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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) European stock markets begin the month of November with a plus sign, defying the red closings of Wall Street and Tokyo (-2.6%), dragged down above all by technology stocks. The Nasdaq in fact suffered a decline of 2.76%, affected by the declines of Meta (-4.1%) and Microsoft (-6%) after the quarterly reports considered disappointing. Even the Chinese stock markets, after trying to rise driven by better-than-expected data on the manufacturing sector (Caixin China Manufacturing at 50.3 points in October, against expectations for 49.7 points), closed lower. However, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, the standing commission of the Chinese National People’s Congress is expected to announce a government bond issue for CNY 6,000 billion over three years, aimed at swapping local public debt. Additionally, another CNY4 trillion of special issuances of local government bonds over five years could be earmarked for housing or land buybacks. European indices are encouraged by better than expected accounts released overnight by the giants Amazon and Apple. Accounts that are also supporting American futures, in positive territory, although Apple’s shares are weak in the After Hours. Investors, however, are cautious inwaiting for the publication of the report on the US labor marketwhich takes on particular importance a few days before the American elections, scheduled for November 5th. The polls, meanwhile, indicate a head-to-head for the two candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Milano recorded an increase of around 0.3%, in line with the other stock markets of the Old Continent, with the exception of Paris which increased to 0.5-0.6%. The spread Italian stands at 127 points (from 129 the day before) the ten-year government bond yield to 3.67% (from 3.7%).
The spotlight is on US employment data and the launch of Apple and Amazon shares
Overseas, the spotlight will be on the jobs report and the performance of Amazon and Apple stocks, which published their third quarter numbers yesterday after the markets were closed. Both companies surprised analysts with better-than-expected figures. In detail, Amazon, thanks to the growth of the cloud and advertising sector, recorded a profit per share of 1.43 dollars, against a consensus of 1.14 dollars, on revenues of 158.88 billion dollars, against 157.2 billions of expectations. For the current quarter, Amazon expects revenues between 181.5 and 188.5 billion dollars, for a growth in one year between 7% and 11%, against the 186.2 billion of the consensus. In the after-hours, Amazon shares rose by more than 5%. As for Apple, the group, in its fiscal fourth quarter, achieved earnings per share of $1.64 on revenues of $94.93 billion, against expectations for $1.60 on $94.58 billion. The only negative note was Chinese revenues, which decreased by 0.3% to 15.03 billion. iPhone sales went well, with revenues rising by 6% to 94.93 billion, against the consensus of 94.58 billion. On the other hand, revenues for Mac, iPad and other products and services were lower than expected. Gross margin was 46.2%, versus the consensus of 46%. Adjusted earnings per share grew 12% compared to a year earlier. For the full fiscal year, revenue increased about 2% to $391.04 billion; quarterly revenue increased 6%. In the after-hours, however, shares retreated by about 1%. As for the workplace relationship, iThe consensus of analysts predicts the creation of around 140 thousand jobs in October (+254 thousand in September), with an average hourly wage increasing by 0.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to be in line with that of September at 4.1%. In the States, the ISM manufacturing index for October will also be under the microscope, expected to rise slightly.
Oil companies do well in Piazza Affari, St. slips
Shares in the oil sector are well positioned on Piazza Affari, benefiting from the trend in oil prices. Eni rises almost 1% e Saipem almost 2%. The banks are well set up and Intesa Sanpaolo profits around 1%, in the aftermath of the quarterly report, archived with a net profit rising by +26.4% to 2.4 billion. The institute also announced the upward revision of the estimate of the net result for 2025 to around 9 billion euros, as well as promising a “significant” buyback. Fitch has upgraded the outlook on the long-term rating from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’ and confirmed the long-term IDR at ‘BBB and viability rating at BBB. The rating agency, among other things, also improved its rating on the long-term issuer default of Unicredit and the senior preferred rating at BBB+, in addition to the stable to positive outlook. The upward march continues Stellarafter the good performance the day before, the day on which the group released its quarterly report. On the other hand, they slideStmicroelectronics in the wake of the decline recorded in After Hours by Apple, despite the Cupertino group’s accounts beating expectations.
