2024-03-12 19:26:00
The exchange market readjusted this Tuesday to the surprise rate cut that the Central Bank announced on Monday night. Since the opening, The financial dollars rebounded strongly and ended with a rise that practically erased all the fall that they accumulated this year.
Cash with liquid, the way companies use to dollarize, jumped 4.5% and ended at $1,067; while The MEP dollar or stock market rose 5.6% from a lower level and was just above $1,036.Meanwhile, the blue dollar, which had begun the stable cycle, added $15 and returned to $1,020.
The bullish movement in the exchange market comes on a day when the inflation data for February was expected, The Ministry of Economy faces a debt swap with the public and private sectors and the banks quickly rearranged the returns they offer for fixed-term placements.
He Central Bank “released” the minimum rates that governed for these placements and most of the entities faced a sharp reduction, since They went from the 110% annual rate they had until Monday to a level of between 70% and 75%. This minor premium puts pressure on the parallel dollar and the exchange rate gap, which had settled at around 20%
In Delphos they warned: “Negative real rates for longer can re-boost financial dollars in the coming days. In this context the bets of carry trade endure greater uncertainty.”
Along the same lines, PPI pointed out: “The cut in yields reduces the attractiveness of strategies carry tradeand, therefore, could mean a pause in the peso appreciation process. However, we maintain our doubts. In our opinion, the evolution of financial dollars depends more on the engineering of the stocks than anything else.”
For PPI analysts “if the supply of dollars through the 80-20 scheme persists and the demand for cash with liquid continues to be repressed (the Bopreal Series 3 shows this), it is likely that the effect on the dollar will be relatively slight.”
Economist Gustavo Ber also believes that the rise in the dollar will occur in a calm context: “As was predictable, financial dollars react immediately with a bullish rearrangement, especially after the sharp decline in recent times since some bets towards hecarry-trade¨ could be closing after recent strong gains. Even so, with a “gap” that has just returned to just 20%, the slide would be orderly as a climate of exchange calm still prevails, “he said.
In the wholesale segment, the drop in traded volume was surprising, the same day that the Central Bank confirmed the opening of imports for products in the basic basket. In the cash segment, US$ 258.78 million were traded, about US$ 32 million in the MAE and another US$ 370 million in the futures market.
The exchange operator Gustavo Quintana stated about the closing of the wheel that there was a “Vertical drop in the volume operated in the wholesale dollar wheel, the lowest record since last February 19.”
For Quintana: “The measures provided generated a change in expectations that translated into an attitude of prudence that was reflected in the amount negotiated,” he said and added: “The modification in the rate policy requires a strategic rethinking of financial entities. “We have to see how everything rearranges itself from now on.”
In the futures market there was a drop of up to 6.5% in contracts. “Rates are an important component in the valuation of futures. There was probably a lot of selling today due to the creation of synthetics,” explained Andrés Reschini, from F2 Soluciones Financial.
In this context, the Central Bank was able to buy another US$ 90 million and maintains its positive streak in the official market where it has accumulated US$ 1,460 million in March and US$ 9,952 million in the three months that have passed since the devaluation that Luis Caputo faced .
In the stock market, the response to the changes in monetary policy, the lower-than-expected inflation data and the announcement of the opening of imports was positive: the Merval index jumped 7.7% and dollar bonds had improvements of up to 2.0%. 8%. The country risk fell to 1,645 points.
Salvador Vitelli, from Romano Group, summarized: “Argentine assets had a good performance. Beyond the exchange rate issue that caused all prices to be adjusted in pesos, the Merval, for example, if one looks at it, valued in dollars counted with liqui rose 2.3%, which is a good indication. This occurred in a not so favorable global context but from here the local prevailed and, well, just with the inflation data, it led to them having this better performance in the dollar market”.
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