Government spending cuts across the European Union are poised to significantly impact investment and economic growth, especially as the region grapples with mounting challenges in maintaining competitiveness against the United States, leading economists caution.
Following years of fiscal leniency during the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis ignited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brussels has reintroduced stringent fiscal rules mandating that EU member states constrain their budget deficits to no more than 3 percent of GDP. This initiative aims to eventually reduce government debt to a more manageable level of 60 percent of GDP.
However, such fiscal restraint comes at a critical juncture, as Germany, Europe’s largest economy and engine for growth, faces serious threats to its export-driven business model. The need for increased investment throughout the bloc has never been more urgent.
Adding to the economic uncertainty, Donald Trump’s emphatic electoral victory — and his proposed imposition of 10-20 percent tariffs on European manufacturers — has intensified fears regarding the long-term growth potential across the continent.
Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of the think tank Bruegel, underscored the difficulties ahead. “I don’t think we will get the investment we need and that’s bad,” he remarked. “We can’t have effective implementation of the [EU’s] fiscal framework, a substantial increase in public investment and no new EU-level funding at the same time.”
Filippo Taddei, senior European economist at Goldman Sachs, criticized the current consolidation efforts, asserting that they would not bridge the substantial investment gap that exists between the United States and the European economy.
The investment bank projected that these consolidation measures would adversely affect Eurozone growth by approximately 0.35 percentage points annually for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027.
In an assessment released last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth forecast for the Eurozone to 1.2 percent for the upcoming year, anticipating that the reintroduced fiscal rules will increase strain on the economy and contribute to a 0.1 percentage point reduction in yearly GDP growth.
In contrast, the U.S. economy is on track to expand by 2.2 percent during the same timeframe, with American policymakers likely to uphold a more aggressive fiscal policy stance.
The Congressional Budget Office projected a 6.5 percent deficit for 2025 and 6 percent for 2026 prior to Trump’s election victory, indicating a complicated fiscal future for the United States.
Many economists speculate that the president-elect’s intentions to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent will elevate the deficit by several percentage points while temporarily boosting demand.
Trump professes that he aims to reduce the deficit through aggressive limits on government expenditures, placing Tesla’s founder Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in charge of identifying significant cuts.
According to a report earlier this year by former European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi, the EU is estimated to require an annual influx of €800 billion in public and private investments to counter challenges that threaten its long-term economic viability.
While private investment is forecasted to play a substantial role, experts advocate for the necessity of robust public investment as well.
Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute think-tank, cautioned, “There’s a tightening bias for fiscal policy over several years. You’re very unlikely to be increasing public investments in that environment.”
Europe grapples with extensive long-term challenges, including an aging population that threatens to diminish its labor force, the imperative to address climate change, and the urgency to enhance its defense capabilities.
Trump’s anticipated return to the presidency next year has already prompted a reevaluation of security expenditure, leading to potential shifts in Brussels that could divert tens of billions of euros from its common budget.
Calls for a radical rethinking on stimulus policies have grown louder among economists. Posen remarked that the absence of even a “aspirational” debate regarding increased investment was “incredibly shortsighted,” especially given the enormity of the need—one that is poised to grow even more pressing.
Moreover, economists recognize that governments worldwide must tackle their swelling deficits. Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been a significant accumulation of sovereign debt. The IMF recently reported that global public debt has surged to $100 trillion and is expected to escalate further in the coming years.
In comparison to the UK, US, and China, Eurozone member states have already implemented greater spending reductions; however, their debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from 83.6 percent in 2019 to 88.7 percent at the start of 2024, with budget deficits in several of the largest economies—France included—widening considerably.
Brussels had suspended its fiscal rules at the pandemic’s outset, but these have now been reinstated, tightening fiscal conditions that are anticipated to last well into the future.
To date, 21 EU member states have submitted their plans detailing strategies to reduce spending over the next four to seven years.
Among the most noteworthy proposals is one from newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who aims to curtail the deficit of the EU’s second-largest economy within the 3 percent limit by 2029.
