Author: Chen Weitai
[The same is 24 yuan, the meaning behind it is different]
It has been more than a week since Evergreen Shipping (2603) announced its dividend policy. After thinking regarding it for a while, I decided to share my personal views with you here. Of course, these views may not be shared by everyone, and may even be dissatisfied by some people, but as an objective stock market observer, I still want to write them down and share them with you.
First of all, let’s start with the original market expectations. Since the three stocks of Evergreen (2603), Yangming (2609), and Wanhai (2615), which are the so-called “Three Heroes of Containers” in the market, will have very good profits in 2021, so many legal persons and market experts It is estimated that under the assumption that the dividend policy will distribute 50%, the cash dividend yield of Container Sanxiong should be very good.
Taking Evergreen as an example, last year’s EPS was as high as 48 yuan. According to the 50% dividend ratio, Evergreen Shipping should distribute a cash dividend of 24 yuan.
Perhaps it is a coincidence, or it may be that Evergreen has also heard these expectations from the market. When the dividend policy was announced, it announced a cash dividend of 18 yuan and a cash capital reduction of 6 yuan. The two figures add up to just 24 yuan. But the meaning behind it is not the same.
[It is suggested that the company has a cash dividend of 24 yuan and a cash capital reduction of 6 yuan]
First of all, cash dividends are actually the income of shareholders’ investment, or the remuneration we are talking regarding. It is only natural that the company earns more and distributes more dividends.
The cash capital reduction is called the return of shareholder price in accounting, which simply means that the company returns the excess shareholder price to investors. And this money should belong to the investor in the first place, and because it belongs to the investor, it does not belong to the dividend income or the remuneration of the investment, so it does not need to be taxed.
Because of this, many journalist friends mentioned this cash reduction in the news, which is of great benefit to investors, and appreciates Evergreen’s approach.
But I personally don’t think these two things can be confused. Because if the company really has a plan and intends to distribute a dividend of 24 yuan to investors, it should be a cash dividend of 24 yuan, plus a cash dividend of 6 yuan, and the total should be 30 yuan. Instead of taking money to investors from the part of retained earnings or the part of capital reserves.
In addition, I want to make another point. I remember that in 2021, when the company’s stock price performed well, Evergreen organized a convertible corporate bond financing. Generally speaking, financing plans are divided into three categories: the first is cash capital increase, the second is the issuance of corporate bonds, and the third is the issuance of private equity. Either way, you are taking money from the investing public.
However, in the next year following raising funds with the public, the money was returned to shareholders by means of cash capital reduction. On the surface, it seems that there is no difference, but the real beneficiaries should be the major shareholders mentioned in the news. ! According to the chip data, the shareholding ratio of thousands of large households exceeds 60%, and the shareholding ratio of thousands of large households has gradually increased in the past 6 months. It is hard not to think that everything is in planning.
However, everything I did was legal and compliant. It just made me, as a bystander, feel a little sorry for the minority shareholders.
[The stock price turns to range-bound]
However, an investment is an investment, and a comment is a comment. Is it possible to invest in Sanxiong in the container now?To be honest, I personally think that this year’s container three heroesProfit growthIt will not be higher than last year, and the development of stock prices is often related to the company’s profit growth momentum. On the bright side, this year’s container Sanxiong can still have a pretty good profit figure under the premise of high freight rates, but realistically speaking, the stock price may not be able to rise as much as last year, but to change. For the large box-type oscillator structure. This is the basic concept in stock investing.
If we focus once more on Evergreen Shipping, we just mentioned that Evergreen Shipping issued the fourth convertible corporate bond last year. The current conversion price of this convertible corporate bond is 93.6 yuan, and the unconverted The ratio exceeds 90%. In other words, I personally speculate that the stock price should be relatively supportive at a low price before most investors convert.
However, if we think regarding it from another point of view, if the conversion rate of corporate bonds becomes faster and the proportion of unconverted bonds decreases, then the lower support of the stock price will gradually weaken.
Because under the current time and space background, owning stocks can enjoy the benefits of cash dividends and cash capital reduction, which is more attractive than holding corporate bonds to maturity. So I personally speculate that there will be signs of conversion of convertible corporate bonds next.
【Be aware of the possibility of the next share capital expansion】
Once the convertible corporate bonds are fully converted into shares, it will cause the expansion of the share capital, and the expansion of the share capital will dilute the profit per share. Perhaps because of this, the company needs to use the capital reduction to maintain the profit per share. If this is the case, does it also imply that the company believes that the growth rate of profit may not keep up with the speed of equity expansion? Maybe this inference coincides with my point of view, or maybe I use the heart of a villain to treat the belly of a gentleman. However, such risks or possibilities should be taken into account by all investment friends.
Okay, I reiterate that the above are all my personal and superficial views. Please decide which method is more your own when it comes to your investment decisions.Finally, I wish everyone a smooth investment and a happy operation
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About the Author:
Engaged in the financial and securities industry for nearly 20 years, qualified securities analyst, currently the chief investment officer of Zhongying Wealth, CMoney Quanyao Financial Consultant, financial editor, and lecturer of the Securities Foundation, Zhongzheng Community University and Star Cloud Academy, Yahoo wealth management column, business Zhou Fortune Network special author.
The investment mentality first focuses on the long-short cycle of the overall economy, and combines fundamental stock selection with technical operations; it is believed that “selecting the opportunity to enter the market” is the profit method of stock market investment. Currently there are 2 books: “Trust me, you can’t make enough money” and “The calendar of Taiwan stockholders”.