Israel launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon on the night of Monday to Tuesday. Why is Israel doing this? How long will this conflict last? What needs to be done to end the war?
Defense specialist from HCSS Peter Wijninga explains in Good Morning Netherlands on NPO 1 what is going on in the Middle East, now that Israel has started a ground offensive.
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Why is Israel conducting a ground offensive?
“It will be several actions, targeting places in southern Lebanon, along the border where they have identified that Hezbollah has infrastructure. These can be tunnels, warehouses, command posts and other locations. They want to destroy it. In this way we try to protect the strip along the border from the presence and actions of Hezbollah.”
Is there fear of further escalation?
“The situation is risky, so there is that risk. Also because Iran can respond and come to Hezbollah’s aid. They won’t do that with ground troops, but they will do that with a massive rocket attack. There is also a risk that Syria will interfere, because it also borders Lebanon. Many weapons end up in Lebanon from Iran via Syria.”
How long will this last?
“That’s very difficult to say. Israel says they are local, targeted and limited locations. This could indicate that they go to a village, carry out actions there and then withdraw again.”
“Hezbollah has said that they will continue to fight against Israel as long as the war in Gaza continues. Hezbollah will try to frustrate Israel’s actions by continuing to fire rockets. Perhaps they will retreat a little further north. Possibly even above the Litani River. A river that runs through east-west Lebanon, about 30 kilometers from the border. We have now seen that Hezbollah also has long-range weapons. In other words: from that point on they can still target Israel.”
What needs to be done to resolve this conflict?
“The only solution is for a truce in Gaza between Hamas and Israel. Then Hezbollah stops firing. Then in the meantime you can work on removing Hezbollah from the border region, so that they actually withdraw above the Litani River. That was also the agreement in 2006, following a UN resolution. Which all parties agreed to.”
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“The parties in Gaza must make compromises to reach a truce. That’s very difficult. We have seen that in recent months. Every time, one or both parties are obstructive because they do not want to give up. It is related to the conflict in the north and Hezbollah only really stops shooting after there is such a truce.”
Is Netanyahu willing to make any concessions?
“That is very questionable. The question is also whether Israel can afford to be active in southern Lebanon for very long. It also still has the situation in Gaza pending. That costs a lot of money. It is a huge burden on the Israeli economy and on the Israeli army. Maybe Hezbollah is thinking: we will withdraw for a while and then we will sit quietly and wait.”
Is Netanyahu still dealing with the hostages in Gaza?
“In the eyes of the hostages’ families, Netanyahu did not pay enough attention to this during the entire war. That is the constant criticism of the Netanyahu government. If it were up to the hostages’ families, the truce would have already been in place to free the hostages. That is very difficult. He is under domestic pressure, but also under foreign pressure. The Americans are exerting pressure to limit this conflict and the hostile attacks they are now making within Lebanon.”
Can the UN still do something, for example with a resolution?
“No, that doesn’t make much sense. It is good that people are talking about it, but there is little point at the moment. If there is a resolution condemning Israel, Israel will ignore it. All Israel is doing now is harping on the 2006 resolution, which agreed that Hezbollah would withdraw above the Litani River. Israel wants to achieve that again.”
Also read:
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By: Vick ten Wolde
