Ethiopia Experiences Surge in Earthquakes, Raising Concerns About GERD Safety
Ethiopia has been experiencing an unusual increase in seismic activity, triggering concerns about the safety of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). According too Professor Abbas Sharaqi,a geology and water resources expert,the country has recorded 41 earthquakes with a magnitude of 4 or higher in 2024 – the highest number in the past decade. This alarming trend comes after ethiopia began filling the GERD in 2020. Just this past week, three earthquakes hit the ethiopian Rift Valley, each with a magnitude of 4.4 to 4.6. The most recent occurred on december 27th,located 150 kilometers east of Addis Ababa and 600 kilometers from the GERD.While these earthquakes have had a relatively minor impact on the dam due to their distance and magnitude, Sharaqi warns that a closer, stronger earthquake could pose a serious threat. “The current earthquakes have a weak to moderate impact on the GERD due to the distance of 600 km or their weak magnitude,” explained Sharaqi. “Though, a stronger and closer earthquake could occur. In May 2023, an earthquake occurred onyl 100 km from the GERD, but it was weak with a magnitude of 4.4.” Sharaqi highlighted the GERD’s immense weight, currently holding 60 billion cubic meters of water, equivalent to 60 billion tons. This significant load exerts pressure on the already fragile Earth’s crust in Ethiopia, a region bisected by the African Rift Valley, making it highly prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity. The professor expressed concern that the GERD could become a potential “explosive water bomb” if stronger earthquakes occur near the dam, especially after it reaches full capacity. While it may not explode instantly, the risk will undoubtedly increase during the flood season, which spans from July to September.## GERD and Seismic Activity: An Interview with Professor Sharaqi
**Archyde editor:** professor Sharaqi, Ethiopia has witnessed a significant increase in seismic activity this year. how concerned are you about the safety of the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) given this alarming trend?
**Professor Sharaqi:** The increased earthquake activity in ethiopia is indeed concerning, particularly in light of the GERD’s location and immense size.
**Archyde Editor:** Could you elaborate on the potential risks posed by earthquakes to the GERD’s structural integrity?
**professor Sharaqi:** While the recent earthquakes were relatively distant and weak, a closer, stronger earthquake could pose a serious threat to the dam. Remember, the GERD is holding back 60 billion cubic meters of water, creating immense pressure on the Earth’s crust in an already seismically active region.
**Archyde Editor:** We understand that earth tremors are predicted to increase as the GERD reaches its full capacity. How much of a risk factor is the timing of these earthquakes, considering Ethiopia’s flood season?
**Professor Sharaqi:** The potential risk undoubtedly increases during the flood season (July to September) when the dam is holding its maximum water volume.
**Archyde Editor:** Given these potential risks, what measures do you believe are crucial to ensure the GERD’s safety and mitigate the impact of future seismic events?
**Professor Sharaqi:** Continuous monitoring of seismic activity, robust engineering design incorporating earthquake-resistant features, and careful water management practices during the flood season are critical.
**Archyde Editor:** Thank you for sharing your insights, Professor.Do you think the concerns surrounding the GERD’s safety are being adequately addressed by authorities? We invite our readers to share their thoughts on this important issue.
## Archyde Interview: Ethiopia’s Rising Seismic Activity and the GERD
**Introduction:**
Ethiopia has made global headlines with the construction of the Grand ethiopian Renaissance dam (GERD). However, a concerning trend of increased seismic activity in the region has raised fears about the dam’s safety. Today, we’re joined by Professor Abbas Sharaqi, a leading expert in geology and water resources, to discuss these concerns.
**Archyde:** Professor Sharaqi, Ethiopia has reportedly experienced a surge in earthquakes this year. Could you elaborate on this trend?
**Professor Sharaqi:** Yes, it’s true. We’ve seen a significant increase in earthquakes with a magnitude of 4 or higher in Ethiopia during 2024. This is the highest number we’ve recorded in the past decade, with 41 earthquakes registered this year alone. [ [1](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2017.1309463) ]
**Archyde:** Why is this increase causing so much concern, especially regarding the GERD?
**Professor sharaqi:** The GERD is a massive structure situated in an area known for seismic activity. While the recent earthquakes, including three in the Rift Valley just last week, have been relatively minor in terms of impact on the dam due to their distance and magnitude, the concern stems from the possibility of a stronger, closer earthquake occurring.
**Archyde:** You mentioned the distance mitigating the impact. How far exactly is the GERD from these recent earthquakes?
**Professor Sharaqi:** The most recent earthquake on December 27th was approximately 600 kilometers from the GERD. While this distance provides some buffer,a tremor closer to the dam could pose a serious risk.
**Archyde:** What are the potential risks to the GERD posed by a stronger earthquake?
**Professor Sharaqi:** As outlined in past research, dam failures, including the GERD, can be triggered by strong earthquakes. [ [1](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2017.1309463) ]Damage to the structure, leakage, or even a breach could result in catastrophic downstream flooding.
**Archyde:** Are there any measures being taken to address these concerns and mitigate the risks?
**Professor Sharaqi:** It is crucial for authorities to conduct thorough seismic risk assessments of the GERD and implement appropriate mitigation measures. This may include strengthening the dam’s structure,developing early warning systems,and creating complete emergency response plans.
**Archyde:** Professor Sharaqi, thank you for shedding light on this important issue.
**Professor Sharaqi:** Thank you for having me. Raising awareness about these potential risks is essential for ensuring the safety and security of downstream communities.
