On September 19, 2024, the in-depth analysis of the threat posed by Iran to US bases in the Middle East (from Egypt to the oil Gulf) was presented in Florida and at the top US forward air base in Qatar. The report focuses on the threat posed by the strategic vulnerability of the current array of critical US bases in the Gulf region and the urgent need for a major shift, given Tehran’s now multidimensional capabilities.
The report stresses that Iran’s advanced ballistic missile, cruise missile and UAV/drones capabilities put US bases at serious risk during a war. US bases in the Middle East, such as Al-Udeid in Qatar, Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates, and the bases in Bahrain (home of the US 5th Fleet in Manama) and Kuwait, were originally built to deal with different threats in the last decades, including the Soviet threat during the Cold War and the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and against ISIS.
Iran, which has emphasized its offensive capabilities in recent years, has not only increased the number of missiles and UAV systems in its arsenal, but also improved their accuracy and extended their range. The result is that the risk of a massive attack on US bases (especially those near Iran) is a tangible and clear threat. He warns that Iran’s advanced strike capabilities allow it to drop on US and regional bases large numbers of missiles and UAVs, which could overwhelm US air defense systems and severely damage vital infrastructure (saturation).
The Gulf States
The main solution he proposed is to move US bases further west in the Middle East, further away from the source of Iranian threats. He proposed the development of a flexible network of bases that would include Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Egypt and Israel. These bases would be further out of range of Iran’s missiles, making it harder for Tehran to hit them through a critical mass strike, even if they were still within striking distance. But if it does, we should be able to move our fighters and our bombers to areas where the Iranians have a much harder time finding us. It was further confirmed by Iran’s malign behavior, which finally convinced the Gulf states that a collective approach to air and missile defense is necessary and possible without sacrificing sovereignty. In 2021 and 2022, there were secret meetings of the chiefs of the General Staff of the Arab states attended by key Arab military leaders, as well as the chief of the IDF. In these meetings it became clear that the threat of Iranian missiles and drones was existential to the Gulf states, as well as to Israel.
The US continues to act as the honest broker in this deal. They remain the necessary country. Despite the need to move most forces to the west, this does not mean the complete abandonment of existing bases. The Al Udeid base in Qatar and whether it will continue to operate there is a political matter, not a military one, but that particular base is still an important asset in the structure of the regional arrangement from the American point of view.
Qatar has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade the Al-Udeid base, strengthening its status as a major hub for US forces in the Gulf. According to the general, the time for an American realignment is now, to improve operational readiness and deterrence against Iran and protect American interests in the region. The steps outlined (below in the conclusions) include not only the necessary strategic adaptation to current military threats, but also the strengthening of regional alliances and partnerships aimed at deterring Iran from direct aggression. He further acknowledged that it is doubtful that this plan will affect the activities of Iran’s broader Shiite axis and its proxies across the Middle East, such as Hezbollah and Mesopotamian Shiite militias.
In any major conflict scenario with Iran, the central calculus will be gauging how long the Iranians could withstand drone and missile bombardment by their neighbors in the face of US efforts to strike their launch systems and command facilities and control. Such a war would depend heavily on the American use of strike aircraft, tankers, and air and missile defenses. However, US strike aircraft in the Middle East are at sites along the southern Persian Gulf coast, and in the event of a collision, Iranian missiles can reach them in five minutes or less. This would be exacerbated by the fact that the supply and rearmament facilities of these bases are largely immobile and therefore vulnerable to Iranian airstrikes, which could bypass US defenses at vital facilities along the Gulf.
REDUCTION OF WARNING TIME
The short distance, the advantage of the Iranians
Although the US operates advanced defense systems such as the Patriot-3 and the THAAD system, it is pointed out that in the event of a large-scale attack they may be overwhelmed and unable to defend all bases in the region. In addition, the geographical location of the bases, being very close to Iran, gives the Iranians a significant advantage as they can launch attacks quickly. This reduces the warning time for US forces and creates a situation where these bases are vulnerable. As part of these threats, the extended Iranian attack on Israel in April 2024 is mentioned, where Iran tried to hit critical targets in Israel using about 300 missiles and drones. Although the attack failed, largely due to the joint defense of Israel and the US, the attack served as a warning sign throughout the region about Iran’s ability to launch a large-scale attack.
Another confirmation of this came in the additional attack against Israel by Iran on October 1, 2024, where Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles into Israeli territory. Addressing the threat, the top general outlined a series of strategic steps aimed at ensuring the US’s ability to protect its military assets and deter Iran from further aggression.
SUGGESTIONS FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE
In conclusion, this new report recommends that the US:
– Review of the location of US military assets in the region, both on a day-to-day basis and on an emergency basis.
– Working with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman and Egypt to locate bases as far west as possible to deploy aircraft, maintenance capabilities, refueling and weapons capabilities.
– Relocation of ground-based air defense systems, based on warnings and indications of war, from their current locations along the Gulf to bases further west.
– Further materialize and exploit Israel’s shift in 2021 from the European Command’s Area of Responsibility (EUCOM AOR) to Central Command’s CENTCOM AOR, considering Israel’s potential role in alternative base structures.
– Continue air and missile defense cooperation with friendly Arab states, including working to understand what sensor information should be shared and how to share it.
– Focusing on the necessary resources and technical messages to prevent Iran and its proxies from continuing to launch deadly attacks across the region.
– Adopting a posture that allows the US to quickly and frequently reposition itself based on regional developments.
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