He had never tested so high in the polls. Essayist Raphaël Glucksmann, head of the Socialist Party list for the European elections, achieves an unprecedented breakthrough in our exclusive Harris Interactive investigation. Credited with 13% of voting intentions, up two points compared to January, the socialist MEP is making a hole on the left where he is five points ahead of the head of the LFI list Manon Aubry (8%) and six points ahead of the LFI list head. ecologist Marie Toussaint (7%). And he can now hope to join in the announced duel between the National Rally and the majority, whose head of list Valérie Hayer falls by one point to 18% of voting intentions, stuck twelve points behind Jordan Bardella (30%).
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With his anti-totalitarian positions and his commitment to Ukraine, the social-democrat essayist appeals to both the ranks of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters in 2022 (29%) and those of Yannick Jadot (21%) and bites on the Emmanuel Macron’s electorate in the last presidential election (10%) while keeping its 2019 base intact, since 81% of voters seduced five years ago would once more consider slipping a Glucksmann ballot into the ballot box on June 9 .
At the crossroads of French expectations
Still in the early stages of his campaign, the new darling of the left, who will be meeting in Tournefeuille, near Toulouse, Sunday March 24alongside the first secretary of the Socialist Party Olivier Faure, will she be able to resurrect a moribund Socialist Party following the catastrophic score of its candidate, Anne Hidalgo, in the 2022 presidential election (1.7%)?
With 13% of voting intentions, the essayist is already very close to the score of Yannick Jadot in 2019 who had achieved the best performance of the Europeans on the left, with 13.48% of the votes, in a ballot traditionally favorable to environmentalists.
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Among the reasons for this start of “Glucksmannia”: a candidacy at the crossroads of French expectations, since the head of the PS-PP list satisfies four of the five major concerns of the French: purchasing power, a priority for 46% of voters potential of Raphaël Glucksmann, health (35%), the environment (41%) and the war in Ukraine (38%). Concerning the latter, the strategy of the majority, which has chosen to invest the international terrain in all directions, to contain Glucksmann’s surge is proving ineffective for the moment.
A royal blind spot
Main weak point of the Glucksmann candidacy: its regal blind spot. Terrorism, immigration, insecurity… The head of the socialist list seems to put off voters waiting for security responses, at a time when the European continent is being riddled with identity tensions.
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Among Raphaël Glucksmann’s potential voters, only 14% place immigration control among their priorities, 11% the security of property and people and 12% the fight once morest terrorism. Much more than Valérie Hayer, the head of the socialist list thus appears as the perfect “negative” of Jordan Bardella, whose voters place immigration control (69%), security (37%) and the fight once morest terrorism (33%) at the top of their concerns. A symmetry that seems to have identified the two heads of the list, who will meet for a debate on April 12 on France Inter. And better take on the head of the Macronist list…
Methodology: Survey carried out online from March 15 to 18, 2024. Sample of 2,382 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, including 2,124 people registered on the French electoral lists. Quota method and adjustment applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region and previous electoral behavior of the interviewee.
