As expected, the opposition National Association (RN) won the first round of early French parliamentary elections. With its leader, Jordan Bardella, it achieved the support of 34 percent of voters, according to estimates released following the polls closed. The left-wing bloc Nouveau front populaire, in which the socialists, communists, greens and the Unsubdued France party united before the elections, can get 28 percent of the vote, according to exit polls. Emmanuel Macron’s centrist ruling bloc will get over 20 percent. Right-wing Republicans will get around ten percent. The new composition of the parliament and thus the government will be clear only following the second round, scheduled for July 7.
Voter turnout was estimated to be between 67.5 and 69.7 percent, the highest in a decade. How many seats in the National Assembly each block will get will be decided only in the second round of elections. This will be held on July 7.
For Macron, the estimates of the results of the first round mean a big defeat, the DPA agency wrote. Macron’s long-time political companion and leader of RN MPs in parliament, Le Pen, said Macron’s camp was “almost wiped out” in the first round of the election. She also called on voters to give her party an absolute majority in parliament in the second round.
Reacting to the election results, RN leader Jordan Bardella said he was ready to become prime minister if his party won an absolute majority following the second round. He also said that in such a case he will be a “cohabiting” prime minister who will “respect the constitution and the office of the president of the republic, but will be uncompromising in terms of the policies we will implement,” Reuters reported.
The French political system refers to cohabitation as a situation where the parliamentary majority has a different political opinion than the president.
According to initial estimates, Le Pen’s party and its allies might become the strongest force in the lower house of parliament with 230 to 280 seats. However, it will probably not achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats. The left might win 125 to 200 seats, Macron’s liberal camp is in danger of falling to only 60 to 100 seats. However, the estimates are very uncertain due to the electoral system.
Macron’s reaction
“The high turnout in the first round (…) testifies to the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and to the desire to clarify the political situation,” Macron said in a written statement, according to AFP. At the same time, he called for broad support for clearly “Republican and Democratic” candidates in the second round of elections.
If none of the camps won an absolute majority, demanding coalition negotiations would await France. The formation of an alliance of fundamentally different political groupings is difficult to predict. Although the opposition forces might overthrow the current government of Macron’s camp, without a coalition agreement, no other government is likely to secure a majority in parliament, DPA reminds.
Macron unexpectedly dissolved the National Assembly and called early elections on June 9, immediately following the EP election results were announced, in which his allies fell well short of the opposition RN. After the dissolution of parliament, elections must be held between the 20th and 40th day, and Macron chose the earliest possible date.
Macron convenes the government on Monday on how to proceed once morest Le Pen’s victory. RN breaks records
mar , June 30, 2024
ELECTIONS IN FRANCE
President Emmanuel Macron according to agencies The AFP called its government on Monday. Macron, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and members of the cabinet will meet six days before the second round to decide on a strategy to reverse a potential power grab by Marine Le Pen. The government expects that violence might break out following the elections. There are 5,000 soldiers on standby.
In the presidential camp, one of the questions between the two rounds will be the question of voting instructions once morest the RN and whether or not to withdraw the Macronists if a candidate from another party does better once morest the right in the first round.
According to diary According to Le Figaro, Macron is also prepared in the event of government cohabitation, whether with the right or the left, to later dissolve parliament once more and call new elections. This should happen already in the second half of next year.
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