Morocco’s economy
Morocco plans to import another 1.5 million tons of soft wheat between March and May
Morocco has become the largest port for exporting European Union wheat for the 2022-2023 season, following sales to other outlets were disrupted by renewed competition for Black Sea exports as the war subsided.
In a year that saw Russia invade Ukraine, which is also a big exporter of grain, the European Union ramped up sales at the start of an export drive in July and June as importers sought alternatives to Black Sea grain.
With the need for imports intensifying following a harvest hit by last year’s drought, Morocco has become a larger than usual outlet for EU wheat, taking Algeria’s place as the bloc’s biggest export destination.
Morocco plans to import another 1.5 million tonnes of soft wheat between March and May, and importers are expected to turn to EU supplies given the logistical and financial risks to grain from Ukraine and Russia, said Yann Lebeau of French grain maker Interserial.
Steady demand from Morocco and large sales to Algeria, China and Egypt helped France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, sell most of the export surplus to non-EU countries estimated at just over 10 million tonnes.
“The French market did better by selling a lot earlier in the season,” said one trader.
The Black Sea rivalry has returned to the fore since mid-season following a wartime Black Sea corridor boosted Ukrainian shipments and Russia found outlets for its record crop in 2022.
Dwindling export prospects pushed wheat futures prices in Europe and the United States to their lowest since 2021 this week.
“The inability of Europe and the United States to sell their old crop has worsened,” said Michael Magdovitz, an analyst at Rabobank Group.
After expecting record exports to the European Union of soft wheat amounting to 40 million tons in the 2022-2023 season at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission lowered its expectations to 32 million, and there are other expectations indicating that it may reach regarding 30 million.
But there are traders who are not ruling out a late-season surge in EU exports as doubts persist over Black Sea supplies, with Russia committed to continuing the corridor deal only until mid-May and looking for ways to boost prices for its agricultural exports.