EU, von der Leyen desperately seeks votes. Will she bow to the Greens’ diktats? –

The hunt for votes has officially begun: Ursula von der Leyen must gather consensus to obtain confirmation from the European Parliament – on July 18 in Strasbourg – for her nomination for a second term at the helm of the European Commission. The 399 seats currently guaranteed by Ursula’s majority (EPP, S&D and liberals) are sufficient only on paper. In reality, at least another forty to fifty would be needed to cover any snipers or last-minute absentees. This is why the German leader is trying to broaden her majority.

The first official meeting for this purpose was held in the afternoon at the Berlaymont building. The co-presidents of the Green group, Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout, showed up at her, flaunting their willingness to expand the current majority since the night of June 9. They bring 54 seats but ask in exchange not to backtrack on the Green Deal (as part of the EPP would like) and not to open the doors to the ECR (as part of the EPP would like). “We had a very constructive meeting in which we discussed the search for a stable and democratic majority in the European Parliament. However, we also made it clear that the Greens/EFA will not be part of a majority that negotiates or relies on the far right, including the ECR,” Eickhout made clear at the end of the meeting. “The EU needs a reliable majority that can address the many challenges it faces, guarantee the continuation of the Green Deal and ensure that industries within the EU are global leaders in the green transition,” Reintke summarized. The reference to European industry should be considered an opening to compromise towards an ecological transition that also takes into account the economic effects on manufacturing, primarily German manufacturing (in response to that part of the EPP that would not like to have them as allies).

In her hunt for votes, Von der Leyen is not dealing with a linear system: every new vote won somewhere risks losing someone else. The Greens are asking her not to consider the ECR, but a segment of the EPP (see Forza Italia) is asking her not to look at the Greens. This is also why the intention of the leader of the European executive is to convince every MEP and to focus on the national delegations rather than the groups. It is much more likely, for example, to obtain the votes of only a part of the ECR, such as that of the Czechs of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s party (ODS, three seats) or the 24 of the Fratelli d’Italia delegation. Formal support from the ECR is essentially impossible, because it risks undermining the entire current Ursula majority. Furthermore, the position of the groups is not yet entirely clear. In particular on the right: ID and ECR have not yet held their constituent meeting. They have been postponed while waiting to see what will happen with the new groups and what winds the French runoff will bring. A novelty that has effects on both Id and Ecr is the announcement of the birth of the group of “Patriots for Europe” wanted by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, and by the leaders of the Austrian Fpo and the Czech ANO 2011. Today the Portuguese party Chega also joined, bringing the number of members to 27 and the number of States to four. Three more countries are needed to make the new formation official.