Brussels.-More than 20 years after negotiations began between Mercosur and the European Union for an association agreement with an important trade chapter, in the next two months a window of opportunity opens that the European Commission wants to take advantage of even if it has to bear the burden. refusal from several Member States of the European Union, including France.
Traditionally, the French have ordered the brakes every time Brussels gets closer to the agreement with Mercosur. When a political agreement was reached in June 2019 after days of intense negotiations in Brussels, the paper was put on hold. France did not want to. Behind France were Belgium, Austria, Ireland, Poland, the Netherlands and the German environmentalists, now in the German government.
There were doubts as to whether these countries would add up to the minority necessary to block the pact if the European Commission took it to a vote of the Trade Ministers, but Brussels never wanted to tighten the rope so much. So when Paris ordered to stop, it stopped. That’s what changed now.
Several sources in Brussels and in capitals such as Madrid and Paris confirm that, contrary to the opinion of the French government, the European Commission is now willing to go to the end. The French political weakness right now, together with the fact that the European Commission has just renewed its mandate and its president Úrsula Von der Leyen is no longer so dependent on the capitals, changed the balance of power. Paris fears it will not be able to reach that blocking minority.
The idea of the European Commission is to reach an agreement with Mercosur that can be announced at the November G20 summit in Brazil, in mid-November. Shortly thereafter, probably at the beginning of the year, the Commission would take the agreed text to the bloc’s trade ministers. For it to move forward, the affirmative vote of at least 15 of the 27 countries is required and those 15 represent at least 65% of the bloc’s population.
Does Paris have the numbers? Does it add up to 36% of the bloc’s population with its allies or, if they do not reach that percentage, at least 13 of the 27 countries. It seems very doubtful right now, especially since the conservatives, generally favorable to the agreement, already have heads of government in 11 countries of the bloc. If it is added to the liberals, they exceed 15. And even some left-wing governments, such as the Spanish and German ones, will vote in favor.
It was never clear that Paris could forge an alliance large enough to block him in a vote, but it was never attempted. That is what the European Commission wants to change now. If President Von der Leyen decides to twist the arm of French President Emmanuel Macron, a bet she has never made before and that can lead to a clash with Paris.
If this obstacle is overcome, the text would pass from the Trade Ministers to the European Parliament. The last time MEPs voted on a resolution on this matter, it emerged that they would reject the agreement as it was then drafted. But it is assumed that in the current negotiations there will be enough changes to convince a part of those who refused then to accept it now.
If ratified by the European Parliament, the agreement will enter into force provisionally until it is ratified by all 27 Member States, each according to their respective constitutional requirements. But it will already be up and running and in application in the 27.
The meetings between the European negotiators and those of Mercosur continue this week in Brasilia and the Europeans have the order to force the machine to reach the G20 in Rio de Janeiro with the agreement closed, in mid-November. And not listening to the noise that comes from Paris.
The trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur would be the largest on the planet. The countries involved account for more than a fifth of the world’s GDP and more than 800 million inhabitants. Clarín.
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