The price of gas continues to soar. The MWh delivered to Rotterdam soared by 14% on Monday to end the session at 276.75 euros, a historic record at the close. Gas is 15 times more expensive than its average over the last decade. At comparable energy density, it is as if a barrel of oil cost 500 dollars.
The surge in prices is directly linked to Gazprom announcements last Friday . The Russian giant has warned that deliveries of Russian gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline will be interrupted from August 31 to September 2 to carry out “maintenance” work.
Recovery in question
A few days of interruption are not likely to fundamentally change the situation, but “the big question for the market is whether deliveries will resume following this period”, warn experts from ING bank. Gazprom has announced that they will return to 20% of the gas pipeline’s capacity, that is to say at the current level.
But the return of gas flows is anything but certain. Russia might “wrongly claim that it cannot reopen the gas pipeline”, or close its other pipes to Europe, details Ludwig Möhring, director of the Association of German Oil, Gas and Geothermal Producers (BVEG). ) quoted by AFP.
“The disaster is already here, alert to Bloomberg Thierry Bros, energy professor at Sciences Po. I think the big question is when European leaders will wake up. »
The rise in gas prices has cascading consequences, particularly on electricity. The price of electrons has also started to rise once more. The European electricity index has thus crossed the bar of 700 euros per MWh once morest around 50 euros on average over the past twenty years.
Destruction of request
European market operators are increasingly nervous as the heating season approaches. “Given the low availability of gas, prices will have to remain high long enough for us to begin to observe a necessary destruction of demand”, we analyze at ING.
This phenomenon is already striking in the industry. Energy prices are prohibitive for many energy-intensive zinc and aluminum producers. Nyrstar will put its zinc plant in the Netherlands into maintenance on 1is september and Slovalco getting ready to quit all of its aluminum production activity in Slovakia.
Higher gas prices are having a recessive effect on the European economy. The Bundesbank thus considers that a recession in Germany is more and more likely. Globally, the oil market anticipates a contraction in the economy. This is the reason why the barrel of crude lost up to 4% on Monday, around $90 .
