Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Paints Alarming Picture of Europe’s Defense Readiness
In a candid conversation at his November 6 confirmation hearing, Andrius Kubilius, designated as the European Union’s first-ever commissioner for defense and space, revealed a recent war game simulation that exposed Lithuania’s vulnerability to a potential Russian attack. According to Kubilius, the exercise predicted that Lithuania would be overrun by Russian forces and occupied before NATO troops arrived, likely within 10 days.
To mitigate this threat, Lithuania estimates its defense spending needs to double from the current 3% of GDP to 6%. This increase is crucial, given that European countries, on average, spend significantly less on defense than the United States, which allocates 3.4% of its GDP. Kubilius poignantly asked his fellow parliamentarians, "How can we do it? How much can the European Union help us? That is the question we need to answer together."
Rising Concerns About Imminent Threats to European Security
More than 1,000 days have passed since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and with the prospect of a second Trump administration, Europeans are increasingly worried about the impending threat of war. The past year has seen a significant escalation of sabotage attributed to Moscow, including arson attacks on a Warsaw shopping mall, a German arms factory, and a Ukrainian-owned logistics firm in London.
These incidents have raised concerns among European intelligence services, with German intelligence predicting that Russia may be ready to launch an armed attack on NATO by the end of the decade. In response to these concerns, the EU has mustered substantial financial aid for Ukraine; however, it has taken limited steps to bolster its own defense capabilities.
Kubilius’ Plea for Enhanced European Defense
Kubilius’ query about the EU’s capacity to enhance its defense has sparked a continent-wide debate, particularly in light of Russia’s aggression. Despite ample financial support for Ukraine, the EU has failed to invest significantly in its own defense or develop meaningful defense capabilities. With defense spending at historically low levels, the EU is heavily reliant on the United States and Asia for defense equipment, ultimately sending jobs and investment abroad.
A New Era of EU Defense Cooperation?
Born out of a Franco-German industrial partnership aimed at maintaining peace in Europe, the EU has traditionally been hesitant to engage in defense preparation. However, attitudes began to shift following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting the EU to set aside modest funds to encourage continent-wide collaboration on arms and ammunition production. A recent Eurobarometer survey revealed that 77% of EU citizens support the development of a common defense policy, with 71% advocating for increased production of military equipment.
The EU’s Plan for Enhanced Defense Cooperation
A plan pending in the European Parliament proposes allocating €1.5 billion for increased cooperation in defense production. This plan is part of a broader initiative to enhance the EU’s defense capabilities, with the proposed establishment of a common defense policy and the allocation of resources for military equipment production. However, critics argue that this effort may be insufficient, citing estimates that Europe needs to spend €100 billion annually to provide adequate collective defense.
Enter The New Defense Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius
Kubilius’ three-hour confirmation hearing offered a window into the evolving European debate on defense strategy and potential next steps. The commissioner-designate answered questions from lawmakers across the continent and the political spectrum, facing concerns about the EU’s ability to build a common defense. Kubilius expressed confidence in the EU’s ability to develop a robust defense policy, stating that the next seven-year EU budget will include an unprecedented sum for defense, possibly as much as €500 billion.
Navigating the Complexities of EU Defense Spending
When asked about funding for defense initiatives, Kubilius declined to provide a concrete answer, stating that "if there is a will, there is a way." This response has raised concerns about the EU’s ability to secure funding for its defense initiatives, particularly in light of the significant investment required. Various proposals have been floated, including diverting existing spending to defense procurement, launching a massive new spending program, or issuing a dedicated bond to pay for weapons production and defense preparedness.
The Path Forward for EU Defense
The question of how to secure funding for EU defense initiatives remains a pressing concern. As Kubilius begins his tenure, he faces the daunting task of navigating the complexities of EU defense spending and developing a comprehensive strategy to address the continent’s security threats. With intelligence assessments indicating a heightened risk of Russian aggression, the EU must find a way to transition from talk to action and invest meaningfully in its defense capabilities.