Spain and Italy have set even more aggressive targets for compliance, aiming to achieve the deficit threshold in 2024 and 2026 respectively. While Spain’s goal appears achievable, buoyed by one of Europe’s fastest growth rates, economists harbor reservations about Italy’s ambitious plans.
Both France and Spain are projected to contribute positively to regional growth in 2024, particularly as the German economy experiences stagnation amid political turmoil that has delayed the presentation of its spending plans to Brussels.
The political instability in Berlin, however, could lead to delayed fiscal decisions that ultimately hinder the region’s growth. Presently, Germany maintains a more favorable fiscal position than its EU counterparts, with expectations that its deficit will meet a modest 1.6 percent of GDP this year — well within the stipulated 3 percent threshold.
Zettelmeyer noted that despite the challenges, monetary policy could offer a temporary respite with interest rates still relatively high. “The ECB has enough firepower to offset the fiscal drag,” he commented.
While potential rate cuts could stimulate growth, Posen cautioned that such an approach might not be ideal. The combination of lower rates and spending cuts risks exacerbating inequality—strict fiscal policies often impact the economically vulnerable disproportionately while looser monetary conditions tend to favor asset holders first—and could put the ECB in a difficult position should inflation make a resurgence.
Data visualisation by Janina Conboye
**Interview with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director of Bruegel**
**Interviewer**: Thank you for joining us today, Jeromin. With recent developments regarding the EU’s long-term budget and the reintroduction of strict fiscal rules, what do you believe is the biggest impact these changes will have on economic growth in Europe?
**Zettelmeyer**: Thank you for having me. The biggest impact will likely be a significant reduction in public investment. As countries adjust to stricter budget deficits, they may cut back on essential investments needed for long-term growth. This approach could severely hinder the EU’s ability to remain competitive, especially when juxtaposed with the fiscal policies in the U.S., which are currently far more aggressive.
**Interviewer**: You mentioned that the focus on fiscal restraint could prevent necessary investments. Can you elaborate on why you think the EU will struggle to meet its investment needs?
**Zettelmeyer**: Absolutely. There’s a clear investment gap between the EU and the U.S. that needs to be addressed. Without new EU-level funding or an increase in public investment, we simply won’t achieve the levels needed for growth. It’s a tightrope walk; if member states adhere too strictly to these fiscal rules without flexibility, the necessary infrastructure and innovation investments will take a back seat, ultimately stifling economic growth.
**Interviewer**: Recent forecasts have projected a decrease in Eurozone growth rates. How do current political climates, particularly with the impending return of Trump, factor into this economic outlook?
**Zettelmeyer**: Trump’s electoral victory poses significant challenges for Europe. His policies may lead to increased tariffs on European products, which would create additional strain on economies that are already facing a range of obstacles, from declining exports to rising geopolitical risks. This unpredictability only adds to existing economic anxiety and complicates investment decisions.
**Interviewer**: There’s also a discussion around public versus private investments. What role do you see for public investment in this context?
**Zettelmeyer**: Public investment is vital. While private sectors will indeed play a large role, the state must step in to ensure foundational investments in infrastructure, climate initiatives, and technological innovation. The challenges we face are immense, and without robust public investment, we risk falling short in addressing issues like climate change and social welfare, which could further exacerbate inequalities across the region.
**Interviewer**: Given these concerns, is there a path forward that you think policymakers should consider to revive investment and growth?
**Zettelmeyer**: A radical rethink is necessary. We need to broaden the conversation beyond mere fiscal consolidation and seek policies that encourage growth. This involves advocating for higher public investment and finding innovative funding sources. The challenges are not just immediate; they require long-term strategies that can sustain Europe’s economic viability amidst rapid global changes.
**Interviewer**: Thank you, Jeromin, for providing these insights. It’s clear that navigating the current economic landscape will require careful consideration and proactive measures.
**Zettelmeyer**: Thank you for having me. It’s a critical time for Europe, and I hope policymakers will be bold in their decisions moving forward.