In its monthly bulletin issued yesterday, the Bundesbank said that Germany has entered a phase of a “clear, generalized and sustained decline” of its economy on the back of rising energy costs for companies.
According to “French”, “Bundesbank” wrote in a note that was overshadowed by pessimism, that “indicators of deflation are increasing” in the German economy, and they are mostly caused by “the general conditions of economic supply, especially energy supplies, which have deteriorated to a large extent following the Russian-Ukrainian war.” “.
The financial institution added that inflation, which continues to rise and approached 8 percent in August, and the uncertainty about the future of energy supplies and prices, will harm the “energy-consuming” sectors, which rely in particular on gas, by affecting their exports and investments, as well as “private consumption.” and the service providers they depend on.
After cutting off supplies of Russian gas to Germany, on which it depended for 55 per cent before the war in Ukraine, the central bank warned that supplies would be “extremely difficult in the coming months”.
After GDP recorded a modest 0.1 percent increase in the second quarter of the year, “Bundesbank” expected it to “reduce significantly in the fourth quarter” and “most likely during the first quarter of next year”, without giving specific figures.
The economy is in a technical contraction after recording two consecutive quarters of decline.
Joachim Nagel, the head of the central bank, issued a similar forecast in early September, noting the “possibility” of entering a deflationary state at the end of the year and the beginning of 2023.
“There are a number of elements” that point to this scenario, he said.
Last week, the Ifo Institute, one of Germany’s largest research institutes, expected a technical contraction in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP falling 0.4 percent after an expected 0.2 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2022.
In a context related to the German economy, ship brokers and commodity traders said yesterday that the water level of the Rhine River in Germany rose thanks to the recent rains, approaching normal levels before dropping this summer to low levels that disrupted transport.
According to “Archyde.com”, the brokers added that due to expectations that dry weather will prevail in most parts of the week, the level may decrease again, and that the situation has not returned to normal yet. The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grain, minerals, coal and petroleum products, including heating oil. Weeks of high temperatures and less rain in August lowered the water level in the river, Germany’s trade artery, causing shipping delays and raising costs. Europe by half a percentage point this year.
But the reference water level at Kaupp, a choke point, near Koblenz, rose to 1.39 meters yesterday, compared to just 32 centimeters in August. For ships to sail at full load, a reference level of about 1.5 meters at Kaupe is required.
In the banking sector, a report in Germany revealed that the American bank “BNY Mellon” and the German “Hamburger Warburg Invest” are obligated to pay 60 million euros to the Federal Tax Office in Germany, “the Tax Authority” against the background of the major tax evasion scandal known as “KAM”. X”.
And the German newspaper, “Handelsblatt”, stated that the two banks bear the implicit responsibility for the tax liability of the “BC German” German stock fund, which was managed by the Bank “Varburg” in 2009. The company specialized in the deposit or custody at that time was BHF Asset Servicing which was subsequently acquired by BNY.
It is noteworthy that “Varburg Invest” is a capital investment company of the “Hamburger Varburg” group.
A spokesman for Germany’s Deutsche Bank said the bank would participate in the amount, which will be paid by BNY, but did not give figures. “It is still possible to reduce the final amounts related to payments made by a third party,” he added.
The Bhf Depository Company was owned during the period in which the incident occurred by the Sal.Openheim Group which was acquired by Deutsche Bank in 2010, and a few months later the company was sold to BNY.
The CamX scandal is the largest tax scandal in German history, as it cost the German state billions of euros in losses, as a complex network of bankers, brokers and investors managed to loot the state treasury for decades without interference from the authorities.
Banks and stockbrokers used to trade shares before the dividend was due through what is known as “CamX Strategies”, a series of trading strategies, which were designed to exploit tax differences across Europe, and some banks played an important role in this.
During the confusion caused by the back-and-forth trading of these shares, those involved in this scandal recovered taxes that were never paid, which cost the German state treasury billions of euros in double-digit losses.
(function(P,o,s,t,Q,r,e)function(),P[Q].l=1*new Date();r=o.createElement(s),
e=o.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];r.async=1;r.src=t;e.parentNode.insertBefore(r,e) )(
window,document,’script’,’//widget.postquare.com/_widget_loader.js’,’__posWidget’);
__posWidget(‘createWidget’,wwei:’POSTQUARE_WIDGET_122394′,pubid: 165709,webid:171079,wid:122394,on:’postquare’);