2023-09-03 08:21:45
On the first trading day of September, Samsung Electronics rose 6.1% and returned to ‘70,000 Electronics’, but the KOSPI only rose 0.29%. Foreign investors net bought 368.9 billion won in the KOSPI, but as they net sold large stocks such as LG Energy Solutions and SK Hynix, there were far more stocks that fell (553 stocks) than stocks that rose (316 stocks). In the stock market, the fact that the index did not move despite the expected meaningful rebound of Samsung Electronics, a major stock, is viewed as a signal that the market in the box will continue in a situation where the supply and demand of foreigners and institutional investors are limited.
According to the financial investment industry on the 3rd, for the KOSPI band in September, Kyobo Securities is 2450-2700, Daol Investment & Securities is 2440-2660, Samsung Securities is 2450-2650, Shinhan Investment & Securities is 2400-2650, Kiwoom Securities is 2450-2680, Hanwha Investment & Securities suggested 2350 to 2750. It was expected to be a box range that did not deviate significantly from the KOSPI 2563.71 on the 1st.
The reason why the stock market, which had been rallying until July, remained sluggish despite the rebound of the major stock, Samsung Electronics, is because expectations for second half earnings are weakening in the absence of new capital inflows. For this reason, despite the release of Korea’s August trade indicators, which were more positive than expected, foreigners showed a pattern of selling and then buying stocks that were previously held rather than newly buying cyclical export stocks. A case in point is that a foreigner net sold SK Hynix on the 1st, which had been benefiting from the HBM effect, following the news of Samsung Electronics supplying high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to Nvidia.
The average trading value of the KOSPI was 14,436.6 billion won in the first week of August, but decreased to 8,783 billion won from the 28th to the 31st. Investor deposits were also 51,578.8 billion won as of August 31, down significantly from 58,199 billion won on July 27, when the secondary battery investment craze was blowing.
Kim Hyung-ryeol, head of Kyobo Securities Research Center, said, “Even though Samsung Electronics, which accounts for 20% of the market capitalization, has risen significantly, the reason why the KOSPI remains the same is because the supply and demand of passive new funds is limited.” As this concentration is concentrated, other stocks are falling out, a kind of ‘headwind effect’ is appearing,” he said. It is explained that when one stock or industry stands out, other stocks fall out.
Institutions showed net selling for two months in a row and foreigners for three months in a row. However, there are concerns that supply and demand capacity will further weaken as September, before the announcement of the third quarter results, showed a seasonality in the past when trading value decreased. Choi Yoo-joon, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, pointed out, “Foreigners’ futures supply and demand have been flowing in for four consecutive days, but it is still difficult to find the direction of spot supply and demand.”
As institutional net buying capacity weakens, individual investors’ direct investment and exchange-traded fund (ETF) investment continues to lead the market.
According to fund appraiser FnGuide, a net outflow of 95.6 billion won from active stock funds over the past month. On the other hand, as ETF investment became active, index stock funds saw a net inflow of 980.4 billion won. Funds that invest primarily in sector ETFs rather than entire indices.
The fact that the KOSPI earnings consensus in 2H following the 2Q earnings announcement has slowed further is also a factor limiting the upward rally. Exports are also showing a slower-than-expected recovery, and earnings estimates for the second half of the year in semiconductors, chemicals, steel, and displays have gone down further. Kim Ji-san, head of Kiwoom Securities Research Center, said, “It is not easy for the KOSPI to rise in a situation where US inflation indicators temporarily rise and there are macro concerns such as Chinese real estate defaults.” I have no choice but to,” he said.
Investors’ sense of alienation can intensify as the circular sale of the seesaw game, when one stock or industry rises in the box range, not the general bull market, the other stocks fall. If only secondary batteries and theme stocks have risen in the stock market so far, there is a possibility that only a few other sectors will rise.
[김제림 기자]
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