It is a document. The Nationwide Rally comes out effectively forward of the European elections in France, with a rating of 31.5%, in keeping with our Ipsos estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24/RFI, Public Senate/LCP-AN. The polls didn’t contradict the polls regarding the rating of the checklist led by Jordan Bardella.
The RN not solely wins the election, but it surely additionally locations the checklist of the presidential majority far behind (15.2% for Valérie Hayer), greater than 16 factors behind, a critical failure for Emmanuel Macron. The RN’s rating is much more than double that of the bulk…
Mocked by his opponents for his selfies on TikTok, with a smile on his face, he knew easy methods to roughly skillfully keep away from pitfalls and missteps. Stating his shortcomings or his absenteeism within the European Parliament, the opposite lists nevertheless didn’t achieve actually placing him in issue, throughout the quite a few debates, nor in slowing down his rise.
If it’s a mid-term election, the place voters additionally wished to ship a message of discontent to the ability in place, the RN will search to present a nationwide scope to this European election, and to make this outcome the primary march in the direction of the 2027 presidential election.
Finest rating ever achieved by the far-right social gathering in a nationwide election
The RN usually occupies the primary locations. However this night, a brand new stage has been reached. With this rating, Jordan Bardella’s checklist beats all Nationwide Rally data. That is fairly merely the most effective rating ever achieved by the far-right social gathering in a nationwide election (excluding the second spherical of the presidential election). That is greater than throughout the Europeans of 2019 (23.34%), 2014 (24.86%), 2009 (6.34%) and 1999 (5.70%).
That is additionally greater than throughout the first rounds of the 2022 presidential elections, the place Marine Le Pen obtained 23.15%, 2017 (21.30%), 2012 (17.90%), 2007 (10.44%), 2002 (16.86%) and 1995 (15%).
That is much more than throughout the legislative elections of 2022 (17.30%), 2017 (8.75%), 2012 (13.60%), 2007 (4.29%), 2002 (15.70%), 1997 (14.94%), 1993 (12.48%) or 1988 (9.66%).
Similar with the regional elections of 2021 (19.34% throughout the complete territory), that of 2015 (27.73%), 2010 (11.42%) or 2004 (14.70%), and greater than the scores of the 2021 departmental elections (17.89% on common), 2015 (25.24%), the cantonal elections of 2008 (4.85%) or these of 2001 (6.94%).
A very good rating within the European elections isn’t essentially synonymous with success within the presidential election
Nonetheless, European elections will not be, basically, prescriptive of what occurs subsequent. In different phrases, rating within the European elections isn’t essentially synonymous with success within the presidential election, the place mobilization and the stability of energy are completely different. However for the intense proper as an entire (Marion Maréchal achieves 5.5%, or almost 40% for the intense proper), these outcomes nevertheless present that this present is right this moment deeply established within the nation, making it attainable to arouse all hopes for the RN.