predicted that the RN would fall just short of an absolute majority, potentially putting them in a position to form the next government. However, the shift towards the right has now been revealed to be smaller than initially anticipated.
On June 30, 76 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly were awarded. In 501 constituencies, no candidate achieved the absolute majority required in the first round. At least 50 constituencies were expected to hold extremely close runoff elections. The left and center camps had previously formed agreements at the constituency level for the runoff to prevent the RN from winning following its success in the first round.
Primosch: “Nobody expected that”
Following the first round of voting, many had expected the Rassemblement National (RN) to secure an absolute majority. However, according to forecasts, the united left unexpectedly garnered the most votes.
Macron: “The question is who can govern”
In response to the initial forecasts following the second round of the parliamentary elections, Macron urged caution in interpreting the results. “The question is who can govern and who can form a majority,” he stated on Sunday at the Elysee Palace. In keeping with republican traditions, Macron confirmed that he would wait to observe the structure of the new National Assembly before making any decisions. He emphasized that as the guarantor of state institutions, he would ensure “that the will of the voters is respected.”
Many open questions
With no political camp holding an absolute majority in parliament, a stalemate is impending. A new election within the year is improbable. The emerging results give rise to various potential scenarios. The left might attempt to secure support from centrist forces – either as a minority government with their tolerance or in a form of grand coalition. However, given the opposing political orientations, it remains uncertain whether this initiative would prove successful.
It is unclear whether President Macron would be compelled by political pressures to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the left in such a scenario. The National Assembly holds the power to overthrow the government. Should the prime minister come from the left, Macron would need to share power, consequently raising the prime minister’s significance. The left-wing alliance is internally divided and holds contrasting positions on several crucial political issues.
If none of the camps manage to secure a government majority, the current government might remain in office as a transitional government or a government of experts might be formed.
Withdrawal of over 200 candidates
Macron had unexpectedly called for the new election following the RN’s triumph in the European elections on June 9. The first round of the parliamentary elections last Sunday saw Marine Le Pen and her RN garner 29 percent of the vote, or 33 percent combined with allies, securing first place.
The alliance of the left and the greens led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, the Nouveau Front populaire (NFP), garnered 28 percent, while Macron’s center camp secured only 20 percent. These losses came as a significant shock for the losing parties, motivating them to form a cross-camp alliance of convenience to ensure the RN would not achieve an absolute majority in the second round. Subsequently, over 200 candidates withdrew in order to enhance the chances of victory for those better positioned in their constituencies.
ORF analysis: The consequences for Europe
Is there relief in Brussels that the Rassemblement National did not become the strongest force in France? France is heading for uncertain times, how will Berlin deal with this? ORF correspondents Raffaela Schaidreiter in Brussels and Andreas Pfeifer in Berlin analyze this and more.
High voter turnout
Voter interest in the elections was substantial. According to the French Interior Ministry in Paris, voter turnout reached 59.71 percent by 5 p.m. In contrast, the figure was 38.11 percent at the same time in 2022. In the first round of voting a week earlier, overall voter turnout reached 66.71 percent. According to the television station BFMTV, this might mark the highest voter turnout since 1997.
High security precautions
Extensive security measures were in place for the elections. Fear of riots led to the deployment of 30,000 police officers across France throughout the evening. A contingent of 5,000 officers was deployed solely in Paris and its suburbs, as previously announced by Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin.
The broadcaster Franceinfo reported that shops on the renowned Parisian shopping street Avenue des Champs Elysees were closed and barricaded. Similar security precautions were implemented in anticipation of potential riots in other major cities throughout the country.
French Parliamentary Elections: Left-Wing Alliance Wins, RN Falls Short
The results of the French parliamentary elections have brought regarding a significant shift in the political landscape, with the left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon emerging as the surprise winner, while the Rassemblement National (RN) fell short of its expected victory.
Left-Wing Alliance Claims Victory
The left-green electoral alliance, known as the Nouveau Front populaire (NFP), has claimed victory in the elections, based on initial forecasts. This alliance, comprised of the left-wing populist party La France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party, and the Greens, is projected to win between 172 and 215 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the former leader of LFI, declared that the NFP is “ready to govern” and called for the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.
The strong performance of the left-wing alliance has surprised many observers, who had expected the RN to secure a majority following its strong showing in the first round of voting. This unexpected turn of events has led to a period of political uncertainty in France and raised questions regarding the future of the government.
RN’s Disappointing Outcome
The RN, led by Jordan Bardella, will be playing a “strengthened” role in the opposition following its disappointing performance in the elections. Bardella expressed his disappointment, stating that France had been “thrown into the hands of the extreme left” following the RN’s failure to secure a majority. The party’s failure to live up to pre-election expectations has dealt a significant blow to its ambitions to lead the country.
Macron’s Response and the Future of the Government
President Emmanuel Macron, in response to the election results, urged caution in interpreting the forecasts. He emphasized the importance of forming a majority government and ensuring the respect of the voters’ will, stating that the question of who can govern is paramount. Macron, in keeping with republican tradition, will wait to see the final composition of the National Assembly before making any decisions regarding the formation of a government.
The lack of a clear majority for any single camp creates a complex situation for Macron, who may face significant pressure to appoint a prime minister from the left. This scenario would require him to share power and grant a more prominent role to the prime minister. However, the left-wing alliance is internally divided, making it difficult to predict whether it can form a cohesive government.
Other potential scenarios include the current government remaining in office as a transitional government or the formation of a government of experts. A new election within a year is unlikely.
Strategic Alliances and High Voter Turnout
The second round of voting witnessed a significant effort from the left and center camps to prevent the RN from securing a majority. Over 200 candidates withdrew from the race to consolidate support behind candidates better positioned to win their constituencies. This strategic alliance, orchestrated by the left and the center, played a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome.
Voter turnout was remarkably high, reaching 59.71 percent by 5 p.m. on election day, according to the French Interior Ministry. This was significantly higher than the turnout at the same time in 2022 (38.11 percent) and the first round of voting this year (66.71 percent). Some reports suggest that this might be the highest voter turnout since 1997, indicating a high level of public engagement in the political process.
Security Precautions and Concerns regarding Possible Unrest
In anticipation of potential unrest, extensive security measures were deployed across France on election day. Over 30,000 police officers were tasked with maintaining order, including 5,000 in Paris and its suburbs. Shops on the Avenue des Champs Elysees were barricaded, and other large cities took similar precautions to prevent any incidents of violence. These measures reflect the heightened security concerns in the wake of the election and the potential for protests or civil unrest.