Crude oil rises while awaiting OPEC+ moves, euro-dollar stable
The price of crude oil is rising, supported by expectations that OPEC+ may delay the planned December increase in production by a month or more. Furthermore, tension remains high in the Middle East: Israeli intelligence reports that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the next few days, perhaps before the US presidential elections on 5 November. As the WTI in December up 2% to 70.65 dollars a barrel and January Brent up 1.9% to 74.19 dollars. THE’oro it rose slightly to 2,755 dollars per ounce, after October which was the fourth positive month in a row (+4%). Finally, natural gas traded in Amsterdam lost 4.4% to 38.8 euros per megawatt hour. On the currency theeuro/dollar it is stable at 1.087: October was the best month since May for the greenback (+2.5%).
Well, well, well! Here we are at the start of November, and the European stock markets are kicking off with a little “plus” sign! It’s like they walked into a party that Wall Street and Tokyo just left, looking a little worse for wear after downing a few too many tech cocktails. I mean, have you seen the Nasdaq? Dropped like it just found out the election isn’t rigged! A fantastic 2.76% down, thanks to Meta and Microsoft—those poor blokes sank like a lead balloon after their quarterly reports. Bit like showing up to a fancy dinner and forgetting the main course, eh?
Now, over in China, things got a bit bumpy too. They thought they were steering the ship up with some manufacturing numbers, but nope! Closed lower—it’s like ordering a spicy curry and getting a bowl of plain rice instead. And then there’s Bank of America Securities shining some light, suggesting the Chinese National People’s Congress might throw in a government bond issue worth CNY 6,000 billion. With all this swapping of local public debt, it sounds more like a game of Monopoly than a serious economic maneuver. “I’ll trade you Park Place for Boardwalk!” Can someone pass the bankruptcy papers, please?
Meanwhile, back in Europe, the indices decided to have a feel-good moment—Milano up about 0.3%, Paris strutting around at 0.5-0.6%. It’s like the European markets took some happy pills while eyeing those better-than-expected quarterly results from Amazon and Apple. Yes, the giants are back! Despite what their After Hours traded shares might suggest, both companies managed to impress the analysts officially. Amazon’s profits were like that well-hidden treasure—very much alive! And did I mention, their shares shot up like a rocket, climbing over 5%? Boom!
Apple, on the other hand, had a few ups and downs. Their earnings per share were a touch above estimates, but then there’s the report out of China, which sounds an awful lot like bad news written by your ex! “We’ll miss you,” said Apple, as revenues dropped by 0.3%. But don’t worry, folks! The iPhone is still selling like hot cakes, with a 6% revenue increase—so take that, critics! They might slide a little after-hours, but that’s just them exercising their right to do the cha-cha!
Over in the oil sector, things are looking rosy—at least in Piazza Affari! Oil shares frolicking around like they just got the best seat at the pub as crude prices tick upwards. Meanwhile, Intesa Sanpaolo threw a party with money coming in like it was the jackpot! A 26.4% rise in net profit! If that doesn’t deserve a round of applause, I don’t know what does!
Now, let’s not forget the high-tension drama around crude oil as we await OPEC+’s next move. It’s like trying to guess what your GPS is going to say next: “Recalculating…” The WTI is up 2%, while Brent is up 1.9%. So if anyone’s looking for an investment tip, just look to the east; there’s always oil and a sprinkle of chaos flying around! And can you believe it? They’ve got natural gas making a dip—down 4.4%! That’s a bit of blowing cold air on everyone’s enthusiasm, isn’t it?
As we wrap this all up, it’s clear that markets fluctuate—nobody’s getting rich watching paint dry, after all! In the meantime, tuck in for that US jobs report, because if history tells us anything, it’s that the job market dances to its own peculiar tune. Get ready for November 5th! It’s not just an election; it’s the biggest reality show since the last Big Brother edition!
European stock markets have kicked off November on a positive note, despite experiencing a downturn in both Wall Street and Tokyo, where the latter saw a significant drop of 2.6%. This decline was primarily fueled by the struggles of technology stocks, most notably the Nasdaq, which plummeted by 2.76% following disappointing quarterly results from tech giants Meta and Microsoft, which reported declines of 4.1% and 6%, respectively. In Asia, Chinese stock markets initially rallied on encouraging data regarding the manufacturing sector, as reflected in the Caixin Manufacturing index, which scored 50.3 points in October, surpassing the anticipated 49.7 points. However, they ultimately closed lower amid ongoing concerns. Adding to this narrative, analysts at Bank of America Securities predict that the standing committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress is poised to announce a substantial government bond issuance totaling CNY 6,000 billion over three years, aimed at restructuring local public debt. Additionally, there could be CNY 4 trillion allocated for special issuances of local government bonds over five years, with a focus on housing and land buybacks.
