EU Commission updates its economic forecast | SN.at

2024-11-15 03:36:00

The European Commission will present its autumn economic forecast in Brussels on Friday. In its last estimate in May, the authority assumed that the EU economy would develop slightly better than previously expected. At that time, growth of 1.0 percent was expected for 2024. It is questionable whether the Commission will maintain its assessment from the spring given the weak growth in Germany.

Looking ahead, Donald Trump’s election victory in the USA is likely to play a role, as he threatens Europe with punitive tariffs on many products. In May, the authority forecast growth of 0.8 percent for the euro zone for the current year. In May, it assumed minimal growth of 0.1 percent for the German economy in 2024, and 0.3 percent plus for Austria. Wifo and IHS now assume that the domestic economy will shrink this year.

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What ⁣factors might ⁢lead ⁣the European Commission⁤ to revise its growth forecasts for the ‍EU‌ economy in 2024?

**Interview with‍ Dr. Anna Fischer, Economic Analyst**

**Interviewer:** Thank⁤ you for joining us today, Dr.​ Fischer. With the European⁤ Commission ⁢set to ⁤release its autumn economic forecast this Friday, many are questioning ‍whether the previously estimated growth rate of 1.0 percent for the EU economy in 2024 will ⁣hold. Given the recent weak growth figures from Germany, do you think that the Commission will ⁤adjust ‍their‍ expectations downward?

**Dr. Fischer:** Thank you ⁢for having me. It’s certainly​ a possibility. Germany is the largest economy in the EU, and their struggles ⁣could have a​ ripple​ effect on ⁣the entire region’s growth⁤ outlook. If the Commission acknowledges this, we could see ⁢a more conservative estimate moving forward.

**Interviewer:** Another factor looming over the forecast is Donald Trump’s potential return to power​ in ⁤the United‍ States and his threats to impose punitive ⁢tariffs on European goods. What impact do you think ⁢this could ⁣have ⁤on the EU economy?

**Dr. Fischer:** The fear of ⁢tariffs⁣ can create a tense atmosphere for⁣ trade relations. ‌If Trump ‌were to implement such measures, it could disrupt supply chains ⁣and lead to increased costs‍ for European producers, which in turn could stifle growth. The uncertainty itself may deter investment, impacting economic stability in the ‍region.

**Interviewer:** As we look ahead, there’s also the forecasted minimal growth of 0.1 ⁤percent for Germany and 0.3 percent for Austria in 2024. With‍ Wifo and IHS projecting a contraction for the domestic economy this year, how should European leaders‌ respond?

**Dr. Fischer:** Leaders need to take proactive measures​ to stimulate growth. ⁣This could include‌ investment in green ⁣technologies and infrastructure,⁤ incentivizing innovation, and creating favorable conditions for businesses to​ thrive. But they also need to remain‌ flexible, as external factors like U.S. trade⁤ policies can ​change ⁢rapidly.

**Interviewer:** Those are some insightful points. Now, to our readers:⁢ What are your thoughts on the potential for economic growth in the EU amidst⁣ such uncertainty? Should European​ leaders prioritize addressing ‍domestic issues⁤ or ⁣focus on international relations? We would love ⁣to hear your opinions and spark a debate.