The ruling Georgian Dream party is leading the parliamentary elections in Georgia, which are considered crucial for the country’s future in the European Union. The first preliminary results released by the Central Election Commission (CEC) show that, with 97% of electronic votes counted, Georgian Dream obtained 52.99% of the votes. This figure does not include paper ballots and not all votes from Georgians abroad have yet been counted. If the victory of Georgian Dream were confirmed, the party would obtain a parliamentary majority and this would fuel fears for the path towards the EU. But these preliminary results came after the first exit polls showed contrasting results and both sides, both the outgoing government force and the pro-EU ones, claimed victory.
The vote took place in an extremely polarized climate and was presented by the opposition as a choice between returning to the path of EU membership – in the event of a vote for the opposition – or moving closer to Russia’s orbit – in case of voting for the outgoing government. Both Georgian Dream, which has been in power for 12 years, and the opposition have said they want Georgia to join the EU, but Tbilisi’s accession process was suspended earlier this year by Brussels after It was under the Georgian Dream executive that the controversial law on so-called ‘foreign agents’, inspired by Russia, was approved. The exit polls released at the close of the polls showed contrasting results: those commissioned by two TV stations close to the opposition put the cumulative votes of the opposition in the lead, while the survey commissioned by the pro-government TV station Imedi gave Georgian Dream at 56.1%. Soon after, all sides claimed victory.
Starting with the founder of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who made his fortune in Russia: “It is rare in the world that the same party achieves such success in such a difficult situation”, he said, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban rejoiced on X speaking of “overwhelming victory” for Georgian Dream. On the other hand, however, the pro-EU president Salome Zourabichvili made herself heard by saying that “European Georgia is winning with 52% despite attempts to rig the elections”. Election day was intense, with reports of fraud and clashes. The Georgian Interior Ministry said it had launched an investigation following the release of a video circulating on social media showing a man putting several ballot papers into a ballot box at a polling station in the city of Marneuli, 42 kilometers from south of Tbilisi. Scuffles broke out outside a polling station and the main opposition party, the United National Movement, said its office was attacked on voting day. Challenging Georgian Dream at the polls were the coalitions United National Movement, the Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia and the Gakharia for Georgia party. They had ignored Zourabichvili’s request to unite into a single party, but signed his ‘charter’ to carry out the reforms required by the EU for membership. All opposition groups had made it clear before the vote that they did not intend to collaborate with Georgian Dream. And Gakharia for Georgia, founded by former prime minister Giorgi Gakharia, has made it known that it will not ally with anyone but will support the opposition to form a government.
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**Interview with Dr. Ana Kapanadze, Political Analyst on Georgian Elections**
**Editor:** Good day, Dr. Kapanadze. Thank you for joining us today. The recent parliamentary elections in Georgia have been quite the topic of discussion. Can you share your thoughts on the preliminary results showing Georgian Dream leading with 52.99% of the vote?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** Thank you for having me. The preliminary results indeed signal a significant moment for Georgia. While Georgian Dream has been dominant in these elections, this outcome raises concerns about the country’s trajectory toward EU membership, especially given the polarized climate surrounding the elections.
**Editor:** Speaking of polarization, how do you see the voters’ sentiment, especially with the contrasting narratives presented by both the government and the opposition?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** Voter sentiment is divided. On one hand, the opposition has framed their campaign as a critical choice for the future of Georgia, emphasizing a return to the EU’s path. On the other hand, the government has aligned itself with a narrative of stability. This duality highlights the deep divisions in Georgia’s political landscape, and the contrasting exit polls further complicate matters.
**Editor:** There has been mention of the controversial foreign agents’ law and its implications for Georgia’s EU aspirations. How do you think this played into the election results?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** The foreign agents’ law, which mirrors legislation from Russia, has certainly tainted the government’s image both domestically and internationally. Many voters are wary of any movements that may lead Georgia closer to Russia. It’s likely that for some voters, this law was a deciding factor, making them lean towards the opposition, despite the mixed exit poll outcomes.
**Editor:** If Georgian Dream confirms its victory and secures a parliamentary majority, what might this mean for Georgia’s future and its EU aspirations?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** A confirmed victory for Georgian Dream may solidify their power; however, it could hinder Georgia’s EU aspirations further. The European Union may view this as a setback, especially since the country’s accession process was already put on hold earlier this year. It’s essential for Georgia to maintain its pro-European stance to pave the way for future negotiations.
**Editor:** what do you predict moving forward? Could we see more protests or political unrest depending on how the final results are interpreted?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** It’s certainly a possibility. Given the charged atmosphere leading up to the elections and the contrasting claims of victory from both sides, tensions could escalate. We may see protests from the opposition if they feel the results do not accurately reflect the will of the people. The coming days will be critical in shaping Georgia’s political landscape, and I encourage everyone to stay informed as the situation develops.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. Kapanadze, for your insights on this crucial topic. We appreciate your time.
**Dr. Kapanadze:** Thank you for having me.
**Editor:** Good day, Dr. Kapanadze. Thank you for joining us today. The recent parliamentary elections in Georgia have been quite the topic of discussion. Can you share your thoughts on the preliminary results showing Georgian Dream leading with 52.99% of the vote?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** Thank you for having me. The preliminary results indeed signal a significant moment for Georgia. While Georgian Dream has been dominant in these elections, this outcome raises concerns about the country’s trajectory toward EU membership, especially given the polarized climate surrounding the elections.
**Editor:** Speaking of polarization, how do you see the voters’ sentiment, especially with the contrasting narratives presented by both the government and the opposition?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** Voter sentiment is divided. On one hand, the opposition has framed their campaign as a critical choice for the future of Georgia, emphasizing a return to the EU’s path. On the other hand, the government has aligned itself with a narrative of stability. This duality highlights the deep divisions in Georgia’s political landscape, and the contrasting exit polls further complicate matters.
**Editor:** There has been mention of the controversial foreign agents’ law and its implications for Georgia’s EU aspirations. How do you think this played into the election results?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** The foreign agents’ law, which mirrors legislation from Russia, has certainly tainted the government’s image both domestically and internationally. Many voters are wary of any movements that may lead Georgia closer to Russia. It’s likely that for some voters, this law was a deciding factor, making them lean towards the opposition, despite the mixed exit poll outcomes.
**Editor:** Additionally, reports of fraud and clashes on election day have emerged. How do you think these incidents will affect public trust in the electoral process?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** Those incidents are troubling and certainly undermine public trust in the electoral process. When citizens witness or hear about fraud, it breeds skepticism about the legitimacy of the results, regardless of which side they support. Restoring faith in the electoral process will be essential for whoever governs going forward.
**Editor:** what implications do you foresee if Georgian Dream maintains its parliamentary majority?
**Dr. Kapanadze:** If Georgian Dream confirms its majority, it may reinforce the current government’s policies, and this could signal a longer journey away from EU integration, particularly if relations with the West cool further. However, it could also provoke intensified opposition efforts to unite and challenge the government’s legitimacy, making the political landscape even more dynamic and contentious.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. Kapanadze, for sharing your insights on this critical issue. We appreciate your time.
**Dr. Kapanadze:** Thank you for having me. It’s an important conversation for the future of Georgia.