European indices have been buoyed by better-than-expected earnings reports released overnight from e-commerce titan Amazon and technology leader Apple. These positive results are also lending support to American futures, which are currently trading in positive territory, although Apple shares have shown weakness in after-hours trading. Investors remain cautious as they await the upcoming US labor market report, which is particularly significant in the lead-up to the American elections scheduled for November 5th. Polls suggest a tightly contested race between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
The Italian stock market, known as Piazza Affari, recorded an increase of approximately 0.3%, mirroring the upward trend seen across most of the Old Continent’s stock markets, with Paris experiencing a slightly higher rise of 0.5-0.6%. The Italian spread narrowed to 127 points, down from 129 points the previous day, while the yield on the ten-year government bond fell to 3.67%, down from 3.7%.
Overseas, the focus is sharply center on the jobs report and the performances of Amazon and Apple stocks after both companies released their third-quarter earnings figures yesterday, after the market closed. Amazon’s earnings surpassed analyst expectations, posting a profit per share of $1.43 compared to the consensus estimate of $1.14, alongside revenues of $158.88 billion against expectations of $157.2 billion. For the current quarter, Amazon projects revenues ranging between $181.5 and $188.5 billion, forecasting year-over-year growth of 7% to 11%. In the after-hours market, Amazon shares rose by over 5%. Apple also reported robust earnings in its fiscal fourth quarter, achieving earnings per share of $1.64 on revenues of $94.93 billion, exceeding expectations of $1.60 on $94.58 billion. However, it faced a slight setback with Chinese revenues declining by 0.3%.
Meanwhile, the consensus among analysts anticipates the creation of approximately 140,000 jobs in October, a decrease from 254,000 in September, with average hourly wages expected to rise by 0.3%. The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.1%. Furthermore, the ISM manufacturing index for October is also expected to show a slight increase.
In Piazza Affari, shares in the oil sector performed well, buoyed by rising oil prices. Eni saw an uptick of nearly 1%, while Saipem surged almost 2%. The banking sector is also showing strength, with Intesa Sanpaolo benefiting from its quarterly report, which revealed a net profit surge of 26.4% to €2.4 billion. The bank has also revised its net result estimate for 2025 upward to approximately €9 billion and has indicated plans for a significant share buyback. Fitch has positively adjusted the outlook for Intesa Sanpaolo from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’ and confirmed its long-term IDR at ‘BBB’ along with its viability rating.
The upward momentum continues for Stellantis following a successful prior trading session marked by the release of its quarterly report. Conversely, shares of STMicroelectronics faced a decline, affected by the drop in Apple’s shares during after-hours trading, despite Apple’s earnings beating expectations.
Crude oil prices have risen, supported by speculation that OPEC+ may postpone the planned increase in production due in December. Additionally, geopolitical tensions remain heightened in the Middle East, as Israeli intelligence warns of a potential Iranian attack from Iraqi territory, possibly looming before the US presidential elections on November 5th. As for oil prices, December WTI rose by 2% to $70.65 per barrel, with January Brent rising 1.9% to $74.19. Gold prices saw a slight increase to $2,755 per ounce after experiencing a positive October that marked the fourth consecutive month of gains (+4%). Lastly, natural gas traded in Amsterdam lost 4.4%, settling at €38.8 per megawatt hour. The euro-dollar exchange rate remains stable at 1.087, marking October as the best month for the dollar since May, with an increase of 2.5%.
N the oil sector are experiencing positive momentum, aligning with the rise in crude prices. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is reportedly up by 2%, reaching around $70.65 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 1.9% at approximately $74.19. This escalation can be attributed to speculation regarding OPEC+ potentially delaying its planned production increases amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran’s alleged preparations for military action in the Middle East.
The recent favorable performance of oil stocks appears to be fueling investor optimism, contributing to the mild gains observed in European markets. For instance, Intesa Sanpaolo reported a staggering 26.4% increase in net profit, which has added an upbeat vibe to Piazza Affari, where the Italian stock market climbed about 0.3%.
As we continue monitoring the markets, the upcoming US jobs report is anticipated to significantly impact sentiment, especially considering the crucial context of the forthcoming elections on November 5th. Investors are particularly eager to see how job creation and wage growth data align with market expectations, especially given the complexities introduced by fluctuating tech stocks and global economic indicators.
while indicators show Europe’s stock indices and oil prices taking a positive turn, the market remains susceptible to the underlying tensions in the global economy and the political landscape as November unfolds.
