EU, von der Leyen trembles over Parliament vote with slim majority –

The President of the European Fee, Ursula von der Leyen, having acquired the blessing of the European Council – with the opposition of the Prime Ministers of Italy and Hungary, Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orban – should now win that of the European Parliament. And it’ll not be a straightforward recreation. The D-Day of the vote is July 18, within the first plenary session of this legislature in Strasbourg. On the sixteenth, the presidency of the European Parliament can be voted on. The place to begin stays what known as the ‘platform’ of the Widespread, Socialists and Liberals. Calculator in hand, there are 188 votes from the EPP; 136 from the S&D and 75 from Renew. In complete 399 out of 720. Absolutely the majority required is 361. The 38 vote margin will not be sufficient to face the take a look at of the key poll with serenity. The outgoing Parliament closes with an ‘Ursula majority’ of 417 seats. And those that attempt to make predictions, take note of a proportion of snipers of 10-15%: in absolute values, about fifty votes are at stake. On the EPP congress in Bucharest, von der Leyen was nominated spitzenkandidat with a proportion of snipers of 18%. The French delegation of the Republicans (six seats) and the Slovenian delegation of the previous Prime Minister, Janez Jansa, (4 seats) have already introduced their vote towards. 5 years in the past, the German chief obtained approval with a margin of simply 9 votes, thanks amongst different issues to the help of the delegation of the 5 Star Motion (14 seats then, now 8) and the Polish PiS of the previous Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, now definitely towards (25 seats in 2019, now 20).

These are intense days of confrontation for von der Leyen. He’s now each day within the corridors of Parliament: he has already met the presidencies of S & D and Renew. On July 4th he’ll take part in a gathering with all of the group presidencies. He already has an appointment with the Greens on his agenda and will definitely converse with the Left group. “I’ll go to everybody who invitations me,” he assured. Within the final legislature he didn’t solely converse with the Identification and Democracy group (which incorporates the League and the French Nationwide Rassemblement). The target of the president who aspires to in her second time period is “to construct a big majority for a robust Europe” and to take action she goals to persuade parliamentarians one after the other. «I’ll focus on with particular person MEPs and with nationwide delegations, as a result of the vote usually takes place based mostly on the nation they belong to». So, to make a speculation, von der Leyen might take care of the delegation of the Brothers of Italy (24 deputies) and never with that of the Pis, even when each have their residence within the conservative Ecr group.

Within the final legislature they voted according to the Ursula majority 80% of the time. Nonetheless, the president of the EPP group, Manfred Weber (who can be president of the get together), continues to accuse them of being “not very dependable” as a result of for instance they voted towards the reform of the Stability Pact and towards the Pact for Migration and Asylum. They reply that reliability is assured by coming into the bulk. In any case, these dossiers had been authorised – albeit with some distinctions – by Fratelli d’Italia. A big a part of the Widespread Social gathering would like to have the ability to rely on the exterior help of Fratelli d’Italia and part of the Conservatives as a substitute of welcoming the Greens into the Ursula majority as a result of at that time the EPP would find yourself in a minority particularly on the subject of the problems of the Inexperienced Deal: the bulk enlarged to the Greens would have 453 seats of which ‘solely’ 188 can be Widespread Social gathering. Neither possibility is risk-free: the Greens will ask to not backtrack on local weather insurance policies and this might create friction with the EPP, whereas the ultraconservatives with whom Meloni shares the group are a pink line for socialists and liberals. To persuade Meloni, von der Leyen might placed on the desk – in a totally casual approach in order to not open the door to requests from different nations – the provide of a vice-presidency or a outstanding commissioner within the subsequent staff of the Faculty, according to Italy’s position. As soon as confirmed, von der Leyen should formally begin negotiations to kind her new staff. If von der Leyen doesn’t overcome the Strasbourg wall, an unprecedented institutional disaster would open up. Her candidacy would lapse and the leaders of the European Council must meet once more inside a month, in the midst of summer season, to suggest one other candidate.