2024-02-10 19:30:00
Thanks to European monetary policy remaining stable, banks did not need to increase their lending rates too sharply at the end of last year, their profitability having been improved. This benefited credit activity.
Levels observed in spring 2009
After two years of uninterrupted progression, the average credit rate stood at 4.20% in the 4th quarter of 2024, returning to its level in spring 2009 (4.16% in the 2nd quarter of 2009).
The increase in the average rate of 1.89 points over the year 2023 nevertheless remains well below that of the usury rate, of 3.06 points for loans over 20 years.
“Indeed, for the first time since July 2022, the main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) remained stable, and the average rate of return on household deposits [livrets d’épargne, livret A…, NDLR] only weakly believed, underlines the Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory. The profitability of new credits granted was able to increase and allow banks to “margin” without having to increase the rates of credits granted too quickly. »
The 4.20% barrier crossed for many borrowers
While the increase in credit rates was rapid until October (+0.18 points per month on average), it slowed down in November with +0.09 points and in December with +0.02 points.
In December, the average credit rate rose to 4.24%, all loan terms combined, compared to 2.35% in December 2022 and 1.11% in December 2019, according to the Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory.
For 15-year loans, it stood at 4.11% in December, 4.26% over 20 years and 4.35% over 25 years. For three-quarters of borrowers, the 4.20% barrier is clearly crossed, even over terms of 15 years.
The average loan duration has stabilized
In the 4th quarter of 2023, loans were granted for an average duration of 248 months (20 years and 8 months). “A level rarely observed in the past (13.6 years in 2001 and 17.1 years in 2014),” notes the Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory.
But it has been almost stable since last spring. “Which no longer makes it possible to cushion the rate increases for the year 2023. These reduced the borrowing capacity of households by 16.7%: a household which might borrow €100,000 at the end of 2022 can only borrow €83,200 in December 2023,” he gives as an example.
“The recovery will be slow and hesitant”
Loan production fell by 41.7% over the year 2023. But it only fell by 30.6% in the 4th quarter of 2023 (compared to 46.1% in the 1st half) and the number of loans by 19 .5%.
“But the recovery will be slow and hesitant, as access to credit has not been eased by the Banque de France,” indicates the Observatoire Crédit Logement/CSA.
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