2024-04-03 01:21:20
Image source: Reuters
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The airstrike destroyed the Iranian consulate building (right) next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus
Article information
- Author, Baran Abbasi
- Role, BBC News
-
4 hours ago
Iran vowed a harsh response to the air strike that targeted its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Monday.
Iran’s ambassador to Damascus said that 13 people were killed, including seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and six Syrian citizens.
Among those killed was Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior member of the foreign branch of the Quds Force, affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Israel did not comment, but Iran and Syria blamed it for the attack.
“This was not only an attack on the Iranian state itself, but also on the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force,” said Fawaz Girgis, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. “It also represents a major loss for the Quds Force, which is already working to coordinate and transfer weapons and technical expertise to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.
The attack sparked angry criticism from prominent figures in the Iranian government, as well as threats of retaliation once morest Israel.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned: “We will make them regret committing this crime and carrying out similar actions.”
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi described the attack as “an inhumane, aggressive and despicable act… and it will not go unanswered.” In a phone call with his Syrian counterpart, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian described the attack as a violation of all international obligations and agreements.
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During a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) promised that the latest attack “will not go unanswered.”
The Iranian Foreign Minister pointed the finger directly at Israel, and the ministry’s website quoted Abdollahian as saying that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had “completely lost his mental balance.”
Experts told the BBC that these comments raised fears of further violence between Israel and Iran’s allies amid the Gaza war, but Iran’s options for retaliation may be limited in scope and number.
Ali Sadrzadeh, a writer and analyst specializing in Middle East affairs, said, “Iran is unable to enter into a major confrontation with Israel due to its military capabilities and economic and political situation, but it will have to come up with a response for domestic consumption and to protect its reputation among its regional allies.”
This opinion is shared by Fawaz Girgis, who believes that Iran will not take direct revenge on Israel, “even though Israel has actually humiliated Iran and inflicted a defeat on it.”
Girgis says Iran is likely to exercise “strategic patience” because it will prioritize a more important goal: making a nuclear bomb.
He added: “(Iran) is accumulating power, is enriching uranium, and is making progress in this regard. The biggest prize for Iran is not actually sending 50 ballistic missiles and killing 100 Israelis, but rather creating a strategic deterrent not only once morest the Israelis, but also once morest the United States.” United States of America.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, missile and drone attacks launched by Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen have escalated once morest Israeli interests, but they appear to have reduced the pace of their attacks, in order to provoke Israel and escalate into a large-scale war.
“Even an attack on an Israeli diplomatic mission by Iranian-affiliated forces seems difficult to imagine,” says Ali Sadrzadeh, a writer and analyst specializing in Middle East affairs, although he expects that the current attacks launched by Iranian-backed Houthi forces once morest ships in the Red Sea And the Gulf of Aden is “highly likely to continue,” to continue operating, especially once morest ships linked in one way or another to Israel or the United States.
But will the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah militia (which was already exchanging fire with Israel on its northern border) respond to the Damascus attack?
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The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia on Israel’s northern border can count on tens of thousands of fighters
The Hezbollah militia is one of the most heavily armed non-state military forces in the world – independent estimates suggest it has between 20,000 and 50,000 fighters, many of whom are well-trained and battle-hardened from their involvement in the Syrian civil war.
In addition, the organization has an arsenal estimated at regarding 130,000 missiles and missiles, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Despite this, the experts the BBC spoke to believe that Hezbollah is unlikely to undertake a major escalation once morest Israel.
Foz Gerges says, “Hezbollah does not really want to fall into Israel’s trap because it realizes that Benjamin Netanyahu and the war government are desperately trying to expand the war. Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future depends on the continuation of the war in Gaza and its escalation on the northern fronts with Hezbollah and even with Iran itself.”
Ali Sadrzadeh, a writer and analyst specializing in Middle East affairs, believes that Iran is more likely to show a “symbolic” response rather than risk war with Israel.
Ali Sadrzadeh says: “Iran is expert in carrying out symbolic attacks such as the one with which it responded to the killing of its most important military commander, Qassem Soleimani,” referring to the ballistic missile attack that Iran launched on the Iraqi Al-Asad Air Base on January 8, 2020. .
Iran targeted the Ain al-Assad base in response to a US drone strike earlier in January in Baghdad, which led to the killing of a prominent commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.
Image source: Security media cell via EPA
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Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US airstrike on his car at Baghdad airport in January 2020.
Although Iran vowed “severe revenge” for Soleimani’s killing, no US military personnel stationed at the base were killed, and there were reports that the US military had been warned in advance of the incoming missiles.
Fawaz Girgis believes that the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus “represents a strategic escalation aimed at undermining Iran’s defense, showing the world that Iran is a paper tiger, and breaking the back of the Iranian security services.”
Girgis concluded by saying: “But we will not see what he called a “direct, earth-shattering response from Iran.”
Youssef Azizi, a public administration scholar at Virginia Tech’s School of Public and International Affairs, believes there will be a struggle going on behind the scenes between those in power who say Iran should seek to establish itself as a nuclear power to deter aggression from Israel and hard-line figures. Which proposes launching direct attacks on Israel and its military installations on the other hand.
But he told the BBC that analysis of interviews with state media and major social media accounts suggested a policy of “strategic patience” was likely to prevail.
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The consulate building next to the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, was turned into rubble last Monday
If no major military action is likely, what other recourses are available to the Iranians?
Tal Pavel, of the Israel Institute for Cyber Policy Studies, told the BBC: “We cannot rule out that Iran may be using cyberspace as another dimension of retaliation once morest Israel, either to carry out cyber attacks on IT and to paralyze, steal and leak information, or to at least try to divert attention.” “.
He added: “We know that over the past decade and a half, there has been an ongoing covert cyber war between Iran and Israel, and in this case, it may be just another phase.”
It will be up to Iran, and in particular the Supreme Leader, to decide what action the country will take. But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani does not disclose his plans.
He warned that Iran “reserves the right to respond and will decide the type of response and punish the aggressor.”
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